比特币减半引发前所未有的稀缺，助长价格飙升

Bybit 的报告研究了即将到来的比特币减半对加密货币交易所内供应动态的影响。由于减半导致BTC供应量减少50%，交易所将面临大幅供应紧张，BTC供应量仅剩9个月。这种稀缺性加上卖方供应量的减少，将提高比特币的稀有性，使其变得比黄金更加稀缺。该报告预测，这种供应紧张可能会导致比特币价格大幅上涨，尽管它可能无法与减半前的涨幅相匹配。

Bitcoin Halving Event to Create Unprecedented Scarcity, Driving Price Surge

比特币减半事件造成前所未有的稀缺，推动价格飙升

April 18, 2024

2024 年 4 月 18 日

Bybit Report Illuminates Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Supply Dynamics

Bybit 报告阐明了比特币减半对供应动态的影响

Bybit, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange and trading platform, has released a comprehensive report analyzing the impending Bitcoin halving event and its profound implications for the cryptocurrency's supply and price dynamics.

著名的加密货币交易和交易平台Bybit发布了一份综合报告，分析了即将到来的比特币减半事件及其对加密货币供应和价格动态的深远影响。

Bitcoin Supply Crunch on the Horizon

比特币供应紧缩即将到来

As the halving event draws near, the supply of Bitcoin held on global cryptocurrency exchanges has been dwindling rapidly. Bybit estimates that approximately nine months' worth of BTC remains on exchanges, highlighting a potential supply crunch.

随着减半事件的临近，全球加密货币交易所持有的比特币供应量迅速减少。 Bybit 估计，交易所中仍有大约 9 个月的 BTC，这凸显了潜在的供应紧缩。

This scarcity is further exacerbated by the constant influx of funds into Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which is currently estimated at $500 million daily. This translates to an outflow of approximately 7,142 BTC per day from exchanges, suggesting that all remaining BTC reserves on exchanges could be depleted within nine months.

资金不断涌入现货比特币 ETF，进一步加剧了这种稀缺性，目前估计每天有 5 亿美元。这意味着每天大约有 7,142 BTC 从交易所流出，这表明交易所上所有剩余的 BTC 储备可能会在 9 个月内耗尽。

Halving Event to Intensify Supply Squeeze

减半事件加剧供应紧张

The upcoming halving event is a significant factor contributing to this supply crunch. This event, scheduled for late April, will reduce the issuance rate of new Bitcoin by 50%, effectively cutting miner rewards in half.

即将到来的减半事件是造成供应紧张的一个重要因素。该活动定于 4 月底举行，将使新比特币的发行率降低 50%，从而有效地将矿工奖励减少一半。

Bybit predicts a significant reduction in the sell-side supply of BTC flowing into Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) following the halving event. This will further amplify the supply squeeze and potentially drive Bitcoin prices upward.

Bybit 预测，减半事件后，流入中心化交易所（CEX）的 BTC 卖方供应量将大幅减少。这将进一步加剧供应紧张，并可能推动比特币价格上涨。

Bitcoin: Twice as Rare as Gold

比特币：比黄金稀有两倍

Bybit's report draws comparisons between Bitcoin's supply post-halving and that of gold. The exchange emphasizes Bitcoin's growing stature as a safe haven asset, particularly among seasoned investors.

Bybit 的报告将比特币减半后的供应量与黄金的供应量进行了比较。该交易所强调比特币作为避险资产的地位日益增强，尤其是在经验丰富的投资者中。

The halving event is expected to enhance Bitcoin's scarcity significantly, making it an even rarer asset than gold. Bybit's analysis, based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, indicates that Bitcoin's S2F ratio will surge to 112 post-halving, surpassing gold's current ratio of 60.

减半事件预计将显着提高比特币的稀缺性，使其成为比黄金更稀有的资产。 Bybit基于Stock-to-Flow（S2F）比率的分析表明，减半后比特币的S2F比率将飙升至112，超过黄金当前的60比率。

"Each Bitcoin halving strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin as not just a currency but a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold," stated Ben Zhou, Co-founder and CEO of Bybit. "This upcoming halving will propel BTC into an era of unprecedented scarcity, making it twice as rare as gold."

Bybit 联合创始人兼首席执行官周本表示：“比特币每次减半都强化了比特币不仅是一种货币，而且是一种稀缺数字资产，类似于数字黄金的形象。” “即将到来的减半将推动比特币进入一个前所未有的稀缺时代，使其稀有程度是黄金的两倍。”

Post-Halving Price Surge Anticipated

预计减半后价格将飙升

The report highlights the strong correlation between Bitcoin's supply squeeze and its price movements. Analysts predict a notable upward price pressure on Bitcoin in the wake of the halving event.

该报告强调了比特币供应紧张与其价格走势之间的密切相关性。分析师预测，减半事件后比特币价格将面临显着的上行压力。

While the magnitude of the price surge is expected to be less pronounced than the pre-halving bull run, it is anticipated that BTC's price could reach new all-time highs.

虽然价格飙升的幅度预计不会像减半前的牛市那么明显，但预计 BTC 的价格可能会创下历史新高。

Conclusion

结论

Bybit's report provides a comprehensive assessment of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event and its profound impact on the cryptocurrency's supply and price dynamics. The report concludes that the halving event will create an unprecedented level of scarcity, further enhancing Bitcoin's status as a safe haven asset and potentially driving its price to new heights.

Bybit的报告对即将到来的比特币减半事件及其对加密货币供应和价格动态的深远影响进行了全面评估。报告的结论是，减半事件将造成前所未有的稀缺程度，进一步增强比特币作为避险资产的地位，并有可能将其价格推向新的高度。