比特币减半刺激市场震荡，激发矿工的长期乐观情绪

比特币每四年减半一次，减少了新创建的代币数量，导致比特币价格可能上涨。在此事件中，CleanSpark、IREN 和 Riot Platforms 等大型比特币挖矿公司表达了乐观态度，预计由于效率措施和挖矿市场份额的增加，将保持盈利。尽管减半对收入产生了影响，但由于比特币供应紧缩的说法历来推动价格飙升，矿商们仍然保持乐观态度。

Bitcoin's Halving: A Catalyst for Market Shakeup and Miner Optimism

比特币减半：市场震荡和矿工乐观情绪的催化剂

The impending Bitcoin halving, scheduled for late Friday, has ignited widespread anticipation within the cryptocurrency community. This transformative event is poised to reshape market dynamics, with both bullish and bearish implications for miners and investors alike.

即将于周五晚间举行的比特币减半引发了加密货币社区的广泛期待。这一变革性事件将重塑市场动态，对矿商和投资者都有看涨和看跌的影响。

At the core of the halving lies its intended function: to decelerate the issuance of new Bitcoins, thereby creating a supply constraint that could potentially drive up the price of BTC. However, the halving also introduces a significant challenge for Bitcoin miners, whose profitability hinges on the revenue generated from creating new coins.

减半的核心在于其预期功能：减缓新比特币的发行，从而造成供应限制，可能会推高比特币的价格。然而，减半也给比特币矿工带来了重大挑战，他们的盈利能力取决于创造新币所产生的收入。

Decrypt has delved into the perspectives of leading public Bitcoin mining companies to assess their preparedness for the halving and their outlook for the post-halving landscape.

Decrypt 深入研究了领先的公共比特币挖矿公司的观点，以评估他们对减半的准备情况以及对减半后前景的展望。

Mining Optimization: Efficiency as a Paramount Factor

采矿优化：效率是最重要的因素

Isaac Holyoak, Chief Communications Officer at CleanSpark, emphasizes the critical role of efficiency in maintaining profitability amid dwindling revenues. By optimizing their operations, miners can mitigate the impact of the halving.

CleanSpark 首席通信官 Isaac Holyoak 强调，在收入减少的情况下，效率对于维持盈利能力至关重要。通过优化运营，矿工可以减轻减半的影响。

"Difficulty could see as much as a 15% drop post-halving," Holyoak explains. "Miners who remain afloat will reap additional rewards, increasing their share of the total mining market."

“减半后难度可能会下降 15%，”Holyoak 解释道。 “继续生存的矿工将获得额外的回报，增加他们在整个采矿市场中的份额。”

Market Sentiment and Stock Performance

市场情绪和股票表现

Despite the bearish sentiment pervading the broader mining stock market, CleanSpark has emerged as an outlier, with its stock outperforming its peers. While Texas-based Riot Platforms and British Columbia's IREN have witnessed significant declines, CleanSpark's stock has surged by 50% year to date.

尽管整个矿业股票市场普遍弥漫着看跌情绪，但 CleanSpark 却成为了一个异类，其股票表现优于同行。尽管总部位于德克萨斯州的 Riot Platforms 和不列颠哥伦比亚省的 IREN 股价大幅下跌，但 CleanSpark 的股价今年迄今已飙升 50%。

Financial Analysis: Assessing Profitability

财务分析：评估盈利能力

A recent analysis by Cantor Fitzgerald suggests that major public miners could maintain profitability even after the halving, assuming a Bitcoin price of $70,000. This analysis aligns with the optimism expressed by IREN, which anticipates resilient margins and continued growth potential.

坎托·菲茨杰拉德 (Cantor Fitzgerald) 最近的一项分析表明，假设比特币价格为 70,000 美元，即使在减半之后，主要的公共矿商也可以保持盈利能力。这一分析与 IREN 表达的乐观态度一致，后者预计利润率将保持弹性，并具有持续增长潜力。

Power Costs: A Crucial Factor for Miners

电力成本：矿工的一个关键因素

IREN's competitive power costs of approximately 4 cents per kilowatt hour, attributed to its vertical integration and flexible approach to energy sourcing, provide a significant advantage in reducing operating expenses.

IREN 的电力成本约为每千瓦时 4 美分，这得益于其垂直整合和灵活的能源采购方法，在降低运营费用方面具有显着优势。

Demand Response Programs: Compensation for Curtailing Operations

需求响应计划：对削减运营的补偿

Both IREN and Riot have benefited from demand response programs, which compensate miners for temporarily suspending operations during peak grid stress. This strategy optimizes both profitability and environmental sustainability.

IREN 和 Riot 都受益于需求响应计划，该计划对矿工在电网压力高峰期间暂时停止运营进行补偿。该战略优化了盈利能力和环境可持续性。

Mining Pools: Adapting to the Halving

矿池：适应减半

Foundry, the world's largest Bitcoin mining pool, observes a growing maturity among public Bitcoin miners. Many members have invested in state-of-the-art mining rigs and leverage aftermarket firmware to adjust their deployments based on market conditions.

全球最大的比特币矿池 Foundry 见证了公共比特币矿工的日益成熟。许多成员投资了最先进的采矿设备，并利用售后固件根据市场情况调整其部署。

Home Mining: A Challenging Future

家庭采矿：充满挑战的未来

Foundry anticipates that profitable home mining may cease to exist after the halving, as institutional players with access to economies of scale will dominate the industry. However, IREN remains optimistic about microgrid mining configurations using renewable energy sources and efficient mining hardware.

Foundry 预计，在减半后，有利可图的家庭挖矿可能不复存在，因为具有规模经济的机构参与者将主导该行业。然而，IREN 对使用可再生能源和高效挖矿硬件的微电网挖矿配置仍然持乐观态度。

Long-Term Bullishness: Bitcoin's Supply Crunch

长期看涨：比特币的供应紧缩

Despite the potential short-term revenue decline, miners remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. The narrative of a supply crunch has historically fueled exponential price surges, compensating for the temporary setback in mining revenues.

尽管短期收入可能下降，但矿商仍然看好比特币的长期前景。从历史上看，供应紧缩的说法曾助长价格指数级飙升，弥补了矿业收入的暂时下降。

Gold Price Parity: A Potential Milestone

黄金价格平价：一个潜在的里程碑

IREN projects that Bitcoin's annual inflation rate will fall to 0.85% post-halving, underscoring its potential as a store of value comparable to gold. Achieving price parity with gold could imply a Bitcoin price of $700,000.

IREN 预计，减半后，比特币的年通胀率将降至 0.85%，凸显其作为可与黄金媲美的价值储存手段的潜力。实现与黄金平价可能意味着比特币价格将达到 70 万美元。

With institutional and retail demand for Bitcoin ETFs growing and the anticipation of looser monetary policy in 2024, IREN predicts upward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the coming months.

随着机构和零售对比特币 ETF 的需求不断增长，以及对 2024 年货币政策宽松的预期，IREN 预测未来几个月比特币价格将面临上行压力。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin's halving is a transformative event that will reshape market dynamics and challenge miners' profitability. While short-term revenue drops are expected, efficiency, innovation, and financial planning will determine the success of miners in navigating this transition. Despite the challenges, miners remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, citing its supply crunch potential and its increasing acceptance as a viable asset class.

比特币减半是一个变革性事件，将重塑市场动态并挑战矿商的盈利能力。虽然短期收入预计会下降，但效率、创新和财务规划将决定矿商能否成功渡过这一转型。尽管面临挑战，矿商仍然看好比特币的长期前景，理由是其供应紧缩的潜力以及它作为可行资产类别的日益接受度。