比特幣減半刺激市場震盪，激發礦工長期的樂觀情緒

比特幣每四年減半一次，減少了新創建的代幣數量，導致比特幣價格可能上漲。在此事件中，CleanSpark、IREN 和 Riot Platforms 等大型比特幣挖礦公司表達了樂觀態度，預計由於效率措施和挖礦市場份額的增加，將保持盈利。儘管減半對收入產生了影響，但由於比特幣供應緊縮的說法歷來推動價格飆升，礦商們仍然保持樂觀態度。

Bitcoin's Halving: A Catalyst for Market Shakeup and Miner Optimism

比特幣減半：市場震盪與礦工樂觀情緒的催化劑

The impending Bitcoin halving, scheduled for late Friday, has ignited widespread anticipation within the cryptocurrency community. This transformative event is poised to reshape market dynamics, with both bullish and bearish implications for miners and investors alike.

即將於週五晚間舉行的比特幣減半引發了加密貨幣社群的廣泛期待。這次變革性事件將重塑市場動態，對礦商和投資者都有看漲和看跌的影響。

At the core of the halving lies its intended function: to decelerate the issuance of new Bitcoins, thereby creating a supply constraint that could potentially drive up the price of BTC. However, the halving also introduces a significant challenge for Bitcoin miners, whose profitability hinges on the revenue generated from creating new coins.

減半的核心在於其預期功能：減緩新比特幣的發行，從而造成供應限制，可能會推高比特幣的價格。然而，減半也為比特幣礦工帶來了重大挑戰，他們的獲利能力取決於創造新幣所產生的收入。

Decrypt has delved into the perspectives of leading public Bitcoin mining companies to assess their preparedness for the halving and their outlook for the post-halving landscape.

Decrypt 深入研究了領先的公共比特幣挖礦公司的觀點，以評估他們對減半的準備情況以及對減半後前景的展望。

Mining Optimization: Efficiency as a Paramount Factor

採礦優化：效率是最重要的因素

Isaac Holyoak, Chief Communications Officer at CleanSpark, emphasizes the critical role of efficiency in maintaining profitability amid dwindling revenues. By optimizing their operations, miners can mitigate the impact of the halving.

CleanSpark 首席通訊官 Isaac Holyoak 強調，在收入減少的情況下，效率對於維持獲利能力至關重要。透過優化運營，礦工可以減輕減半的影響。

"Difficulty could see as much as a 15% drop post-halving," Holyoak explains. "Miners who remain afloat will reap additional rewards, increasing their share of the total mining market."

「減半後難度可能會下降 15%，」Holyoak 解釋道。 “繼續生存的礦工將獲得額外的回報，增加他們在整個採礦市場中的份額。”

Market Sentiment and Stock Performance

市場情緒和股票表現

Despite the bearish sentiment pervading the broader mining stock market, CleanSpark has emerged as an outlier, with its stock outperforming its peers. While Texas-based Riot Platforms and British Columbia's IREN have witnessed significant declines, CleanSpark's stock has surged by 50% year to date.

儘管整個礦業股票市場普遍瀰漫著看跌情緒，但 CleanSpark 卻成為了一個異類，其股票表現優於同業。儘管總部位於德克薩斯州的 Riot Platforms 和不列顛哥倫比亞省的 IREN 股價大幅下跌，但 CleanSpark 的股價今年迄今已飆升 50%。

Financial Analysis: Assessing Profitability

財務分析：評估獲利能力

A recent analysis by Cantor Fitzgerald suggests that major public miners could maintain profitability even after the halving, assuming a Bitcoin price of $70,000. This analysis aligns with the optimism expressed by IREN, which anticipates resilient margins and continued growth potential.

坎托·菲茨杰拉德 (Cantor Fitzgerald) 最近的一項分析表明，假設比特幣價格為 70,000 美元，即使在減半之後，主要的公共礦商也可以保持盈利能力。這項分析與 IREN 表達的樂觀態度一致，後者預期利潤率將保持彈性，並具有持續成長潛力。

Power Costs: A Crucial Factor for Miners

電力成本：礦工的關鍵因素

IREN's competitive power costs of approximately 4 cents per kilowatt hour, attributed to its vertical integration and flexible approach to energy sourcing, provide a significant advantage in reducing operating expenses.

IREN 的電力成本約為每千瓦時 4 美分，這得益於其垂直整合和靈活的能源採購方法，在降低營運費用方面具有顯著優勢。

Demand Response Programs: Compensation for Curtailing Operations

需求響應計劃：對削減營運的補償

Both IREN and Riot have benefited from demand response programs, which compensate miners for temporarily suspending operations during peak grid stress. This strategy optimizes both profitability and environmental sustainability.

IREN 和 Riot 都受益於需求響應計劃，該計劃對礦工在電網壓力高峰期間暫時停止營運進行補償。該策略優化了盈利能力和環境永續性。

Mining Pools: Adapting to the Halving

礦池：適應減半

Foundry, the world's largest Bitcoin mining pool, observes a growing maturity among public Bitcoin miners. Many members have invested in state-of-the-art mining rigs and leverage aftermarket firmware to adjust their deployments based on market conditions.

全球最大的比特幣礦池 Foundry 見證了公共比特幣礦工的日益成熟。許多成員投資了最先進的採礦設備，並利用售後韌體根據市場情況調整其部署。

Home Mining: A Challenging Future

家庭採礦：充滿挑戰的未來

Foundry anticipates that profitable home mining may cease to exist after the halving, as institutional players with access to economies of scale will dominate the industry. However, IREN remains optimistic about microgrid mining configurations using renewable energy sources and efficient mining hardware.

Foundry 預計，在減半後，有利可圖的家庭挖礦可能不復存在，因為具有規模經濟的機構參與者將主導該行業。然而，IREN 對使用再生能源和高效挖礦硬體的微電網挖礦配置仍然持樂觀態度。

Long-Term Bullishness: Bitcoin's Supply Crunch

長期看漲：比特幣的供應緊縮

Despite the potential short-term revenue decline, miners remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. The narrative of a supply crunch has historically fueled exponential price surges, compensating for the temporary setback in mining revenues.

儘管短期收入可能下降，但礦商仍看好比特幣的長期前景。從歷史上看，供應緊縮的說法曾助長價格指數級飆升，彌補了礦業收入的暫時下降。

Gold Price Parity: A Potential Milestone

黃金價格平價：一個潛在的里程碑

IREN projects that Bitcoin's annual inflation rate will fall to 0.85% post-halving, underscoring its potential as a store of value comparable to gold. Achieving price parity with gold could imply a Bitcoin price of $700,000.

IREN 預計，減半後，比特幣的年通膨率將降至 0.85%，凸顯其作為可與黃金媲美的價值儲存手段的潛力。實現與黃金平價可能意味著比特幣價格將達到 70 萬美元。

With institutional and retail demand for Bitcoin ETFs growing and the anticipation of looser monetary policy in 2024, IREN predicts upward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the coming months.

隨著機構和零售對比特幣 ETF 的需求不斷增長，以及對 2024 年貨幣政策寬鬆的預期，IREN 預測未來幾個月比特幣價格將面臨上行壓力。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's halving is a transformative event that will reshape market dynamics and challenge miners' profitability. While short-term revenue drops are expected, efficiency, innovation, and financial planning will determine the success of miners in navigating this transition. Despite the challenges, miners remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, citing its supply crunch potential and its increasing acceptance as a viable asset class.

比特幣減半是一個變革性事件，將重塑市場動態並挑戰礦商的獲利能力。雖然短期收入預計會下降，但效率、創新和財務規劃將決定礦商能否成功渡過這項轉型。儘管面臨挑戰，礦商仍然看好比特幣的長期前景，理由是其供應緊縮的潛力以及它作為可行資產類別的日益接受度。