比特币减半：Marathon Digital 的前景和陷阱

尽管比特币（BTC）大幅飙升，但由于“加密货币冬天”的损害以及即将到来的比特币减半的不确定前景，马拉松数字（MARA）等主要矿业公司在很大程度上错失了机会。然而，由于减半可能有利于较大的公司，并且 MARA 的股票最近经历了增长，因此它提供了潜在的价值购买机会。尽管 MARA 和 BTC 之间的相关性减弱，但如果 BTC 达到 100,000 美元，MARA 可能会攀升至 35 至 40 美元之间的区间，甚至飙升至 1,400 美元，出现类似于 2020-2021 年表现的极端反弹。相反，如果BTC减半后表现不佳，MARA可能会面临下跌。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact on Marathon Digital: Prospects and Pitfalls

比特币减半对马拉松数字化的影响：前景和陷阱

As the long-awaited Bitcoin halving approaches, the spotlight shines on major Bitcoin mining firms, particularly Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA), the behemoth in the industry. Notably, these companies endured the brutal crypto winter with significant losses, casting a shadow over their prospects amidst the ongoing crypto market rally.

随着期待已久的比特币减半临近，主要的比特币挖矿公司成为人们关注的焦点，尤其是行业巨头 Marathon Digital（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）。值得注意的是，这些公司经历了残酷的加密货币冬天并遭受了重大损失，在持续的加密货币市场反弹中给它们的前景蒙上了阴影。

While the halving event typically triggers a surge in Bitcoin prices, the precise trajectory for miners remains uncertain. As mining rewards are set to diminish, Bitcoin's value must rise substantially to maintain profitability for these firms. For Marathon Digital, this threshold stands at an ambitious $120,000 for it to maintain parity with its 2021 bull market performance.

虽然减半事件通常会引发比特币价格飙升，但矿工的确切轨迹仍不确定。随着挖矿奖励逐渐减少，比特币的价值必须大幅上涨才能维持这些公司的盈利能力。对于 Marathon Digital 来说，这一门槛高达 12 万美元，以使其与 2021 年牛市表现保持一致。

Despite these challenges, experts anticipate that the halving may favor larger firms like Marathon Digital, potentially presenting value buying opportunities in late March 2024. Given its market dominance and recent stock performance that has mirrored the crypto market surge, MARA presents an intriguing investment proposition.

尽管存在这些挑战，专家预计减半可能有利于 Marathon Digital 等规模较大的公司，可能会在 2024 年 3 月下旬带来价值购买机会。鉴于其市场主导地位和近期的股票表现反映了加密货币市场的飙升，MARA 提出了一个有趣的投资主张。

Assessing MARA's Correlation with Bitcoin

评估 MARA 与比特币的相关性

Historically, Marathon Digital's stock has exhibited some correlation with Bitcoin's movements, albeit not as pronounced as other companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR). While Bitcoin's impressive 52-week surge of 147.67% was accompanied by MARA's 184.03% rise, the coin's year-to-date (YTD) rally of 58.95% was not mirrored by the miner, which declined 1.53% in the same period.

从历史上看，Marathon Digital 的股票与比特币的走势表现出一定的相关性，尽管不如 MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）等其他公司那么明显。虽然比特币连续 52 周飙升 147.67%，伴随着 MARA 的 184.03% 上涨，但比特币年初至今 (YTD) 58.95% 的涨幅并没有反映在该矿商身上，该矿商同期下跌了 1.53%。

Intriguingly, the correlation between Bitcoin and MARA appears to have weakened in recent weeks. Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high in March, while Marathon Digital shares reversed their earlier gains in 2024. However, the miner has regained momentum in the past five trading days, with a 7.17% climb to $22.58.

有趣的是，最近几周比特币和 MARA 之间的相关性似乎有所减弱。比特币在 3 月份飙升至历史新高，而 Marathon Digital 股价则扭转了 2024 年早些时候的涨幅。不过，该矿商在过去 5 个交易日中重拾势头，上涨 7.17% 至 22.58 美元。

Predicting MARA's Future Performance

预测MARA未来的表现

The recent volatility and evolving correlation between MARA and Bitcoin make precise stock price predictions for the future challenging. Historical data suggests that Marathon Digital shares could remain stable or even dip towards $20 if Bitcoin reaches $100,000.

最近的波动以及 MARA 和比特币之间不断变化的相关性使得对未来的准确股价预测变得充满挑战。历史数据表明，如果比特币达到 10 万美元，Marathon Digital 股价可能会保持稳定，甚至跌至 20 美元。

However, a closer examination of long-term and recent performance indicates that Marathon Digital has the potential to match or slightly exceed Bitcoin's rise. If the cryptocurrency reaches $100,000, MARA could potentially climb to a range between $35 and $40.

然而，对长期和近期表现的仔细研究表明，Marathon Digital 有潜力追平或略微超过比特币的涨幅。如果加密货币达到 100,000 美元，MARA 的价格可能会攀升至 35 至 40 美元之间。

Exceptional Rally Potential Under Favorable Bitcoin Conditions

在有利的比特币条件下，非凡的反弹潜力

Remarkably, Bitcoin's movements could have a disproportionate impact on Marathon Digital's shares. If BTC rallies in a manner similar to its previous halvings, perhaps reaching or surpassing Robert Kiyosaki's ambitious $300,000 price target for 2024, MARA could replicate its extraordinary 2020 and 2021 surge and soar towards $1,400.

值得注意的是，比特币的走势可能会对 Marathon Digital 的股价产生不成比例的影响。如果 BTC 以类似于之前减半的方式反弹，或许达到或超过 Robert Kiyosaki 雄心勃勃的 2024 年 30 万美元价格目标，MARA 可能会复制其 2020 年和 2021 年的非凡飙升并飙升至 1,400 美元。

While such a 6,000% rally may seem astonishing for a stock of Marathon Digital's current size, it's worth noting that 2024 has witnessed significant upward momentum in major stocks. For instance, Super Micro Computer's (NASDAQ: SMCI) involvement in artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled a 253.84% YTD rise, and MicroStrategy's connection to Bitcoin has driven a 148.79% surge.

虽然对于 Marathon Digital 目前规模的股票来说，如此 6,000% 的涨幅似乎令人震惊，但值得注意的是，2024 年主要股票出现了显着的上涨势头。例如，超微电脑（纳斯达克股票代码：SMCI）涉足人工智能（AI），年初至今股价上涨 253.84%，MicroStrategy 与比特币的联系推动股价飙升 148.79%。

Caution amidst Bitcoin Volatility

比特币波动需谨慎

Conversely, should Bitcoin fail to meet post-halving expectations and deliver only a modest rally, Marathon Digital faces the risk of plummeting back into penny stock territory due to concerns over its profitability.

相反，如果比特币未能满足减半后的预期并仅实现小幅上涨，马拉松数字公司将面临因盈利能力担忧而重回细价股领域的风险。

Navigating the fluctuations of the crypto market and the potential impact on Marathon Digital requires a balanced approach. While the halving event presents opportunities, it also carries inherent risks. Investors should carefully consider their investment strategies and risk tolerance before making decisions.

应对加密货币市场的波动以及对 Marathon Digital 的潜在影响需要采取平衡的方法。减半事件带来机遇的同时，也蕴含着固有的风险。投资者在做出决定前应仔细考虑自己的投资策略和风险承受能力。