比特幣減半：Marathon Digital 的前景與陷阱

儘管比特幣（BTC）大幅飆升，但由於「加密貨幣冬天」的損害以及即將到來的比特幣減半的不確定前景，馬拉松數字（MARA）等主要礦業公司在很大程度上錯失了機會。然而，由於減半可能有利於較大的公司，而 MARA 的股票最近經歷了成長，因此它提供了潛在的價值購買機會。儘管 MARA 和 BTC 之間的相關性減弱，但如果 BTC 達到 100,000 美元，MARA 可能會攀升至 35 至 40 美元之間的區間，甚至飆升至 1,400 美元，出現類似於 2020-2021 年表現的極端反彈。相反，如果BTC減半後表現不佳，MARA可能會面臨下跌。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact on Marathon Digital: Prospects and Pitfalls

比特幣減半對馬拉松數位化的影響：前景與陷阱

As the long-awaited Bitcoin halving approaches, the spotlight shines on major Bitcoin mining firms, particularly Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA), the behemoth in the industry. Notably, these companies endured the brutal crypto winter with significant losses, casting a shadow over their prospects amidst the ongoing crypto market rally.

隨著期待已久的比特幣減半臨近，主要的比特幣挖礦公司成為人們關注的焦點，尤其是產業巨頭 Marathon Digital（納斯達克股票代碼：MARA）。值得注意的是，這些公司經歷了殘酷的加密貨幣冬天並遭受了重大損失，在持續的加密貨幣市場反彈中給它們的前景蒙上了陰影。

While the halving event typically triggers a surge in Bitcoin prices, the precise trajectory for miners remains uncertain. As mining rewards are set to diminish, Bitcoin's value must rise substantially to maintain profitability for these firms. For Marathon Digital, this threshold stands at an ambitious $120,000 for it to maintain parity with its 2021 bull market performance.

雖然減半事件通常會引發比特幣價格飆升，但礦工的確切軌跡仍不確定。隨著挖礦獎勵逐漸減少，比特幣的價值必須大幅上漲才能維持這些公司的獲利能力。對於 Marathon Digital 來說，這一門檻高達 12 萬美元，以使其與 2021 年多頭市場表現保持一致。

Despite these challenges, experts anticipate that the halving may favor larger firms like Marathon Digital, potentially presenting value buying opportunities in late March 2024. Given its market dominance and recent stock performance that has mirrored the crypto market surge, MARA presents an intriguing investment proposition.

儘管有這些挑戰，專家預計減半可能有利於Marathon Digital 等規模較大的公司，可能會在2024 年3 月下旬帶來價值購買機會。鑑於其市場主導地位和近期的股票表現反映了加密貨幣市場的飆升，MARA 提出了一個有趣的投資主張。

Assessing MARA's Correlation with Bitcoin

評估 MARA 與比特幣的相關性

Historically, Marathon Digital's stock has exhibited some correlation with Bitcoin's movements, albeit not as pronounced as other companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR). While Bitcoin's impressive 52-week surge of 147.67% was accompanied by MARA's 184.03% rise, the coin's year-to-date (YTD) rally of 58.95% was not mirrored by the miner, which declined 1.53% in the same period.

從歷史上看，Marathon Digital 的股票與比特幣的走勢表現出一定的相關性，儘管不如 MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）等其他公司那麼明顯。雖然比特幣連續 52 週飆升 147.67%，伴隨著 MARA 的 184.03% 上漲，但比特幣年初至今 (YTD) 58.95% 的漲幅並沒有反映在該礦商身上，該礦商同期下跌了 1.53%。

Intriguingly, the correlation between Bitcoin and MARA appears to have weakened in recent weeks. Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high in March, while Marathon Digital shares reversed their earlier gains in 2024. However, the miner has regained momentum in the past five trading days, with a 7.17% climb to $22.58.

有趣的是，最近幾週比特幣和 MARA 之間的相關性似乎有所減弱。比特幣在 3 月飆升至歷史新高，而 Marathon Digital 股價則扭轉了 2024 年初的漲幅。不過，該礦商在過去 5 個交易日中重拾勢頭，上漲 7.17% 至 22.58 美元。

Predicting MARA's Future Performance

預測MARA未來的表現

The recent volatility and evolving correlation between MARA and Bitcoin make precise stock price predictions for the future challenging. Historical data suggests that Marathon Digital shares could remain stable or even dip towards $20 if Bitcoin reaches $100,000.

最近的波動以及 MARA 和比特幣之間不斷變化的相關性使得對未來的準確股價預測變得充滿挑戰。歷史數據表明，如果比特幣達到 10 萬美元，Marathon Digital 股價可能會保持穩定，甚至跌至 20 美元。

However, a closer examination of long-term and recent performance indicates that Marathon Digital has the potential to match or slightly exceed Bitcoin's rise. If the cryptocurrency reaches $100,000, MARA could potentially climb to a range between $35 and $40.

然而，對長期和近期表現的仔細研究表明，Marathon Digital 有潛力追平或略微超過比特幣的漲幅。如果加密貨幣達到 100,000 美元，MARA 的價格可能會攀升至 35 至 40 美元之間。

Exceptional Rally Potential Under Favorable Bitcoin Conditions

在有利的比特幣條件下，非凡的反彈潛力

Remarkably, Bitcoin's movements could have a disproportionate impact on Marathon Digital's shares. If BTC rallies in a manner similar to its previous halvings, perhaps reaching or surpassing Robert Kiyosaki's ambitious $300,000 price target for 2024, MARA could replicate its extraordinary 2020 and 2021 surge and soar towards $1,400.

值得注意的是，比特幣的趨勢可能會對 Marathon Digital 的股價產生不成比例的影響。如果 BTC 以類似於先前減半的方式反彈，或許達到或超過 Robert Kiyosaki 雄心勃勃的 2024 年 30 萬美元價格目標，MARA 可能會複製其 2020 年和 2021 年的非凡飆升並飆升至 1,400 美元。

While such a 6,000% rally may seem astonishing for a stock of Marathon Digital's current size, it's worth noting that 2024 has witnessed significant upward momentum in major stocks. For instance, Super Micro Computer's (NASDAQ: SMCI) involvement in artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled a 253.84% YTD rise, and MicroStrategy's connection to Bitcoin has driven a 148.79% surge.

雖然對於 Marathon Digital 目前規模的股票來說，如此 6,000% 的漲幅似乎令人震驚，但值得注意的是，2024 年主要股票出現了顯著的上漲勢頭。例如，超微電腦（NASDAQ：SMCI）涉足人工智慧（AI），年初至今股價上漲 253.84%，MicroStrategy 與比特幣的連結推動股價飆升 148.79%。

Caution amidst Bitcoin Volatility

比特幣波動需謹慎

Conversely, should Bitcoin fail to meet post-halving expectations and deliver only a modest rally, Marathon Digital faces the risk of plummeting back into penny stock territory due to concerns over its profitability.

相反，如果比特幣未能滿足減半後的預期並僅實現小幅上漲，馬拉松數位公司將面臨因獲利能力擔憂而重回細價股領域的風險。

Navigating the fluctuations of the crypto market and the potential impact on Marathon Digital requires a balanced approach. While the halving event presents opportunities, it also carries inherent risks. Investors should carefully consider their investment strategies and risk tolerance before making decisions.

應對加密貨幣市場的波動以及對 Marathon Digital 的潛在影響需要採取平衡的方法。減半事件帶來機會的同時，也蘊含著固有的風險。投資者在做出決定前應仔細考慮自己的投資策略和風險承受能力。