比特币减半迫在眉睫，波动性和盈利能力令人担忧

随着比特币（BTC）接近其备受期待的减半，数据表明价格可能会下跌。近 10% 的 BTC 持有者处于亏损状态，盈利能力下降，亏损持有者数量超过 10% 可能导致价格下跌 56,000 至 60,000 美元。

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Volatility and Profitability Pose Challenges Amid Halving Countdown

比特币处于十字路口：减半倒计时期间波动性和盈利能力构成挑战

As the highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving rapidly approaches, the cryptocurrency's trajectory hangs in the balance, with conflicting signals emerging from the market. While the halving event is widely expected to trigger a surge in value, a recent spike in volatility and a growing number of holders experiencing losses have cast a shadow over the immediate outlook.

随着备受期待的第四次比特币减半迅速临近，加密货币的发展轨迹悬而未决，市场上出现了相互矛盾的信号。尽管人们普遍预计减半事件将引发价值飙升，但最近波动性的飙升以及越来越多的持有者遭受损失给近期前景蒙上了阴影。

Profitability Declines, Loss-Making Holders Rise

盈利能力下降，亏损股东增加

According to data from IntoTheBlock, nearly 10% of Bitcoin holders are currently underwater, indicating that they have purchased the asset at a higher price than its current market value. This surge in loss-making holders is concerning, as it often precedes significant price declines.

根据IntoTheBlock的数据，近10%的比特币持有者目前处于水下状态，这表明他们以高于当前市场价值的价格购买了该资产。亏损持有者的激增令人担忧，因为它往往先于价格大幅下跌。

的历史记录证明了这一点，例如在2021年1月，当亏损持有人数量超过上述比例时，比特币价格从40,000美元暴跌至31,000美元。

的历史记录证明了这一点，例如在2021年1月，当亏损持有人数量超过上述比例时，比特币价格从40,000美元暴跌至31,000美元。

Volatility Rises, Signaling Potential Market Swings

波动性上升，预示着潜在的市场波动

To further assess the potential for a price drop, we examined Bitcoin's volatility using the on-chain analytics platform, Santiment. The one-day volatility has recently risen to 0.016, indicating an increased likelihood of substantial price swings on the charts.

为了进一步评估价格下跌的可能性，我们使用链上分析平台 Santiment 检查了比特币的波动性。一日波动率最近已升至 0.016，表明图表上价格大幅波动的可能性有所增加。

While volatility can present opportunities for higher returns, it also carries the potential for sharp downward movements. If volatility continues to increase and reaches levels similar to those observed in mid-April, Bitcoin could experience significant price fluctuations.

虽然波动性可以带来更高回报的机会，但也可能带来急剧下跌的可能性。如果波动性继续增加并达到与 4 月中旬类似的水平，比特币可能会出现大幅价格波动。

Selling Pressure Mounts, Short-Term Holders Increase Supply

抛售压力加大，短期持有者增加供应

Adding to the bearish sentiment, data from Glassnode reveals a growing trend in Short-Term Holder (STH) supply. Since April 14th, Bitcoin's STH supply has climbed from 3.40 million to 3.42 million.

Glassnode 的数据显示短期持有者 (STH) 供应呈增长趋势，这加剧了看跌情绪。自4月14日以来，比特币的STH供应量已从340万攀升至342万。

Typically, a tightening of the STH supply indicates reduced selling pressure and a bullish scenario. However, in the case of Bitcoin, the increase in supply suggests that more coins are available for sale, potentially contributing to a price decline.

通常，某物供应收紧表明抛售压力减轻和看涨情景。然而，就比特币而言，供应量的增加表明有更多的硬币可供出售，这可能会导致价格下跌。

Social Dominance Rises, Funding Rate Declines

社会主导地位上升，资金费率下降

Despite the bearish signals, Bitcoin's social dominance has witnessed an uptick, reaching 30.31%. This surge may be attributed to the impending halving event, which many believe will have a transformative impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory.

尽管存在看跌信号，但比特币的社会主导地位仍在上升，达到 30.31%。这种飙升可能归因于即将到来的减半事件，许多人认为这将对比特币的价格轨迹产生变革性影响。

Conversely, the aggregated Funding Rate has declined, indicating that traders are reducing their bullish bets. This suggests that traders are hesitant to take on additional risk in the lead-up to the halving.

相反，总资金费率下降，表明交易者正在减少看涨押注。这表明交易者在减半之前不愿承担额外的风险。

Conclusion

结论

With the halving event just hours away, Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. Historical parallels and on-chain data point to potential challenges ahead. The increase in loss-making holders, heightened volatility, and growing short-term holder supply raise concerns about a potential decline below $60,000.

距离减半事件只剩下几个小时了，比特币发现自己正处于一个关键时刻。历史相似之处和链上数据表明了未来的潜在挑战。亏损持有者的增加、波动性的加剧以及短期持有者供应的增加引发了人们对价格可能跌破 60,000 美元的担忧。

While the social dominance indicator suggests that interest in Bitcoin remains high, the declining funding rate signals a cautious approach among traders. If the current bearish bias persists into the halving event, Bitcoin's price could be set for a downward trajectory.

虽然社会主导指标表明人们对比特币的兴趣仍然很高，但融资利率下降表明交易者采取谨慎态度。如果当前的看跌偏见持续到减半事件，比特币的价格可能会出现下行趋势。

However, it is important to note that market dynamics can shift rapidly, and a surge in buying pressure could alter the forecast altogether. Traders are advised to monitor the situation carefully and adjust their strategies accordingly.

然而，值得注意的是，市场动态可能会迅速变化，购买压力的激增可能会完全改变预测。建议交易者仔细监控情况并相应调整策略。