比特幣減半迫在眉睫，波動性和獲利能力令人擔憂

隨著比特幣（BTC）接近其備受期待的減半，數據表明價格可能會下跌。近 10% 的 BTC 持有者處於虧損狀態，盈利能力下降，虧損持有者數量超過 10% 可能導致價格下跌 56,000 至 60,000 美元。

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Volatility and Profitability Pose Challenges Amid Halving Countdown

比特幣處於十字路口：減半倒數期間波動性和獲利能力構成挑戰

As the highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving rapidly approaches, the cryptocurrency's trajectory hangs in the balance, with conflicting signals emerging from the market. While the halving event is widely expected to trigger a surge in value, a recent spike in volatility and a growing number of holders experiencing losses have cast a shadow over the immediate outlook.

隨著備受期待的第四次比特幣減半迅速臨近，加密貨幣的發展軌跡懸而未決，市場上出現了相互矛盾的訊號。儘管人們普遍預計減半事件將引發價值飆升，但最近波動性的飆升以及越來越多的持有者遭受損失給近期前景蒙上了陰影。

Profitability Declines, Loss-Making Holders Rise

獲利能力下降，虧損股東增加

According to data from IntoTheBlock, nearly 10% of Bitcoin holders are currently underwater, indicating that they have purchased the asset at a higher price than its current market value. This surge in loss-making holders is concerning, as it often precedes significant price declines.

根據IntoTheBlock的數據，近10%的比特幣持有者目前處於水下狀態，這表明他們以高於當前市場價值的價格購買了該資產。虧損持有者的激增令人擔憂，因為它往往先於價格大幅下跌。

的历史记录证明了这一点，例如在2021年1月，当亏损持有人数量超过上述比例时，比特币价格从40,000美元暴跌至31,000美元。

的歷史記錄證明了這一點，例如在2021年1月，當虧損持有者數量超過上述比例時，比特幣價格從40,000美元暴跌至31,000美元。

Volatility Rises, Signaling Potential Market Swings

波動性上升，預示著潛在的市場波動

To further assess the potential for a price drop, we examined Bitcoin's volatility using the on-chain analytics platform, Santiment. The one-day volatility has recently risen to 0.016, indicating an increased likelihood of substantial price swings on the charts.

為了進一步評估價格下跌的可能性，我們使用鏈上分析平台 Santiment 檢查了比特幣的波動性。一日波動率最近已升至 0.016，顯示圖表上價格大幅波動的可能性增加。

While volatility can present opportunities for higher returns, it also carries the potential for sharp downward movements. If volatility continues to increase and reaches levels similar to those observed in mid-April, Bitcoin could experience significant price fluctuations.

雖然波動性可以帶來更高回報的機會，但也可能帶來急劇下跌的可能性。如果波動性繼續增加並達到與 4 月中旬類似的水平，比特幣可能會出現大幅價格波動。

Selling Pressure Mounts, Short-Term Holders Increase Supply

拋售壓力加大，短期持有者增加供應

Adding to the bearish sentiment, data from Glassnode reveals a growing trend in Short-Term Holder (STH) supply. Since April 14th, Bitcoin's STH supply has climbed from 3.40 million to 3.42 million.

Glassnode 的數據顯示短期持有者 (STH) 供應呈現成長趨勢，這加劇了看跌情緒。自4月14日以來，比特幣的STH供應量已從340萬攀升至342萬。

Typically, a tightening of the STH supply indicates reduced selling pressure and a bullish scenario. However, in the case of Bitcoin, the increase in supply suggests that more coins are available for sale, potentially contributing to a price decline.

通常，某物供應收緊表示拋售壓力減輕和看漲情景。然而，就比特幣而言，供應量的增加表明有更多的硬幣可供出售，這可能會導致價格下跌。

Social Dominance Rises, Funding Rate Declines

社會主導地位上升，資金費率下降

Despite the bearish signals, Bitcoin's social dominance has witnessed an uptick, reaching 30.31%. This surge may be attributed to the impending halving event, which many believe will have a transformative impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory.

儘管存在看跌訊號，但比特幣的社會主導地位仍在上升，達到 30.31%。這種飆升可能歸因於即將到來的減半事件，許多人認為這將對比特幣的價格軌跡產生變革性影響。

Conversely, the aggregated Funding Rate has declined, indicating that traders are reducing their bullish bets. This suggests that traders are hesitant to take on additional risk in the lead-up to the halving.

相反，總資金費率下降，表示交易者正在減少看漲押注。這表明交易者在減半之前不願承擔額外的風險。

Conclusion

結論

With the halving event just hours away, Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. Historical parallels and on-chain data point to potential challenges ahead. The increase in loss-making holders, heightened volatility, and growing short-term holder supply raise concerns about a potential decline below $60,000.

距離減半事件只剩下幾個小時了，比特幣發現自己正處於一個關鍵時刻。歷史相似之處和鏈上數據顯示了未來的潛在挑戰。虧損持有者的增加、波動性的加劇以及短期持有者供應的增加引發了人們對價格可能跌破 6 萬美元的擔憂。

While the social dominance indicator suggests that interest in Bitcoin remains high, the declining funding rate signals a cautious approach among traders. If the current bearish bias persists into the halving event, Bitcoin's price could be set for a downward trajectory.

雖然社會主導指標顯示人們對比特幣的興趣仍然很高，但融資利率下降表明交易者採取謹慎態度。如果當前的看跌偏見持續到減半事件，比特幣的價格可能會出現下行趨勢。

However, it is important to note that market dynamics can shift rapidly, and a surge in buying pressure could alter the forecast altogether. Traders are advised to monitor the situation carefully and adjust their strategies accordingly.

然而，值得注意的是，市場動態可能會迅速變化，購買壓力的激增可能會完全改變預測。建議交易者仔細監控情況並相應調整策略。