比特币减半：加密货币市场轨迹是繁荣还是萧条？

在不到三周的时间里，比特币减半即将到来，历史上触发了牛市的主要阶段。虽然过去的减半导致价格大幅上涨（2020 年减半后 658%），但增长模式一直在减弱（2012 年超过 12,400% 到 2020 年为 1,200%）。考虑到这种回报递减趋势以及新投资者通过 ETF 涌入，专家预计 2028 年减半时 BTC 价格可能为 303,600-434,280 美元，并承认比特币 ETF 可能扰乱了市场动态。

Bitcoin Halving: A Catalyst for Market Surge or a Dimming Growth Trajectory?

比特币减半：市场飙升的催化剂还是增长轨迹黯淡？

With less than three weeks remaining until the highly anticipated Bitcoin network halving, the cryptocurrency community is abuzz with speculation about its potential impact on the market. Historically, the halving of Bitcoin's block reward has marked the onset of prolonged bull markets, but experts remain divided on whether history will repeat itself this time around.

距离备受期待的比特币网络减半还有不到三周的时间，加密货币社区对其对市场的潜在影响充满了猜测。从历史上看，比特币区块奖励减半标志着长期牛市的开始，但专家们对于这一次历史是否会重演仍存在分歧。

Past Performance and Diminishing Returns

过去的表现和收益递减

Data from TradingView reveals a remarkable surge in the Bitcoin price following the previous halving. Since the last halving in 2020, the price has skyrocketed by approximately 658%, leading many to speculate that a similar trajectory could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

TradingView 的数据显示，在上次减半之后，比特币价格出现了显着上涨。自 2020 年上次减半以来，价格已飙升约 658%，导致许多人猜测类似的轨迹可能会将比特币推向新的高度。

However, a closer examination of past halvings reveals a gradual decline in the percentage price increase. In 2012, the first halving witnessed a staggering 12,400% jump. This was followed by a 5,200% increase in 2016 and a more modest 1,200% increase in 2020.

然而，仔细研究过去的减半就会发现价格上涨的百分比逐渐下降。 2012 年，第一次减半见证了惊人的 12,400% 的跳跃。随后，2016 年增长了 5,200%，2020 年增长了 1,200%。

This diminishing growth trend suggests that the average price increase in subsequent Bitcoin cycles has declined by around 45%. If this pattern continues, it could result in a more muted "only" 360% profit surge, pushing the price to approximately $303,600 at the time of the 2028 halving.

这种增长放缓的趋势表明，后续比特币周期的平均价格涨幅已下降约 45%。如果这种模式继续下去，可能会导致利润“仅”增长 360%，从而在 2028 年减半时将价格推至约 303,600 美元。

Unpredictable Future and Emerging Trends

不可预测的未来和新兴趋势

Despite the historical precedent, predicting the future of Bitcoin remains a near-impossible task. While some experts believe that the halving will inevitably trigger another bull run, others remain skeptical. Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, cautions against making overly simplistic correlations between past halvings and future price movements.

尽管有历史先例，但预测比特币的未来仍然是一项近乎不可能的任务。尽管一些专家认为减半将不可避免地引发另一场牛市，但其他专家仍持怀疑态度。 Bybit金融产品主管杨浩警告不要在过去的减半和未来的价格走势之间建立过于简单的关联。

However, the emergence of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced a new dynamic to the cryptocurrency landscape. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs could potentially lead to a six-digit price for Bitcoin.

然而，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的出现为加密货币领域带来了新的动力。彭博社分析师 Eric Balchunas 表示，比特币 ETF 的快速增长可能会导致比特币价格上涨至六位数。

The unprecedented rate at which Bitcoin ETFs are accumulating assets compared to their gold counterparts suggests that they may be reshaping the rules of the cryptocurrency market. Should this trend continue, it could amplify the impact of the halving and propel Bitcoin to new record highs before the event.

与黄金ETF相比，比特币ETF积累资产的速度前所未有，这表明它们可能正在重塑加密货币市场的规则。如果这种趋势持续下去，可能会放大减半的影响，并推动比特币在减半前创下新高。

Conclusion

结论

While the Bitcoin halving has historically played a significant role in market cycles, its impact on the current bull run remains uncertain. The diminishing growth trajectory observed in past halvings and the skepticism of some experts suggest a more cautious approach to price predictions. However, the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has introduced a potentially game-changing factor that could potentially drive the price to new heights. The true impact of the halving will only be revealed as the market unfolds in the coming months and years.

尽管比特币减半历来在市场周期中发挥着重要作用，但其对当前牛市的影响仍不确定。在过去的减半中观察到的增长轨迹逐渐减弱以及一些专家的怀疑表明对价格预测采取更加谨慎的态度。然而，比特币 ETF 的出现引入了一个潜在的改变游戏规则的因素，有可能将价格推向新的高度。减半的真正影响只有在未来几个月和几年的市场发展中才会显现出来。