比特幣減半：加密貨幣市場軌跡是繁榮還是蕭條？

在不到三週的時間裡，比特幣減半即將到來，歷史上觸發了牛市的主要階段。雖然過去的減半導致價格大幅上漲（2020 年減半後 658%），但成長模式一直在減弱（2012 年超過 12,400% 到 2020 年為 1,200%）。考慮到這種回報遞減趨勢以及新投資者透過 ETF 湧入，專家預計 2028 年減半時 BTC 價格可能為 303,600-434,280 美元，並承認比特幣 ETF 可能擾亂了市場動態。

Bitcoin Halving: A Catalyst for Market Surge or a Dimming Growth Trajectory?

比特幣減半：市場飆升的催化劑還是成長軌跡黯淡？

With less than three weeks remaining until the highly anticipated Bitcoin network halving, the cryptocurrency community is abuzz with speculation about its potential impact on the market. Historically, the halving of Bitcoin's block reward has marked the onset of prolonged bull markets, but experts remain divided on whether history will repeat itself this time around.

距離備受期待的比特幣網路減半還有不到三週的時間，加密貨幣社群對其對市場的潛在影響充滿了猜測。從歷史上看，比特幣區塊獎勵減半標誌著長期牛市的開始，但專家們對於這次歷史是否會重演仍存在分歧。

Past Performance and Diminishing Returns

過去的表現和收益遞減

Data from TradingView reveals a remarkable surge in the Bitcoin price following the previous halving. Since the last halving in 2020, the price has skyrocketed by approximately 658%, leading many to speculate that a similar trajectory could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

TradingView 的數據顯示，在上次減半後，比特幣價格出現了顯著上漲。自 2020 年上次減半以來，價格已飆升約 658%，導致許多人猜測類似的軌跡可能會將比特幣推向新的高度。

However, a closer examination of past halvings reveals a gradual decline in the percentage price increase. In 2012, the first halving witnessed a staggering 12,400% jump. This was followed by a 5,200% increase in 2016 and a more modest 1,200% increase in 2020.

然而，仔細研究過去的減半就會發現價格上漲的百分比逐漸下降。 2012 年，第一次減半見證了驚人的 12,400% 的跳躍。隨後，2016 年成長了 5,200%，2020 年成長了 1,200%。

This diminishing growth trend suggests that the average price increase in subsequent Bitcoin cycles has declined by around 45%. If this pattern continues, it could result in a more muted "only" 360% profit surge, pushing the price to approximately $303,600 at the time of the 2028 halving.

這種成長放緩的趨勢表明，後續比特幣週期的平均價格漲幅已下降約 45%。如果這種模式繼續下去，可能會導致利潤「僅」增長 360%，從而在 2028 年減半時將價格推至約 303,600 美元。

Unpredictable Future and Emerging Trends

不可預測的未來和新興趨勢

Despite the historical precedent, predicting the future of Bitcoin remains a near-impossible task. While some experts believe that the halving will inevitably trigger another bull run, others remain skeptical. Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, cautions against making overly simplistic correlations between past halvings and future price movements.

儘管有歷史先例，預測比特幣的未來仍然是一項近乎不可能的任務。儘管一些專家認為減半將不可避免地引發另一場牛市，但其他專家仍持懷疑態度。 Bybit金融產品主管楊浩警告不要在過去的減半和未來的價格走勢之間建立過於簡單的關聯。

However, the emergence of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced a new dynamic to the cryptocurrency landscape. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs could potentially lead to a six-digit price for Bitcoin.

然而，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的出現為加密貨幣領域帶來了新的動力。彭博分析師 Eric Balchunas 表示，比特幣 ETF 的快速成長可能會導致比特幣價格上漲至六位數。

The unprecedented rate at which Bitcoin ETFs are accumulating assets compared to their gold counterparts suggests that they may be reshaping the rules of the cryptocurrency market. Should this trend continue, it could amplify the impact of the halving and propel Bitcoin to new record highs before the event.

與黃金ETF相比，比特幣ETF累積資產的速度前所未有，這表明它們可能正在重塑加密貨幣市場的規則。如果這種趨勢持續下去，可能會放大減半的影響，並推動比特幣在減半前創下新高。

Conclusion

結論

While the Bitcoin halving has historically played a significant role in market cycles, its impact on the current bull run remains uncertain. The diminishing growth trajectory observed in past halvings and the skepticism of some experts suggest a more cautious approach to price predictions. However, the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has introduced a potentially game-changing factor that could potentially drive the price to new heights. The true impact of the halving will only be revealed as the market unfolds in the coming months and years.

儘管比特幣減半歷來在市場週期中發揮重要作用，但對當前牛市的影響仍不確定。在過去的減半中觀察到的成長軌跡逐漸減弱以及一些專家的懷疑表明對價格預測採取更加謹慎的態度。然而，比特幣 ETF 的出現引入了一個潛在的改變遊戲規則的因素，有可能將價格推向新的高度。減半的真正影響只有在未來幾個月和幾年的市場發展中才會顯現出來。