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比特币和黄金在全球牛市中蓬勃发展,过去 12 个月全球总指数飙升了 28%。由于这两种资产都处于或接近历史高点,许多交易者可能会认为它们是相关的,这是可以理解的。
Bitcoin and gold are both enjoying a bull market, with Total World Indices up an impressive 28% over the last 12 months and both assets sitting at or near all-time highs. Many traders might assume that this means the two assets are correlated, but that's not the case.
比特币和黄金都在享受牛市,全球总指数在过去 12 个月中上涨了 28%,令人印象深刻,两种资产都处于或接近历史高点。许多交易者可能认为这意味着这两种资产是相关的,但事实并非如此。
In fact, gold and bitcoin are less correlated than ever before. While gold is at an all-time high, bitcoin is down 6% from its own all-time peak. Furthermore, a standard correlation measure of bitcoin to gold has fallen from over 50% four years ago to nearly 0 today.
事实上,黄金和比特币的相关性比以往任何时候都低。尽管黄金处于历史最高点,但比特币却较其历史最高点下跌了 6%。此外,比特币与黄金的标准相关性指标已从四年前的 50% 以上降至如今的近 0。
If you look at a 90-day smoothed price chart of bitcoin and gold, you'll also see that the two assets are moving less in tandem than ever. Specifically, in October 2020, bitcoin’s average daily returns over rolling 90-day periods had a positive 50% correlation to the rolling 90-day returns of gold. However, bitcoin is now trading completely independently of gold, with its 90-day correlation to gold at just 0.04.
如果您查看比特币和黄金的 90 天平滑价格图表,您还会发现这两种资产的同步波动比以往任何时候都少。具体来说,2020 年 10 月,比特币的 90 天滚动回报率与黄金的 90 天滚动回报率呈 50% 正相关。然而,比特币现在的交易完全独立于黄金,其与黄金的 90 天相关性仅为 0.04。
“Gold can’t achieve transaction finality without the help of a government or central party.” — @jackmallers calmly destroying Peter Schiff 🔥 #Bitcoin
“如果没有政府或中央机构的帮助,黄金就无法实现交易最终性。” — @jackmallers 冷静地摧毁 Peter Schiff 🔥 #Bitcoin
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Correlations can range from 1 — a perfect correlation where two assets always rally together — to -1, which is a perfectly negative correlation where two assets always trade in opposite directions.
相关性的范围可以从 1(两种资产总是一起上涨的完美相关性)到 -1(两种资产总是以相反方向交易的完全负相关性)。
Bitcoin’s 0.04 correlation to gold means that the average returns of gold have almost no impact on the average returns of bitcoin over a rolling three-month period. So, if bitcoin is "digital gold," as it's often called, it certainly hasn't been trading like it over the last 90 days.
比特币与黄金的相关性为 0.04,这意味着黄金的平均回报率在滚动三个月内对比特币的平均回报率几乎没有影响。因此,如果比特币是人们常说的“数字黄金”,那么它在过去 90 天内的交易情况肯定不是这样的。
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