比特幣和黃金的相關性比以往任何時候都低，這對比特幣來說是一個問題

比特幣和黃金在全球多頭市場中蓬勃發展，過去 12 個月全球總指數飆升了 28%。由於這兩種資產都處於或接近歷史高點，許多交易者可能會認為它們是相關的，這是可以理解的。

Bitcoin and gold are both enjoying a bull market, with Total World Indices up an impressive 28% over the last 12 months and both assets sitting at or near all-time highs. Many traders might assume that this means the two assets are correlated, but that's not the case.

比特幣和黃金都在享受多頭市場，全球總指數在過去 12 個月中上漲了 28%，令人印象深刻，兩種資產都處於或接近歷史高點。許多交易者可能認為這意味著這兩種資產是相關的，但事實並非如此。

In fact, gold and bitcoin are less correlated than ever before. While gold is at an all-time high, bitcoin is down 6% from its own all-time peak. Furthermore, a standard correlation measure of bitcoin to gold has fallen from over 50% four years ago to nearly 0 today.

事實上，黃金和比特幣的相關性比以往任何時候都低。儘管黃金處於歷史最高點，但比特幣較其歷史最高點下跌了 6%。此外，比特幣與黃金的標準相關性指標已從四年前的 50% 以上降至如今的近 0。

If you look at a 90-day smoothed price chart of bitcoin and gold, you'll also see that the two assets are moving less in tandem than ever. Specifically, in October 2020, bitcoin’s average daily returns over rolling 90-day periods had a positive 50% correlation to the rolling 90-day returns of gold. However, bitcoin is now trading completely independently of gold, with its 90-day correlation to gold at just 0.04.

如果您查看比特幣和黃金的 90 天平滑價格圖表，您還會發現這兩種資產的同步波動比以往任何時候都少。具體來說，2020 年 10 月，比特幣的 90 天滾動回報率與黃金的 90 天滾動回報率呈 50% 正相關。然而，比特幣現在的交易完全獨立於黃金，其與黃金的 90 天相關性僅為 0.04。

“Gold can’t achieve transaction finality without the help of a government or central party.” — @jackmallers calmly destroying Peter Schiff ? #Bitcoin

“如果沒有政府或中央機構的幫助，黃金就無法實現交易最終性。” — @jackmallers 冷靜地摧毀 Peter Schiff ? #Bitcoin

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Correlations can range from 1 — a perfect correlation where two assets always rally together — to -1, which is a perfectly negative correlation where two assets always trade in opposite directions.

相關性的範圍可以從 1（兩種資產總是一起上漲的完美相關性）到 -1（兩種資產總是以相反方向交易的完全負相關性）。

Bitcoin’s 0.04 correlation to gold means that the average returns of gold have almost no impact on the average returns of bitcoin over a rolling three-month period. So, if bitcoin is "digital gold," as it's often called, it certainly hasn't been trading like it over the last 90 days.

比特幣與黃金的相關性為 0.04，這意味著黃金的平均回報率在滾動三個月內對比特幣的平均回報率幾乎沒有影響。因此，如果比特幣是人們常說的“數位黃金”，那麼它在過去 90 天內的交易情況肯定不是這樣的。