比特币的未来：未来十年的预测

十年后，比特币可能成为一种既定的主流支付方式，为游戏和人工智能交易提供动力。然而，对监管和税收的担忧迫在眉睫，可能导致比特币分为两个部分：追踪和影子。尽管面临这些挑战，比特币作为价值储存手段的核心价值仍然强劲，这与将其作为投资基准的代际转变相一致。比特币序号可能会带来惊喜，它会改变数字收藏品，并且心灵感应比特币交易的潜力也会出现。然而，在乐观的愿景中，我们仍然谦虚地承认，未来仍然不确定，而且不能完全忽视世界末日的情景。

The Future of Bitcoin: Scenarios for the Next Decade

比特币的未来：未来十年的场景

Introduction

介绍

As Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving in April 2024, it is an opportune moment to re-evaluate and refresh potential scenarios outlining its future over the next decade. While the cryptocurrency landscape has evolved significantly since the last halving, the inherent uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's trajectory remains. This article presents a range of plausible scenarios, from optimistic to pessimistic, based on expert perspectives and recent developments in the industry.

随着 2024 年 4 月比特币第四次减半，现在是重新评估和更新概述其未来十年的潜在情景的好时机。尽管自上次减半以来加密货币格局发生了显着变化，但围绕比特币轨迹的固有不确定性仍然存在。本文根据专家的观点和行业的最新发展，提出了一系列可能的情景，从乐观到悲观。

1. Bitcoin as Everyday Currency: "Buy a Cup of Coffee"

1. 比特币作为日常货币：“买一杯咖啡”

Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan, envisions a future where Bitcoin becomes widely accepted for everyday purchases, akin to using cash or debit cards. By 2035, he predicts that most goods and services worldwide will carry price tags in both fiat currency and Bitcoin, allowing for seamless adoption without completely replacing traditional financial systems.

Swan 首席执行官 Cory Klippsten 设想，未来比特币将被广泛接受用于日常购物，类似于使用现金或借记卡。他预测，到 2035 年，全球大多数商品和服务都将带有法定货币和比特币的价格标签，从而无需完全取代传统金融系统即可无缝采用。

2. Bitcoin-Powered Gaming

2. 比特币驱动的游戏

Des Dickerson, CEO of THNDR Games, believes that Bitcoin's lightning-fast transactions make it an ideal currency for the gaming industry, where millions of users could earn Bitcoin rewards. However, he acknowledges that mainstream adoption in gaming will require a groundbreaking viral game featuring Bitcoin integration.

TNHDR Games 首席执行官 Des Dickerson 认为，比特币闪电般的交易速度使其成为游戏行业的理想货币，数百万用户可以获得比特币奖励。然而，他承认，游戏的主流采用将需要一款具有比特币整合功能的突破性病毒游戏。

3. TradFi Embraces Bitcoin

3. TradFi 拥抱比特币

The emergence of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced a new source of capital for Bitcoin but also raises concerns about increased regulatory influence. Isaiah Jackson, author of "Bitcoin and Black America," highlights the potential for large financial institutions to exert undue influence on Bitcoin's development and governance.

比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的出现为比特币引入了新的资金来源，但也引发了人们对监管影响力增强的担忧。 《比特币和黑人美国》一书的作者以赛亚·杰克逊强调了大型金融机构对比特币的发展和治理施加不当影响的潜力。

4. Artificial Bitcoin Intelligence (ABI)

4.比特币人工智能（ABI）

As artificial intelligence (AI) advances, "smart agents" capable of tasks like financial management will emerge. David Johnston, lead contributor to the Morpheus project, envisions Bitcoin as a suitable medium for these agents to conduct transactions due to its digital nature and adaptability.

随着人工智能（AI）的进步，能够执行财务管理等任务的“智能代理”将会出现。 Morpheus 项目的主要贡献者 David Johnston 认为，由于比特币的数字性质和适应性，比特币将成为这些代理进行交易的合适媒介。

5. Choked by Taxation and Regulation

5. 税收和监管的阻碍

Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant concern for Bitcoin's future. Wendy O, host of The O Show, acknowledges the benefits of ETF-driven price appreciation but expresses apprehension about government intervention in the digital currency ecosystem. Jackson suggests that excessive regulation could lead to bottlenecks in converting Bitcoin to fiat, potentially favoring government-issued digital currencies.

监管不确定性仍然是比特币未来的一个重大担忧。 The O Show 主持人 Wendy O 承认 ETF 驱动的价格升值的好处，但对政府干预数字货币生态系统表示担忧。杰克逊表示，过度监管可能会导致比特币兑换法定货币遇到瓶颈，这可能有利于政府发行的数字货币。

6. Shadow Bitcoins

6.影子比特币

If government overreach stifles Bitcoin's growth, Jackson predicts a rise in "black market" Bitcoin, hidden from regulatory scrutiny. However, he also acknowledges the impracticality of completely suppressing Bitcoin due to its decentralized nature.

杰克逊预测，如果政府的过度干预抑制了比特币的增长，隐藏在监管审查之下的“黑市”比特币将会增加。然而，他也承认，由于比特币的去中心化性质，完全压制比特币是不切实际的。

7. Bitcoin Thrives as a Store of Value

7. 比特币作为价值储存手段蓬勃发展

Anthony Pompliano, founder of Pomp Investments, emphasizes Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition as a global, digital store of value. He sees Bitcoin as a benchmark for young investors, similar to the S&P 500 for stock traders.

Pomp Investments 创始人 Anthony Pompliano 强调比特币作为全球数字价值存储的基本价值主张。他将比特币视为年轻投资者的基准，类似于股票交易员的标准普尔 500 指数。

8. Machines Send Bitcoin

8. 机器发送比特币

Elizabeth Stark, CEO of Lightning Labs, foresees a future where machines and robots seamlessly transact using Bitcoin, driven by the need for instantaneous settlement. She envisions a scenario where devices within the Internet of Things use Bitcoin for transactions, bypassing traditional banking systems.

闪电实验室首席执行官伊丽莎白·斯塔克（Elizabeth Stark）预见到，在即时结算需求的推动下，机器和机器人将使用比特币无缝进行交易。她设想了一种场景，物联网中的设备使用比特币进行交易，绕过传统的银行系统。

9. Bitcoin Ordinals Blow Up

9. 比特币序数爆炸

Bitcoin Ordinals, a mechanism for embedding data and NFTs into the Bitcoin blockchain, have sparked interest in digital collectibles. Wendy O believes that Ordinals could revolutionize the NFT market, offering enhanced security and longevity.

比特币序号是一种将数据和 NFT 嵌入比特币区块链的机制，引发了人们对数字收藏品的兴趣。 Wendy O 相信 Ordinals 可以彻底改变 NFT 市场，提供更高的安全性和寿命。

10. The Status Quo Continues

10.现状仍在继续

Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin's potential, Cas Piancey, cohost of the Crypto Critics' Corner podcast, anticipates that Bitcoin's use cases will remain largely unchanged over the next decade. He sees Bitcoin as a valuable tool for remittances, dissent, and store of value, but dismisses claims of it becoming a global reserve currency.

尽管人们对比特币的潜力感到兴奋，但加密评论家角播客的联合主持人 Cas Piancey 预计，比特币的用例在未来十年将基本保持不变。他认为比特币是汇款、异议和价值储存的宝贵工具，但否认比特币成为全球储备货币的说法。

11. Bitcoin's Death by Black Swan

11. 黑天鹅导致比特币死亡

The unpredictable nature of technology and global events poses potential risks to Bitcoin. Jackson acknowledges the theoretical possibility of a quantum computing hack or other catastrophic event, emphasizing the importance of preparedness.

技术和全球事件的不可预测性给比特币带来了潜在风险。杰克逊承认理论上存在量子计算黑客攻击或其他灾难性事件的可能性，并强调做好准备的重要性。

12. Telepathic Bitcoin

12. 心灵感应比特币

Jackson envisions a futuristic scenario where Bitcoin transactions occur through telepathic communication. Inspired by Neuralink's brain-computer interface advancements, he suggests that future users may be able to send Bitcoin simply by thinking the code for a private wallet.

杰克逊设想了一个未来场景，其中比特币交易通过心灵感应通信进行。受到 Neuralink 脑机接口进步的启发，他建议未来用户只需思考私人钱包的代码就可以发送比特币。

Conclusion

结论

The future of Bitcoin is inherently uncertain, with a range of plausible scenarios emerging. While the cryptocurrency industry continues to evolve and innovate, the ultimate trajectory of Bitcoin will depend on a complex interplay of technical advancements, regulatory landscapes, and societal adoption patterns. As the next Bitcoin halving approaches, it is essential to embrace both optimism and pragmatism in assessing the potential directions Bitcoin may take over the next decade.

比特币的未来本质上是不确定的，一系列可能的情况正在出现。尽管加密货币行业不断发展和创新，但比特币的最终轨迹将取决于技术进步、监管环境和社会采用模式之间复杂的相互作用。随着下一次比特币减半的临近，在评估比特币未来十年可能采取的潜在方向时，必须保持乐观和实用主义。