比特幣的未來：未來十年的預測

十年後，比特幣可能成為一種既定的主流支付方式，為遊戲和人工智慧交易提供動力。然而，對監管和稅收的擔憂迫在眉睫，可能導致比特幣分為兩個部分：追蹤和影子。儘管面臨這些挑戰，比特幣作為價值儲存手段的核心價值仍然強勁，這與將其作為投資基準的世代轉變一致。比特幣序號可能會帶來驚喜，它會改變數位收藏品，心靈感應比特幣交易的潛力也會出現。然而，在樂觀的願景中，我們仍然謙虛地承認，未來仍然不確定，而且不能完全忽視世界末日的情景。

The Future of Bitcoin: Scenarios for the Next Decade

比特幣的未來：未來十年的場景

Introduction

介紹

As Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving in April 2024, it is an opportune moment to re-evaluate and refresh potential scenarios outlining its future over the next decade. While the cryptocurrency landscape has evolved significantly since the last halving, the inherent uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's trajectory remains. This article presents a range of plausible scenarios, from optimistic to pessimistic, based on expert perspectives and recent developments in the industry.

隨著 2024 年 4 月比特幣第四次減半，現在是重新評估和更新概述其未來十年的潛在情景的好時機。儘管自上次減半以來加密貨幣格局發生了顯著變化，但圍繞比特幣軌蹟的固有不確定性仍然存在。本文根據專家的觀點和產業的最新發展，提出了一系列可能的情景，從樂觀到悲觀。

1. Bitcoin as Everyday Currency: "Buy a Cup of Coffee"

1. 比特幣作為日常貨幣：“買一杯咖啡”

Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan, envisions a future where Bitcoin becomes widely accepted for everyday purchases, akin to using cash or debit cards. By 2035, he predicts that most goods and services worldwide will carry price tags in both fiat currency and Bitcoin, allowing for seamless adoption without completely replacing traditional financial systems.

Swan 執行長 Cory Klippsten 設想，未來比特幣將被廣泛接受用於日常購物，類似於使用現金或金融卡。他預測，到 2035 年，全球大多數商品和服務都將帶有法定貨幣和比特幣的價格標籤，無需完全取代傳統金融系統即可無縫採用。

2. Bitcoin-Powered Gaming

2. 比特幣驅動的遊戲

Des Dickerson, CEO of THNDR Games, believes that Bitcoin's lightning-fast transactions make it an ideal currency for the gaming industry, where millions of users could earn Bitcoin rewards. However, he acknowledges that mainstream adoption in gaming will require a groundbreaking viral game featuring Bitcoin integration.

TNHDR Games 執行長 Des Dickerson 認為，比特幣閃電般的交易速度使其成為遊戲產業的理想貨幣，數百萬用戶可以獲得比特幣獎勵。然而，他承認，遊戲的主流採用將需要一款具有比特幣整合功能的突破性病毒遊戲。

3. TradFi Embraces Bitcoin

3. TradFi 擁抱比特幣

The emergence of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced a new source of capital for Bitcoin but also raises concerns about increased regulatory influence. Isaiah Jackson, author of "Bitcoin and Black America," highlights the potential for large financial institutions to exert undue influence on Bitcoin's development and governance.

比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的出現為比特幣引入了新的資金來源，但也引發了人們對監管影響力增強的擔憂。 《比特幣與黑人美國》一書的作者以賽亞·傑克森強調了大型金融機構對比特幣的發展和治理施加不當影響的潛力。

4. Artificial Bitcoin Intelligence (ABI)

4.比特幣人工智慧（ABI）

As artificial intelligence (AI) advances, "smart agents" capable of tasks like financial management will emerge. David Johnston, lead contributor to the Morpheus project, envisions Bitcoin as a suitable medium for these agents to conduct transactions due to its digital nature and adaptability.

隨著人工智慧（AI）的進步，能夠執行財務管理等任務的「智慧代理」將會出現。 Morpheus 計畫的主要貢獻者 David Johnston 認為，由於比特幣的數位性質和適應性，比特幣將成為這些代理商進行交易的合適媒介。

5. Choked by Taxation and Regulation

5. 稅收和監管的阻礙

Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant concern for Bitcoin's future. Wendy O, host of The O Show, acknowledges the benefits of ETF-driven price appreciation but expresses apprehension about government intervention in the digital currency ecosystem. Jackson suggests that excessive regulation could lead to bottlenecks in converting Bitcoin to fiat, potentially favoring government-issued digital currencies.

監管不確定性仍然是比特幣未來的重大擔憂。 The O Show 主持人 Wendy O 承認 ETF 驅動的價格升值的好處，但對政府乾預數位貨幣生態系統表示擔憂。傑克森表示，過度監管可能會導致比特幣兌換法定貨幣遇到瓶頸，可能有利於政府發行的數位貨幣。

6. Shadow Bitcoins

6.影子比特幣

If government overreach stifles Bitcoin's growth, Jackson predicts a rise in "black market" Bitcoin, hidden from regulatory scrutiny. However, he also acknowledges the impracticality of completely suppressing Bitcoin due to its decentralized nature.

傑克森預測，如果政府的過度幹預抑制了比特幣的成長，隱藏在監管審查之下的「黑市」比特幣將會增加。然而，他也承認，由於比特幣的去中心化性質，完全壓制比特幣是不切實際的。

7. Bitcoin Thrives as a Store of Value

7. 比特幣作為價值儲存手段蓬勃發展

Anthony Pompliano, founder of Pomp Investments, emphasizes Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition as a global, digital store of value. He sees Bitcoin as a benchmark for young investors, similar to the S&P 500 for stock traders.

Pomp Investments 創辦人 Anthony Pompliano 強調比特幣作為全球數位價值儲存的基本價值主張。他將比特幣視為年輕投資者的基準，類似於股票交易員的標準普爾 500 指數。

8. Machines Send Bitcoin

8. 機器發送比特幣

Elizabeth Stark, CEO of Lightning Labs, foresees a future where machines and robots seamlessly transact using Bitcoin, driven by the need for instantaneous settlement. She envisions a scenario where devices within the Internet of Things use Bitcoin for transactions, bypassing traditional banking systems.

閃電實驗室執行長伊麗莎白·斯塔克（Elizabeth Stark）預見到，在即時結算需求的推動下，機器和機器人將使用比特幣無縫進行交易。她設想了一個場景，物聯網中的設備使用比特幣進行交易，繞過傳統的銀行系統。

9. Bitcoin Ordinals Blow Up

9. 比特幣序數爆炸

Bitcoin Ordinals, a mechanism for embedding data and NFTs into the Bitcoin blockchain, have sparked interest in digital collectibles. Wendy O believes that Ordinals could revolutionize the NFT market, offering enhanced security and longevity.

比特幣序號是一種將數據和 NFT 嵌入比特幣區塊鏈的機制，引發了人們對數位收藏品的興趣。 Wendy O 相信 Ordinals 可以徹底改變 NFT 市場，提供更高的安全性和壽命。

10. The Status Quo Continues

10.現狀仍在繼續

Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin's potential, Cas Piancey, cohost of the Crypto Critics' Corner podcast, anticipates that Bitcoin's use cases will remain largely unchanged over the next decade. He sees Bitcoin as a valuable tool for remittances, dissent, and store of value, but dismisses claims of it becoming a global reserve currency.

儘管人們對比特幣的潛力感到興奮，但加密評論家角播客的聯合主持人 Cas Piancey 預計，比特幣的用例在未來十年將基本保持不變。他認為比特幣是匯款、異議和價值儲存的寶貴工具，但否認比特幣成為全球儲備貨幣的說法。

11. Bitcoin's Death by Black Swan

11. 黑天鵝導致比特幣死亡

The unpredictable nature of technology and global events poses potential risks to Bitcoin. Jackson acknowledges the theoretical possibility of a quantum computing hack or other catastrophic event, emphasizing the importance of preparedness.

技術和全球事件的不可預測性為比特幣帶來了潛在風險。傑克遜承認理論上存在量子計算駭客攻擊或其他災難性事件的可能性，並強調做好準備的重要性。

12. Telepathic Bitcoin

12. 心靈感應比特幣

Jackson envisions a futuristic scenario where Bitcoin transactions occur through telepathic communication. Inspired by Neuralink's brain-computer interface advancements, he suggests that future users may be able to send Bitcoin simply by thinking the code for a private wallet.

傑克森設想了一個未來場景，其中比特幣交易透過心靈感應通訊進行。受到 Neuralink 腦機介面進步的啟發，他建議未來用戶只需思考私人錢包的程式碼就可以發送比特幣。

Conclusion

結論

The future of Bitcoin is inherently uncertain, with a range of plausible scenarios emerging. While the cryptocurrency industry continues to evolve and innovate, the ultimate trajectory of Bitcoin will depend on a complex interplay of technical advancements, regulatory landscapes, and societal adoption patterns. As the next Bitcoin halving approaches, it is essential to embrace both optimism and pragmatism in assessing the potential directions Bitcoin may take over the next decade.

比特幣的未來本質上是不確定的，一系列可能的情況正在出現。儘管加密貨幣產業不斷發展和創新，但比特幣的最終軌跡將取決於技術進步、監管環境和社會採用模式之間的複雜相互作用。隨著下一次比特幣減半的臨近，在評估比特幣未來十年可能採取的潛在方向時，必須保持樂觀和實用主義。