比特币：突破 10 万美元大关后会发生什么？

随着加密货币女王现在接近 102,650 美元，人们对其下一个目的地的猜测盛行。我们应该期待再次飙升至前所未有的高度还是意外的调整？

Bitcoin’s recent breach of the symbolic $100,000 mark has sparked intense speculation about the cryptocurrency’s next move. After reaching a record high of $102,650, BTC is now trading above the key psychological level. But as the dust settles from this latest surge, what can we expect next for Bitcoin?

比特币最近突破了象征性的 10 万美元大关，引发了人们对该加密货币下一步走势的强烈猜测。在达到 102,650 美元的历史新高后，比特币目前的交易价格高于关键心理水平。但随着最新一轮飙升的尘埃落定，我们对比特币下一步有何期待？

Will it continue to defy gravity and scale new heights or is an unexpected correction on the horizon? An analysis of on-chain data and market psychology could provide us with valuable clues regarding the next steps for BTC.

它会继续挑战地心引力并攀上新的高度，还是即将出现意想不到的修正？对链上数据和市场心理的分析可以为我们提供有关 BTC 下一步行动的宝贵线索。

Bitcoin news: on-chain signals to watch

比特币新闻：值得关注的链上信号

Our good old crypto wanderer continues to surprise. After reaching a record of $102,650, investors are remaining curiously cautious. According to Santiment, the market still seems far from euphoria. And that’s good news: when the crowd panics, buying opportunities flourish; when it gets excited, it is often time to sell.

我们的老加密货币流浪者继续给我们带来惊喜。在达到 102,650 美元的纪录后，投资者仍保持着好奇的谨慎态度。 Santiment 表示，市场似乎仍远未达到乐观状态。这是个好消息：当人群恐慌时，买入机会就会大量涌现；当它变得兴奋时，往往就是卖出的时候了。

The on-chain data reveals that:

链上数据显示：

Investors are adding BTC to their portfolios at a rate not seen since March 2021, indicating bullish sentiment.

投资者正以 2021 年 3 月以来未见的速度将 BTC 添加到他们的投资组合中，这表明看涨情绪。

The Puell Multiple, which measures the daily issuance of BTC against its 365-day moving average, has risen to 0.89, suggesting that miners are selling a significant portion of their newly acquired BTC. This could put upward pressure on the price.

衡量 BTC 每日发行量相对于 365 天移动平均线的 Puell 倍数已升至 0.89，表明矿商正在出售其新收购的 BTC 的很大一部分。这可能会给价格带来上行压力。

The MVRV Z-Score, which compares the market value of BTC to its realized value, currently stands at 1.69, indicating that BTC is still undervalued relative to its recent highs. This could leave room for further gains.

MVRV Z 得分将 BTC 的市值与其实现价值进行比较，目前为 1.69，表明 BTC 相对于近期高点仍被低估。这可能为进一步上涨留下空间。

However, the 30-day Price Realized Zone Multiple, which measures the average price at which investors acquired their BTC, has risen to 0.98, indicating that the market is approaching a fully realized state. This could lead to a period of consolidation or correction.

然而，衡量投资者购买比特币平均价格的 30 天价格已实现区域倍数已升至 0.98，表明市场正在接近完全实现状态。这可能会导致一段时期的盘整或调整。

As Santiment pointed out:

正如桑蒂门特指出的：

“This chart is essential to know when to buy (when the crowd panics) and when to sell (when it becomes greedy)“.

“这张图表对于了解何时买入（当人群恐慌时）和何时卖出（当变得贪婪时）至关重要”。

In short, to hope to ride the next wave of BTC, it is better to keep a close eye on collective psychology.

简而言之，想要驾驭下一波比特币浪潮，最好密切关注集体心理。

Bitcoin price: well-orchestrated volatility

比特币价格：精心策划的波动

With a price hovering around $100,000, Bitcoin is playing a balancing act. The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.7% year-on-year fuels speculation about a potential interest rate decrease by the Federal Reserve. If these forecasts are confirmed, they could provide BTC with a tailwind.

随着价格徘徊在 10 万美元左右，比特币正在发挥平衡作用。最近消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，引发了人们对美联储可能降息的猜测。如果这些预测得到证实，它们可能会给比特币带来推动力。

However, investors must stay vigilant: the price of BTC is anything but predictable. Institutions like Bitwise and Bernstein are betting on a peak of $200,000 by 2025, while Fundstrat sees even bigger with a forecast of $250,000.

然而，投资者必须保持警惕：比特币的价格根本无法预测。 Bitwise 和 Bernstein 等机构押注到 2025 年将达到 200,000 美元的峰值，而 Fundstrat 的预测甚至更大，预测为 250,000 美元。

But in the meantime, Bitcoin is expected to continue to navigate between spectacular rises and brutal corrections.

但与此同时，预计比特币将继续在惊人的上涨和残酷的调整之间徘徊。

Thus, according to VanEck, 2025 promises surprises for Bitcoin: a summer correction of 30% followed by a final sprint to $180,000. Surprises will undoubtedly be on the agenda.

因此，根据 VanEck 的说法，2025 年比特币将迎来惊喜：夏季调整 30%，随后最终冲刺至 180,000 美元。惊喜无疑会提上议程。