比特币：从生命的气息到冒险的赌博

上周，虽然有涨有跌，但比特币价格仍然在较高水平波动，约为10万美元/币。

Bitcoin price increased more than 150% since the beginning of the year. From about 67,000 USD to 103,000 USD/coin in just a few weeks after Donald Trump was elected President of the United States. The key factor creating this push comes from the victory of Mr. Trump – whose views will create conditions for virtual currency (cryptocurrency, digital currency…) to develop. In addition, the virtual currency market also gained more excitement when Mr. Trump appointed a number of personnel to hold important positions to promote this type.

自年初以来，比特币价格上涨了 150% 以上。唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统后短短几周内，每枚硬币的价格从约 67,000 美元升至 103,000 美元。推动这一趋势的关键因素来自特朗普先生的胜利——他的观点将为虚拟货币（加密货币、数字货币……）的发展创造条件。此外，特朗普任命多位人员担任重要职务推动这一类型的发展，也让虚拟货币市场变得更加热闹。

Most recently, responding to US media on December 13, Mr. Trump reaffirmed his intention to establish a strategic reserve fund in Bitcoin like an oil reserve. Responding to CNBC, he asserted: “We will do something great with cryptocurrency because we don’t want China, or anyone else, to dominate.” At the Bitcoin conference in July, he announced that he would create a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” for the United States and predicted that Bitcoin could “eclipse” the gold market with a market capitalization of about $16,000 billion.

最近，特朗普在12月13日回应美国媒体时重申，他打算像石油储备一样建立比特币战略储备基金。他在接受 CNBC 采访时断言：“我们将利用加密货币做一些伟大的事情，因为我们不希望中国或其他任何人占据主导地位。”在7月的比特币会议上，他宣布将为美国创建“比特币战略储备”，并预测比特币可能以约16万亿美元的市值“超越”黄金市场。

Regarding this issue, Senator Cynthia Lummis (Republican, USA) recently introduced a bill to Congress to propose that the US buy 1 million Bitcoin in 5 years to help reduce public debt, which is at 35,000 billion USD.

针对这一问题，美国共和党参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)最近向国会提出一项法案，建议美国在5年内购买100万枚比特币，以帮助减少35万亿美元的公共债务。

Not only American politicians, some countries have also considered establishing Bitcoin reserves. Last week, information leaked that Russian lawmakers were pushing the country to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve fund. Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Bitcoin as an alternative to foreign currency reserves after Moscow had many assets frozen by the West because of its military campaign against Ukraine. In Central America, El Salvador has since 2021 become a pioneer country in Bitcoin reserves. To date, El Salvador is said to have purchased about 5,900 Bitcoins and this reserve has generated a profit of more than $100 million.

不仅是美国政客，一些国家也考虑建立比特币储备。上周，有消息称俄罗斯立法者正在推动该国创建比特币战略储备基金。此前，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)称赞比特币是外汇储备的替代品，因为莫斯科因对乌克兰的军事行动而被西方冻结了许多资产。在中美洲，萨尔瓦多自 2021 年起成为比特币储备的先驱国家。迄今为止，据称萨尔瓦多已购买了约 5,900 个比特币，这笔储备已产生超过 1 亿美元的利润。

However, although it is not recommended to remove Bitcoin or virtual currency from the investment portfolio, financial experts also continuously warn about the risks of this type of asset.

不过，虽然不建议将比特币或虚拟货币从投资组合中剔除，但金融专家也不断警告此类资产的风险。

On December 12, Blackrock published a report on investing in Bitcoin based on analysis of investment risks. This is a financial company that currently manages the largest amount of assets in the world with a value of about 11,500 billion USD and has pioneering transaction models associated with Bitcoin.

12月12日，贝莱德发布了基于投资风险分析的比特币投资报告。这是一家目前管理着全球最大资产规模约11.5万亿美元的金融公司，拥有与比特币相关的开创性交易模式。

Accordingly, Blackrock assesses that if investors have appropriate management methods and accept risks, they can include Bitcoin in a multi-asset investment portfolio. Blackrock’s report also emphasized: “Investors should be wary of Bitcoin’s risks.” “Ultimately, Bitcoin may still fail to achieve wider adoption. And the virtual currency is volatile and susceptible to sharp sell-offs,” according to the report. Additionally, the report also points out that there have been times when Bitcoin’s returns have been more closely tied to stocks and other risk assets. This means that investors cannot yet view Bitcoin as a “hedge”. Thereby, Blackrock recommends that Bitcoin should not account for more than 2% of the investment portfolio.

据此，贝莱德评估，如果投资者拥有适当的管理方法并接受风险，他们可以将比特币纳入多资产投资组合。贝莱德的报告还强调：“投资者应警惕比特币的风险。” “最终，比特币可能仍无法获得更广泛的采用。报告称，虚拟货币波动较大，容易遭受大幅抛售。此外，报告还指出，有时比特币的回报与股票和其他风险资产的联系更加紧密。这意味着投资者尚不能将比特币视为“对冲工具”。因此，贝莱德建议比特币在投资组合中的占比不应超过2%。

In fact, from November 2021 to December 2022, Bitcoin price decreased from 70,000 USD to 17,000 USD/coin. Therefore, even when Bitcoin price increases at a high level, financial experts still warn of the risk of “collapse”.

事实上，从 2021 年 11 月到 2022 年 12 月，比特币价格从 70,000 美元/币下跌至 17,000 美元/币。因此，即使比特币价格高位上涨，金融专家仍然警告“崩盘”风险。

CNN quoted expert Trent Porter (Priority Financial Partners, USA) as emphasizing: “Before you invest in Bitcoin, ask yourself if it drops 50% or more, will you fall? whether you are in a difficult financial situation or not. If the answer is yes, you should reconsider.” Mr. Porter also noted that even if the legal risk of cryptocurrencies has decreased under Mr. Trump, that does not mean the overall risk of cryptocurrencies has changed.

CNN援引专家特伦特·波特（美国Priority Financial Partners）的话说：“在你投资比特币之前，问问自己，如果它下跌50%或更多，你会下跌吗？无论您的财务状况是否困难。如果答案是肯定的，你应该重新考虑。”波特还指出，即使特朗普领导下加密货币的法律风险有所下降，但这并不意味着加密货币的整体风险发生了变化。

Similarly, Mr. Mike Turi (founder of Upbeat WealthTuri – an investment consulting company in the US) also assessed: “Bitcoin is more of a gamble than a reliable investment.” Therefore, he believes that when investing money in Bitcoin, investors need to consider it a huge risk. Sharing the same opinion as Blackrock’s report, many financial experts also believe that Bitcoin should be kept at a low proportion in the investment portfolio.

同样，Mike Turi 先生（美国投资咨询公司 Upbeat WealthTuri 创始人）也评价道：“比特币与其说是可靠的投资，不如说是一场赌博。”因此，他认为，投资者在投资比特币时，需要考虑到巨大的风险。与贝莱德报告观点一致的不少金融专家也认为，比特币在投资组合中应保持较低比例。