比特幣：從生命的氣息到冒險的賭博

上週，雖然有漲有跌，但比特幣價格仍在較高水平波動，約10萬美元/幣。

Bitcoin price increased more than 150% since the beginning of the year. From about 67,000 USD to 103,000 USD/coin in just a few weeks after Donald Trump was elected President of the United States. The key factor creating this push comes from the victory of Mr. Trump – whose views will create conditions for virtual currency (cryptocurrency, digital currency…) to develop. In addition, the virtual currency market also gained more excitement when Mr. Trump appointed a number of personnel to hold important positions to promote this type.

自年初以來，比特幣價格上漲了 150% 以上。唐納德·川普當選美國總統後短短幾週內，每枚硬幣的價格從約 67,000 美元升至 103,000 美元。推動這一趨勢的關鍵因素來自川普先生的勝利——他的觀點將為虛擬貨幣（加密貨幣、數位貨幣…）的發展創造條件。此外，川普任命多位人員擔任重要職務推動這類型的發展，也讓虛擬貨幣市場變得更加熱鬧。

Most recently, responding to US media on December 13, Mr. Trump reaffirmed his intention to establish a strategic reserve fund in Bitcoin like an oil reserve. Responding to CNBC, he asserted: “We will do something great with cryptocurrency because we don’t want China, or anyone else, to dominate.” At the Bitcoin conference in July, he announced that he would create a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” for the United States and predicted that Bitcoin could “eclipse” the gold market with a market capitalization of about $16,000 billion.

最近，川普在12月13日回應美國媒體時重申，他打算像石油儲備一樣建立比特幣戰略儲備基金。他在接受 CNBC 採訪時斷言：“我們將利用加密貨幣做一些偉大的事情，因為我們不希望中國或其他任何人佔據主導地位。”在7月的比特幣會議上，他宣布將為美國創建“比特幣戰略儲備”，並預測比特幣可能以約16兆美元的市值“超越”黃金市場。

Regarding this issue, Senator Cynthia Lummis (Republican, USA) recently introduced a bill to Congress to propose that the US buy 1 million Bitcoin in 5 years to help reduce public debt, which is at 35,000 billion USD.

針對這一問題，美國共和黨參議員辛西婭·盧米斯(Cynthia Lummis)最近向國會提出一項法案，建議美國在5年內購買100萬枚比特幣，以幫助減少35兆美元的公共債務。

Not only American politicians, some countries have also considered establishing Bitcoin reserves. Last week, information leaked that Russian lawmakers were pushing the country to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve fund. Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Bitcoin as an alternative to foreign currency reserves after Moscow had many assets frozen by the West because of its military campaign against Ukraine. In Central America, El Salvador has since 2021 become a pioneer country in Bitcoin reserves. To date, El Salvador is said to have purchased about 5,900 Bitcoins and this reserve has generated a profit of more than $100 million.

不只是美國政客，有些國家也考慮建立比特幣儲備。上週，有消息指出俄羅斯立法者正在推動該國創建比特幣戰略儲備基金。此前，俄羅斯總統普丁(Vladimir Putin)稱讚比特幣是外匯儲備的替代品，因為莫斯科因對烏克蘭的軍事行動而被西方凍結了許多資產。在中美洲，薩爾瓦多自 2021 年起成為比特幣儲備的先驅國家。迄今為止，據稱薩爾瓦多已購買了約 5,900 個比特幣，這筆儲備已產生超過 1 億美元的利潤。

However, although it is not recommended to remove Bitcoin or virtual currency from the investment portfolio, financial experts also continuously warn about the risks of this type of asset.

不過，雖然不建議將比特幣或虛擬貨幣從投資組合中剔除，但金融專家也不斷警告此類資產的風險。

On December 12, Blackrock published a report on investing in Bitcoin based on analysis of investment risks. This is a financial company that currently manages the largest amount of assets in the world with a value of about 11,500 billion USD and has pioneering transaction models associated with Bitcoin.

12月12日，貝萊德發布了基於投資風險分析的比特幣投資報告。這是一家目前管理著全球最大資產規模、價值約11.5兆美元的金融公司，擁有與比特幣相關的開創性交易模式。

Accordingly, Blackrock assesses that if investors have appropriate management methods and accept risks, they can include Bitcoin in a multi-asset investment portfolio. Blackrock’s report also emphasized: “Investors should be wary of Bitcoin’s risks.” “Ultimately, Bitcoin may still fail to achieve wider adoption. And the virtual currency is volatile and susceptible to sharp sell-offs,” according to the report. Additionally, the report also points out that there have been times when Bitcoin’s returns have been more closely tied to stocks and other risk assets. This means that investors cannot yet view Bitcoin as a “hedge”. Thereby, Blackrock recommends that Bitcoin should not account for more than 2% of the investment portfolio.

據此，貝萊德評估，如果投資者有適當的管理方法並接受風險，他們可以將比特幣納入多元資產投資組合。貝萊德的報告還強調：“投資者應警惕比特幣的風險。” 「最終，比特幣可能仍無法獲得更廣泛的採用。報告稱，虛擬貨幣波動較大，容易遭受大幅拋售。此外，報告也指出，有時比特幣的回報與股票和其他風險資產的連結更加緊密。這意味著投資者尚不能將比特幣視為「對沖工具」。因此，貝萊德建議比特幣在投資組合中的佔比不應超過2%。

In fact, from November 2021 to December 2022, Bitcoin price decreased from 70,000 USD to 17,000 USD/coin. Therefore, even when Bitcoin price increases at a high level, financial experts still warn of the risk of “collapse”.

事實上，從 2021 年 11 月到 2022 年 12 月，比特幣價格從 70,000 美元/幣下跌至 17,000 美元/幣。因此，即使比特幣價格高點上漲，金融專家仍然警告「崩盤」風險。

CNN quoted expert Trent Porter (Priority Financial Partners, USA) as emphasizing: “Before you invest in Bitcoin, ask yourself if it drops 50% or more, will you fall? whether you are in a difficult financial situation or not. If the answer is yes, you should reconsider.” Mr. Porter also noted that even if the legal risk of cryptocurrencies has decreased under Mr. Trump, that does not mean the overall risk of cryptocurrencies has changed.

CNN引述專家特倫特·波特（美國Priority Financial Partners）的話說：「在你投資比特幣之前，問問自己，如果它下跌50%或更多，你會下跌嗎？無論您的財務狀況是否困難。如果答案是肯定的，你應該重新考慮。波特也指出，即使川普領導下加密貨幣的法律風險有所下降，但這並不意味著加密貨幣的整體風險發生了變化。

Similarly, Mr. Mike Turi (founder of Upbeat WealthTuri – an investment consulting company in the US) also assessed: “Bitcoin is more of a gamble than a reliable investment.” Therefore, he believes that when investing money in Bitcoin, investors need to consider it a huge risk. Sharing the same opinion as Blackrock’s report, many financial experts also believe that Bitcoin should be kept at a low proportion in the investment portfolio.

同樣，Mike Turi 先生（美國投資諮詢公司 Upbeat WealthTuri 創始人）也評論道：“比特幣與其說是可靠的投資，不如說是一場賭博。”因此，他認為，投資者在投資比特幣時，需要考慮到巨大的風險。與貝萊德報告觀點一致的不少金融專家也認為，比特幣在投資組合中應保持較低比例。