比特幣：突破 10 萬美元大關後會發生什麼事？

隨著加密貨幣女王現在接近 102,650 美元，人們對其下一個目的地的猜測甚囂塵上。我們應該期待再次飆升至前所未有的高度還是意外的調整？

Bitcoin’s recent breach of the symbolic $100,000 mark has sparked intense speculation about the cryptocurrency’s next move. After reaching a record high of $102,650, BTC is now trading above the key psychological level. But as the dust settles from this latest surge, what can we expect next for Bitcoin?

比特幣最近突破了象徵性的 10 萬美元大關，引發了人們對該加密貨幣下一步走勢的強烈猜測。在達到 102,650 美元的歷史新高後，比特幣目前的交易價格高於關鍵心理水平。但隨著最近的飆升塵埃落定，我們對比特幣下一步可以期待什麼？

Will it continue to defy gravity and scale new heights or is an unexpected correction on the horizon? An analysis of on-chain data and market psychology could provide us with valuable clues regarding the next steps for BTC.

它會繼續挑戰地心引力並攀上新的高度，還是即將出現意想不到的修正？對鏈上數據和市場心理的分析可以為我們提供有關 BTC 下一步行動的寶貴線索。

Bitcoin news: on-chain signals to watch

比特幣新聞：值得關注的鏈上訊號

Our good old crypto wanderer continues to surprise. After reaching a record of $102,650, investors are remaining curiously cautious. According to Santiment, the market still seems far from euphoria. And that’s good news: when the crowd panics, buying opportunities flourish; when it gets excited, it is often time to sell.

我們的老加密貨幣流浪者繼續給我們帶來驚喜。在達到 102,650 美元的紀錄後，投資者仍保持著好奇的謹慎態度。 Santiment 表示，市場似乎仍遠未達到樂觀狀態。這是個好消息：當群眾恐慌時，買進機會就會大量湧現；當它變得興奮時，往往就是賣出的時候了。

The on-chain data reveals that:

鏈上數據顯示：

Investors are adding BTC to their portfolios at a rate not seen since March 2021, indicating bullish sentiment.

投資者正以 2021 年 3 月以來未見的速度將 BTC 添加到他們的投資組合中，這表明看漲情緒。

The Puell Multiple, which measures the daily issuance of BTC against its 365-day moving average, has risen to 0.89, suggesting that miners are selling a significant portion of their newly acquired BTC. This could put upward pressure on the price.

衡量 BTC 每日發行量相對於 365 天移動平均線的 Puell 倍數已升至 0.89，表明礦商正在出售其新收購的 BTC 的很大一部分。這可能會給價格帶來上行壓力。

The MVRV Z-Score, which compares the market value of BTC to its realized value, currently stands at 1.69, indicating that BTC is still undervalued relative to its recent highs. This could leave room for further gains.

MVRV Z 得分將 BTC 的市值與其實現價值進行比較，目前為 1.69，表明 BTC 相對於近期高點仍被低估。這可能為進一步上漲留下空間。

However, the 30-day Price Realized Zone Multiple, which measures the average price at which investors acquired their BTC, has risen to 0.98, indicating that the market is approaching a fully realized state. This could lead to a period of consolidation or correction.

然而，衡量投資者購買比特幣平均價格的 30 天價格已實現區域倍數已升至 0.98，表明市場正在接近完全實現狀態。這可能會導致一段時期的盤整或調整。

As Santiment pointed out:

正如桑蒂門特所指出的：

“This chart is essential to know when to buy (when the crowd panics) and when to sell (when it becomes greedy)“.

「這張圖表對於了解何時買入（當人群恐慌時）和何時賣出（當變得貪婪時）至關重要」。

In short, to hope to ride the next wave of BTC, it is better to keep a close eye on collective psychology.

簡而言之，想要駕馭下一波比特幣浪潮，最好密切關注集體心理。

Bitcoin price: well-orchestrated volatility

比特幣價格：精心策劃的波動

With a price hovering around $100,000, Bitcoin is playing a balancing act. The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.7% year-on-year fuels speculation about a potential interest rate decrease by the Federal Reserve. If these forecasts are confirmed, they could provide BTC with a tailwind.

隨著價格徘徊在 10 萬美元左右，比特幣正在發揮平衡作用。最近消費者物價指數（CPI）較去年同期上漲2.7%，引發了人們對聯準會可能降息的猜測。如果這些預測得到證實，它們可能會為比特幣帶來推動力。

However, investors must stay vigilant: the price of BTC is anything but predictable. Institutions like Bitwise and Bernstein are betting on a peak of $200,000 by 2025, while Fundstrat sees even bigger with a forecast of $250,000.

然而，投資人必須保持警惕：比特幣的價格根本無法預測。 Bitwise 和 Bernstein 等機構押注到 2025 年將達到 20 萬美元的峰值，而 Fundstrat 的預測甚至更大，預測為 25 萬美元。

But in the meantime, Bitcoin is expected to continue to navigate between spectacular rises and brutal corrections.

但與此同時，預計比特幣將繼續在驚人的上漲和殘酷的調整之間徘徊。

Thus, according to VanEck, 2025 promises surprises for Bitcoin: a summer correction of 30% followed by a final sprint to $180,000. Surprises will undoubtedly be on the agenda.

因此，根據 VanEck 的說法，2025 年比特幣將迎來驚喜：夏季調整 30%，隨後最終衝刺至 18 萬美元。驚喜無疑會提上議程。