随着抛售压力和分配恐惧的出现，比特币的兴奋感减弱

比特币终于两个月来首次跌破 60,000 美元的支撑位。自今年年初以来，这一全球最大的数字资产基本上处于欣欣向荣的阶段，特别是在美国市场推出现货比特币 ETF 之后。然而，目前比特币价格的盘整表明这种乐观情绪可能正在消退。

Bitcoin Euphoria Fades: Selling Pressure and Distribution Fear Emerge

比特币狂热消退：抛售压力和分配恐惧出现

Bitcoin's triumphant reign above the $60,000 support level has come to an end, marking the first time in two months that the digital asset has breached this critical threshold. The former market euphoria that propelled Bitcoin to record highs since the beginning of the year, fueled by the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, has seemingly dissipated. This consolidation in Bitcoin's price action signals a potential waning of the euphoric sentiment that has characterized the market for the past 6.5 months.

比特币在 60,000 美元支撑位之上的胜利统治已经结束，这标志着该数字资产两个月来首次突破这一关键门槛。在美国推出现货比特币 ETF 的推动下，自今年年初以来推动比特币创下历史新高的市场乐观情绪似乎已经消散。比特币价格走势的盘整标志着过去 6.5 个月市场的乐观情绪可能减弱。

A recent report from Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, paints a sobering picture of the current market dynamics. According to the report, Bitcoin's euphoria, which has been sustained since March 2022, appears to be waning. Simultaneously, the distribution of BTC has entered the "fear zone," indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward favoring selling.

链上分析公司 Glassnode 最近的一份报告描绘了当前市场动态的发人深省的图景。该报告称，自 2022 年 3 月以来一直持续的比特币热潮似乎正在减弱。与此同时，比特币的分布已进入“恐惧区”，表明投资者情绪转向倾向于抛售。

Surge in Selling Pressure

抛售压力激增

Bitcoin's price surge to an all-time high of over $73,737 in March 2024 has been followed by an 18% decline as investors seek to lock in profits. This price correction has coincided with a rise in the percentage of addresses holding losses, suggesting an increase in selling pressure. The proportion of addresses making a profit has declined significantly, falling from over 99% to 86% at the time of writing.

2024 年 3 月，比特币价格飙升至超过 73,737 美元的历史新高，随后由于投资者寻求锁定利润而下跌 18%。此次价格调整与持有亏损的地址百分比上升同时发生，表明抛售压力增加。盈利地址比例大幅下降，从撰写本文时的 99% 以上下降至 86%。

On-chain analytics platform Glassnode highlights the consolidation in its latest report. The Net Unrealized Profit & Loss (NUPL) metric reveals that Bitcoin entered a euphoric mode very early in this market cycle compared to previous cycles. Notably, the NUPL crossed over 0.5 approximately 6.5 months before the recent halving, amidst the hype surrounding Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

链上分析平台 Glassnode 在其最新报告中强调了这一整合。净未实现损益（NUPL）指标显示，与之前的周期相比，比特币在本次市场周期中很早就进入了欣快模式。值得注意的是，在最近的减半之前大约 6.5 个月，在围绕现货比特币 ETF 的炒作中，NUPL 突破了 0.5。

In comparison, during the 2021 market cycle, the NUPL entered into the profit zone 8.5 months after the Bitcoin halving. The current metric suggests that the market remained in an euphoric phase for the past seven months but has cooled off significantly due to corrections in the past two months.

相比之下，在2021年的市场周期中，NUPL在比特币减半后8.5个月进入盈利区。目前的指标表明，过去七个月市场仍处于乐观阶段，但由于过去两个月的调整，市场已大幅降温。

Net Outflows Signal Bearish Sentiment

净流出信号看跌情绪

The report further highlights a "distinct uptick in net outflows" across all wallet sizes throughout April, signaling a shift in sentiment among traders. This indicates that traders of all sizes are now favoring the selling side. Moreover, a majority of short-term (one week to one month) holders have been posting losses on the 90-day +1sd level since March.

该报告进一步强调了整个 4 月份所有钱包规模的“净流出明显上升”，这表明交易者的情绪发生了变化。这表明各种规模的交易者现在都偏向卖方。此外，自 3 月份以来，大多数短期（一周至一个月）持有者的损失一直处于 90 天+1 标准水平。

Implications for Bitcoin's Future

对比特币未来的影响

While the "fear" rating may raise concerns among investors, it is important to note that a pullback after a substantial price increase is considered a healthy correction by most crypto analysts. Many long-term holders remain optimistic, anticipating the potential positive effects of the upcoming halving event.

虽然“恐惧”评级可能会引起投资者的担忧，但值得注意的是，大多数加密货币分析师认为价格大幅上涨后的回调是健康的调整。许多长期持有者仍保持乐观，预计即将到来的减半事件可能产生积极影响。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $59,899, down 5.35% in the past 24 hours. Considering the current cost-basis for short-term holders (STH) is at $66,700, and their realized price is at $59,800, a substantial number of holders in this cohort have likely entered into the loss zone.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 59,899 美元，过去 24 小时内下跌 5.35%。考虑到短期持有者 (STH) 目前的成本基础为 66,700 美元，其实现价格为 59,800 美元，该群体中的大量持有者可能已进入损失区。

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies $59,800 as a pivotal price level to monitor. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to rebound above the STH realized price, providing a potential support level.

加密货币分析师 Ali Martinez 认为 59,800 美元是需要监控的关键价格水平。从历史上看，比特币往往会反弹至实际价格之上，从而提供潜在的支撑位。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin's recent price consolidation marks a shift in market sentiment. The euphoria that has buoyed the digital asset for the past six months appears to be fading, replaced by selling pressure and distribution fear. While this may cause concern for some investors, it is essential to recognize that such corrections are typical in market cycles and can be opportunities for long-term investors. With the halving event on the horizon, Bitcoin's future remains uncertain, but its underlying fundamentals and long-term growth drivers provide a compelling case for optimism.

比特币最近的价格整合标志着市场情绪的转变。过去六个月提振数字资产的乐观情绪似乎正在消退，取而代之的是抛售压力和分销恐惧。虽然这可能会引起一些投资者的担忧，但必须认识到，这种调整是市场周期中的典型现象，并且可能是长期投资者的机会。随着减半事件的临近，比特币的未来仍然不确定，但其基本面和长期增长动力提供了令人信服的乐观理由。