隨著拋售壓力和分配恐懼的出現，比特幣的興奮感減弱

比特幣終於兩個月來首次跌破 6 萬美元的支撐位。自今年年初以來，這全球最大的數位資產基本上處於欣欣向榮的階段，特別是在美國市場推出現貨比特幣 ETF 之後。然而，目前比特幣價格的盤整表明這種樂觀情緒可能正在消退。

Bitcoin Euphoria Fades: Selling Pressure and Distribution Fear Emerge

比特幣狂熱消退：拋售壓力和分配恐懼出現

Bitcoin's triumphant reign above the $60,000 support level has come to an end, marking the first time in two months that the digital asset has breached this critical threshold. The former market euphoria that propelled Bitcoin to record highs since the beginning of the year, fueled by the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, has seemingly dissipated. This consolidation in Bitcoin's price action signals a potential waning of the euphoric sentiment that has characterized the market for the past 6.5 months.

比特幣在 60,000 美元支撐位之上的勝利統治已經結束，這標誌著該數位資產兩個月來首次突破這一關鍵門檻。在美國推出現貨比特幣 ETF 的推動下，自今年年初以來推動比特幣創下歷史新高的市場樂觀情緒似乎已經消散。比特幣價格走勢的盤整標誌著過去 6.5 個月市場的樂觀情緒可能減弱。

A recent report from Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, paints a sobering picture of the current market dynamics. According to the report, Bitcoin's euphoria, which has been sustained since March 2022, appears to be waning. Simultaneously, the distribution of BTC has entered the "fear zone," indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward favoring selling.

鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 最近的一份報告描繪了當前市場動態的發人深省的圖景。該報告稱，自 2022 年 3 月以來持續的比特幣熱潮似乎正在減弱。與此同時，比特幣的分佈已進入“恐懼區”，表明投資者情緒轉向傾向於拋售。

Surge in Selling Pressure

拋售壓力激增

Bitcoin's price surge to an all-time high of over $73,737 in March 2024 has been followed by an 18% decline as investors seek to lock in profits. This price correction has coincided with a rise in the percentage of addresses holding losses, suggesting an increase in selling pressure. The proportion of addresses making a profit has declined significantly, falling from over 99% to 86% at the time of writing.

2024 年 3 月，比特幣價格飆升至超過 73,737 美元的歷史新高，隨後由於投資者尋求鎖定利潤而下跌 18%。此次價格調整與持有虧損的地址百分比上升同時發生，顯示拋售壓力增加。獲利地址比例大幅下降，從撰寫本文時的 99% 以上下降至 86%。

On-chain analytics platform Glassnode highlights the consolidation in its latest report. The Net Unrealized Profit & Loss (NUPL) metric reveals that Bitcoin entered a euphoric mode very early in this market cycle compared to previous cycles. Notably, the NUPL crossed over 0.5 approximately 6.5 months before the recent halving, amidst the hype surrounding Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

鏈上分析平台 Glassnode 在其最新報告中強調了這項整合。淨未實現損益（NUPL）指標顯示，與先前的周期相比，比特幣在本次市場週期中很早就進入了欣快模式。值得注意的是，在最近的減半之前大約 6.5 個月，在圍繞現貨比特幣 ETF 的炒作中，NUPL 突破了 0.5。

In comparison, during the 2021 market cycle, the NUPL entered into the profit zone 8.5 months after the Bitcoin halving. The current metric suggests that the market remained in an euphoric phase for the past seven months but has cooled off significantly due to corrections in the past two months.

相較之下，在2021年的市場週期中，NUPL在比特幣減半後8.5個月進入獲利區。目前的指標表明，過去七個月市場仍處於樂觀階段，但由於過去兩個月的調整，市場已大幅降溫。

Net Outflows Signal Bearish Sentiment

淨流出訊號看跌情緒

The report further highlights a "distinct uptick in net outflows" across all wallet sizes throughout April, signaling a shift in sentiment among traders. This indicates that traders of all sizes are now favoring the selling side. Moreover, a majority of short-term (one week to one month) holders have been posting losses on the 90-day +1sd level since March.

該報告進一步強調了整個 4 月所有錢包規模的“淨流出明顯上升”，這表明交易者的情緒發生了變化。這表明各種規模的交易者現在都偏向賣方。此外，自 3 月以來，大多數短期（一周至一個月）持有者的損失一直處於 90 天+1 標準水準。

Implications for Bitcoin's Future

對比特幣未來的影響

While the "fear" rating may raise concerns among investors, it is important to note that a pullback after a substantial price increase is considered a healthy correction by most crypto analysts. Many long-term holders remain optimistic, anticipating the potential positive effects of the upcoming halving event.

雖然「恐懼」評級可能會引起投資者的擔憂，但值得注意的是，大多數加密貨幣分析師認為價格大幅上漲後的回檔是健康的調整。許多長期持有者仍保持樂觀，預計即將到來的減半事件可能會產生正面影響。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $59,899, down 5.35% in the past 24 hours. Considering the current cost-basis for short-term holders (STH) is at $66,700, and their realized price is at $59,800, a substantial number of holders in this cohort have likely entered into the loss zone.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 59,899 美元，過去 24 小時內下跌 5.35%。考慮到短期持有者 (STH) 目前的成本基礎為 66,700 美元，其實現價格為 59,800 美元，該群體中的大量持有者可能已進入損失區。

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies $59,800 as a pivotal price level to monitor. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to rebound above the STH realized price, providing a potential support level.

加密貨幣分析師 Ali Martinez 認為 59,800 美元是需要監控的關鍵物價水準。從歷史上看，比特幣往往會反彈至實際價格之上，從而提供潛在的支撐位。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's recent price consolidation marks a shift in market sentiment. The euphoria that has buoyed the digital asset for the past six months appears to be fading, replaced by selling pressure and distribution fear. While this may cause concern for some investors, it is essential to recognize that such corrections are typical in market cycles and can be opportunities for long-term investors. With the halving event on the horizon, Bitcoin's future remains uncertain, but its underlying fundamentals and long-term growth drivers provide a compelling case for optimism.

比特幣最近的價格整合標誌著市場情緒的轉變。過去六個月提振數位資產的樂觀情緒似乎正在消退，取而代之的是拋售壓力和分銷恐懼。雖然這可能會引起一些投資者的擔憂，但必須認識到，這種調整是市場週期中的典型現象，並且可能是長期投資者的機會。隨著減半事件的臨近，比特幣的未來仍然不確定，但其基本面和長期成長動力提供了令人信服的樂觀理由。