尽管价格下跌，比特币 ETF 仍有望卷土重来，鲸鱼投资者关注支撑位

Will Bitcoin ETFs Stage a Comeback Despite BTC's Slump?

尽管比特币暴跌，比特币 ETF 仍会卷土重来吗？

The recent market volatility has left a cloud over the spot Bitcoin ETF market, with Bitcoin's price decline casting a long shadow. Data from BitMEX Research paints a bleak picture, showing that Bitcoin ETFs have experienced four consecutive trading sessions of negative net flow.

近期的市场波动给比特币ETF现货市场蒙上了一层阴云，比特币价格的下跌蒙上了长长的阴影。 BitMEX Research 的数据描绘了一幅惨淡的景象，显示比特币 ETF 已连续四个交易日出现负净流量。

Outflows Dominate, Hope Emerges

资金外流占主导地位，希望出现

Grayscale's GBTC has been the primary source of outflows, while other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, have seen tepid inflows. Amid this downward spiral, a glimmer of hope emerges from Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju's analysis.

Grayscale 的 GBTC 一直是资金流出的主要来源，而包括 BlackRock 的 IBIT 和 Fidelity 的 FBTC 在内的其他 ETF 的资金流入则不温不火。在这种螺旋式下降的过程中，Cryptoquant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 的分析中出现了一线希望。

Whale Investors' Buying Threshold

鲸鱼投资者的买入门槛

In a recent broadcast, Young Ju posits that a surge in spot Bitcoin ETF netflows may be imminent, despite BTC's price weakness. His analysis suggests that demand for Bitcoin ETFs tends to rise when the cryptocurrency approaches certain support levels.

在最近的一次广播中，Young Ju 认为，尽管 BTC 价格疲软，现货比特币 ETF 净流量可能即将激增。他的分析表明，当加密货币接近某些支撑位时，对比特币 ETF 的需求往往会上升。

Young Ju has identified that new Bitcoin whales, primarily ETF investors, tend to acquire Bitcoin at an on-chain cost basis of $56,000. This suggests that if Bitcoin's price falls to that level, a wave of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could materialize.

Young Ju 发现，新的比特币鲸鱼（主要是 ETF 投资者）倾向于以 56,000 美元的链上成本购买比特币。这表明，如果比特币价格跌至这一水平，可能会出现一波流入现货比特币 ETF 的浪潮。

Will Bitcoin Reach $56,000?

比特币会达到 56,000 美元吗？

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering between $62,000 and $68,000. Young Ju believes a drop to $56,000 is possible, as historical price adjustments have resulted in declines of up to 30%. He forecasts that Bitcoin could even reach as low as $51,000.

目前，比特币价格徘徊在 62,000 美元至 68,000 美元之间。 Young Ju 认为，价格有可能跌至 56,000 美元，因为历史价格调整导致跌幅高达 30%。他预测比特币甚至可能跌至 51,000 美元。

Technicals and Market Sentiment

技术面和市场情绪

Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,065.74, down 3.73% over the past day and 7.17% over the past week. Trading volume has also decreased by 3.53%, reaching $39.62 billion.

比特币目前交易价格约为 64,065.74 美元，过去一天下跌 3.73%，过去一周下跌 7.17%。交易量也下降了3.53%，达到396.2亿美元。

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may have peaked ahead of the upcoming April halving event. If this is the case, Bitcoin may not recover its previous highs anytime soon and could face further declines in the coming weeks.

一些分析师认为，比特币可能在即将到来的四月减半事件之前已经见顶。如果是这种情况，比特币可能不会很快恢复之前的高点，并可能在未来几周内面临进一步下跌。

Market Outlook

市场展望

The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and the recent price swings are not uncommon. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation to see how it unfolds.

加密货币市场以其波动性而闻名，最近的价格波动并不罕见。市场参与者正在密切关注事态的发展。