儘管價格下跌，比特幣 ETF 仍有望捲土重來，鯨魚投資者關注支撐位

Will Bitcoin ETFs Stage a Comeback Despite BTC's Slump?

儘管比特幣暴跌，比特幣 ETF 仍會捲土重來嗎？

The recent market volatility has left a cloud over the spot Bitcoin ETF market, with Bitcoin's price decline casting a long shadow. Data from BitMEX Research paints a bleak picture, showing that Bitcoin ETFs have experienced four consecutive trading sessions of negative net flow.

近期的市場波動為比特幣ETF現貨市場蒙上了一層陰雲，比特幣價格的下跌蒙上了長長的陰影。 BitMEX Research 的數據描繪了一幅慘淡的景象，顯示比特幣 ETF 已連續四個交易日出現負淨流量。

Outflows Dominate, Hope Emerges

資金外流占主導地位，希望出現

Grayscale's GBTC has been the primary source of outflows, while other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, have seen tepid inflows. Amid this downward spiral, a glimmer of hope emerges from Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju's analysis.

Grayscale 的 GBTC 一直是資金流出的主要來源，而包括 BlackRock 的 IBIT 和 Fidelity 的 FBTC 在內的其他 ETF 的資金流入則不溫不火。在這種螺旋式下降的過程中，Cryptoquant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 的分析中出現了一線希望。

Whale Investors' Buying Threshold

鯨魚投資者的買入門檻

In a recent broadcast, Young Ju posits that a surge in spot Bitcoin ETF netflows may be imminent, despite BTC's price weakness. His analysis suggests that demand for Bitcoin ETFs tends to rise when the cryptocurrency approaches certain support levels.

在最近的一次廣播中，Young Ju 認為，儘管 BTC 價格疲軟，現貨比特幣 ETF 淨流量可能即將激增。他的分析表明，當加密貨幣接近某些支撐位時，對比特幣 ETF 的需求往往會上升。

Young Ju has identified that new Bitcoin whales, primarily ETF investors, tend to acquire Bitcoin at an on-chain cost basis of $56,000. This suggests that if Bitcoin's price falls to that level, a wave of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could materialize.

Young Ju 發現，新的比特幣鯨魚（主要是 ETF 投資者）傾向於以 56,000 美元的鏈上成本購買比特幣。這表明，如果比特幣價格跌至這一水平，可能會出現一波流入現貨比特幣 ETF 的浪潮。

Will Bitcoin Reach $56,000?

比特幣會達到 56,000 美元嗎？

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering between $62,000 and $68,000. Young Ju believes a drop to $56,000 is possible, as historical price adjustments have resulted in declines of up to 30%. He forecasts that Bitcoin could even reach as low as $51,000.

目前，比特幣價格徘徊在 62,000 美元至 68,000 美元之間。 Young Ju 認為，價格有可能跌至 56,000 美元，因為歷史價格調整導致跌幅高達 30%。他預測比特幣甚至可能跌至 51,000 美元。

Technicals and Market Sentiment

技術面和市場情緒

Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,065.74, down 3.73% over the past day and 7.17% over the past week. Trading volume has also decreased by 3.53%, reaching $39.62 billion.

比特幣目前交易價格約 64,065.74 美元，過去一天下跌 3.73%，過去一週下跌 7.17%。交易量也下降了3.53%，達到396.2億美元。

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may have peaked ahead of the upcoming April halving event. If this is the case, Bitcoin may not recover its previous highs anytime soon and could face further declines in the coming weeks.

一些分析師認為，比特幣可能在即將到來的四月減半事件之前已經見頂。如果是這種情況，比特幣可能不會很快恢復先前的高點，並可能在未來幾週內面臨進一步下跌。

Market Outlook

市場展望

The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and the recent price swings are not uncommon. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation to see how it unfolds.

加密貨幣市場以其波動性而聞名，最近的價格波動並不罕見。市場參與者正在密切關注事態的發展。