比特币在减半前进入“危险区”，有进一步下跌的风险

加密货币分析师 Rekt Capital 警告称，比特币 (BTC) 可能会在 5 月减半事件之前经历进一步下跌，并援引了类似时期 20% 至 40% 修正的历史趋势。该交易员注意到与 2016 年减半周期的相似之处，表明减半事件发生前可能会出现更深的下跌。 Rekt Capital 预测，比特币目前的牛市峰值可能会在 2024 年 11 月至 2025 年 2 月之间出现，承认峰值之间间隔较长的历史趋势。

Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Danger Zone: A Cautionary Tale

比特币减半前的危险区：一个警示故事

Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a Deeper Dip?

比特币是否正处于进一步下跌的边缘？

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, boasting an impressive following of 433,000 on X, has sounded the alarm, warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a further pullback ahead of next month's highly anticipated halving event. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced corrections ranging from 20% to 40% in the lead-up to such halving events.

加密货币分析师 Rekt Capital 在 X 上拥有 433,000 名令人印象深刻的追随者，该公司已拉响警报，警告称比特币 (BTC) 可能会在下个月备受期待的减半事件之前进一步回调。从历史上看，比特币在减半事件之前经历了 20% 到 40% 的调整。

Rekt Capital emphasizes that Bitcoin has officially entered a "danger zone," where the crypto king has historically retraced before halving events. This time window, approximately 14-28 days prior to the halving, has now opened. With just 26 days to go until the halving, Bitcoin has already retraced nearly 18% since last week.

Rekt Capital 强调，比特币已经正式进入“危险区”，加密王在减半事件之前历史性地回撤到了这个区域。这个时间窗口，大约是减半前 14-28 天，现已打开。距离减半仅剩 26 天，比特币自上周以来已回撤近 18%。

Drawing Parallels to 2016: A Cautionary Tale

与 2016 年相比：一个警示故事

The analyst draws parallels between Bitcoin's current price pattern and the 2016 cycle, suggesting the possibility of a deeper dip before the halving. In 2016, Bitcoin initiated its pre-halving retrace approximately 28 days before the event, while in 2024, the retrace began around 32 days before. Notably, in 2016, Bitcoin's initial retrace produced a long downside wick before retracing further. This pattern is mirrored in the current price action, raising concerns about a similar fate.

这位分析师将比特币当前的价格模式与 2016 年周期进行了比较，表明比特币在减半之前可能会进一步下跌。 2016 年，比特币在减半事件发生前约 28 天启动了减半前回撤，而 2024 年，减半前回撤则在事件发生前约 32 天开始。值得注意的是，2016 年，比特币的最初回调产生了较长的下行影线，然后进一步回调。这种模式反映在当前的价格走势中，引发了人们对类似命运的担忧。

Predicting Bitcoin's Bull Market Peak: When the Party Ends

预测比特币牛市高峰：派对何时结束

Rekt Capital also ventures into the realm of predicting Bitcoin's potential peak in the current bull market cycle. Based on historical trends, Bitcoin tends to reach its bull market top 266-315 days after breaking its previous all-time high. Given that Bitcoin recently surpassed its previous highs, the analyst suggests the next peak may occur sometime between late November 2024 and late January 2025.

Rekt Capital 还涉足预测当前牛市周期中比特币潜在峰值的领域。根据历史趋势，比特币往往会在突破之前的历史高点后 266-315 天达到牛市顶部。鉴于比特币最近超过了之前的高点，分析师认为下一个峰值可能会出现在 2024 年 11 月下旬至 2025 年 1 月下旬之间的某个时间。

A Shifting Timeline: Bitcoin's Evolving Peaks

不断变化的时间线：比特币不断演变的巅峰

However, the analyst acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically taken longer to reach peaks in each cycle, which could push the peak of the current bull market to December 2024 or mid-February 2025. This extended timeline is attributed to the increasing number of days Bitcoin spends beyond its old all-time highs.

然而，分析师承认，从历史上看，比特币在每个周期中达到峰值的时间可能会更长，这可能会将当前牛市的峰值推至 2024 年 12 月或 2025 年 2 月中旬。这种延长的时间线归因于比特币花费的天数增加超越其历史新高。

Bitcoin's Current State: A Technical Perspective

比特币的现状：技术视角

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $65,410, having lost over 3% in the past 24 hours. This recent dip underscores the analyst's cautionary stance, highlighting the potential for further downside before the halving event.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 65,410 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 3%。最近的下跌凸显了分析师的谨慎立场，凸显了减半事件之前进一步下跌的可能性。