比特幣在減半前進入“危險區”，有進一步下跌的風險

加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 警告稱，比特幣 (BTC) 可能會在 5 月減半事件之前經歷進一步下跌，並引用了類似時期 20% 至 40% 修正的歷史趨勢。該交易員注意到與 2016 年減半週期的相似之處，顯示減半事件發生前可能會出現更深的下跌。 Rekt Capital 預測，比特幣目前的多頭高峰可能會在 2024 年 11 月至 2025 年 2 月之間出現，承認高峰之間間隔較長的歷史趨勢。

Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Danger Zone: A Cautionary Tale

比特幣減半前的危險區：一個警世故事

Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a Deeper Dip?

比特幣是否正處於進一步下跌的邊緣？

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, boasting an impressive following of 433,000 on X, has sounded the alarm, warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a further pullback ahead of next month's highly anticipated halving event. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced corrections ranging from 20% to 40% in the lead-up to such halving events.

加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 在 X 上擁有 433,000 名令人印象深刻的追隨者，該公司已拉響警報，警告稱比特幣 (BTC) 可能會在下個月備受期待的減半事件之前進一步回調。從歷史上看，比特幣在減半事件之前經歷了 20% 到 40% 的調整。

Rekt Capital emphasizes that Bitcoin has officially entered a "danger zone," where the crypto king has historically retraced before halving events. This time window, approximately 14-28 days prior to the halving, has now opened. With just 26 days to go until the halving, Bitcoin has already retraced nearly 18% since last week.

Rekt Capital 強調，比特幣已經正式進入“危險區”，加密王在減半事件之前歷史性地回撤到了這個區域。這個時間窗口，大約是減半前 14-28 天，現已開啟。距離減半僅剩 26 天，比特幣自上週以來已回撤近 18%。

Drawing Parallels to 2016: A Cautionary Tale

與 2016 年相比：一個警世故事

The analyst draws parallels between Bitcoin's current price pattern and the 2016 cycle, suggesting the possibility of a deeper dip before the halving. In 2016, Bitcoin initiated its pre-halving retrace approximately 28 days before the event, while in 2024, the retrace began around 32 days before. Notably, in 2016, Bitcoin's initial retrace produced a long downside wick before retracing further. This pattern is mirrored in the current price action, raising concerns about a similar fate.

這位分析師將比特幣當前的價格模式與 2016 年周期進行了比較，表明比特幣在減半之前可能會進一步下跌。 2016 年，比特幣在減半事件發生前約 28 天啟動了減半前回撤，而 2024 年，減半前回撤則在事件發生前約 32 天開始。值得注意的是，2016 年，比特幣的最初回調產生了較長的下行影線，然後進一步回調。這種模式反映在當前的價格走勢中，引發了人們對類似命運的擔憂。

Predicting Bitcoin's Bull Market Peak: When the Party Ends

預測比特幣牛市高峰：派對何時結束

Rekt Capital also ventures into the realm of predicting Bitcoin's potential peak in the current bull market cycle. Based on historical trends, Bitcoin tends to reach its bull market top 266-315 days after breaking its previous all-time high. Given that Bitcoin recently surpassed its previous highs, the analyst suggests the next peak may occur sometime between late November 2024 and late January 2025.

Rekt Capital 也涉足預測當前牛市週期中比特幣潛在高峰的領域。根據歷史趨勢，比特幣往往會在突破之前的歷史高點後 266-315 天達到多頭市場頂部。鑑於比特幣最近超過了先前的高點，分析師認為下一個高峰可能會出現在 2024 年 11 月下旬至 2025 年 1 月下旬之間的某個時間。

A Shifting Timeline: Bitcoin's Evolving Peaks

不斷變化的時間線：比特幣不斷演變的巔峰

However, the analyst acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically taken longer to reach peaks in each cycle, which could push the peak of the current bull market to December 2024 or mid-February 2025. This extended timeline is attributed to the increasing number of days Bitcoin spends beyond its old all-time highs.

然而，分析師承認，從歷史上看，比特幣在每個週期中達到高峰的時間可能會更長，這可能會將當前牛市的峰值推至2024 年12 月或2025 年2 月中旬。這種延長的時間線歸因於比特幣花費的天數增加超越其歷史新高。

Bitcoin's Current State: A Technical Perspective

比特幣的現狀：技術視角

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $65,410, having lost over 3% in the past 24 hours. This recent dip underscores the analyst's cautionary stance, highlighting the potential for further downside before the halving event.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 65,410 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌超過 3%。最近的下跌凸顯了分析師的謹慎立場，凸顯了減半事件之前進一步下跌的可能性。