山寨幣季節已經到來？反彈背後原因及能否持續分析

比特幣似乎不是唯一表現良好的貨幣，資金開始流入主流山寨幣。

Bitcoin is not the only one that is performing well, and funds are flowing into mainstream altcoins.

比特幣並不是唯一表現良好的貨幣，資金正在流入主流山寨幣。

According to Quantify Crypto data, 185 of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value rose in the past 24 hours, and only 15 fell. The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value rose by more than 8%, with ETH breaking through 3,400 USDT, up 9.7% in 24 hours; SOL breaking through 260 USDT, a record high; Ethereum’s second-layer OP and ARB both rose by more than 15%. On social media, many investors said that the "copycat season" has finally arrived.

根據Quantify Crypto數據，市值排名前200的加密貨幣中有185種在過去24小時內上漲，只有15種下跌。市值前100名加密貨幣漲幅超8%，其中ETH突破3,400 USDT，24小時漲幅9.7%； SOL突破260 USDT，創歷史新高；以太坊第二層OP和ARB漲幅均超過15%。社群媒體上，不少投資人表示「山寨季」終於到來了。

Has the altcoin season arrived? Odaily Planet Daily will explain the reasons for the altcoin price rebound and analyze whether it can continue. (Note: The author separates the memes on the chain from the altcoin team, and the memes listed on the top exchanges are classified as altcoins.)

山寨幣季節到來了嗎？ Odaily星球日報將解釋山寨幣價格反彈的原因並分析是否可以持續。 （註：作者將鏈上的 meme 與山寨幣團隊分開，頂級交易所上架的 meme 歸山寨幣。）

Why are altcoins rising?

為什麼山寨幣會上漲？

The transaction volume of well-known memes on the chain has decreased, and the community discussion has decreased

鏈上知名表情包交易量減少，社群討論減少

Previously, the price of Bitcoin continued to break new highs, while altcoins fell instead of rising, which also led to the market generally not being optimistic about altcoins in this bull market, especially some VC coins that were facing large-scale unlocking.

先前，比特幣價格不斷突破新高，而山寨幣不升反降，也導致市場普遍不看好本次牛市的山寨幣，尤其是一些面臨大規模解鎖的VC幣。

Therefore, the market is looking to launch fairer meme sectors, and most funds are going to the chain for PVP. The mainstream altcoins of the past have a large market value, but their liquidity is not as good as a meme project that has just exploded. For example, the daily trading volume of the top 100 tokens in terms of market value is not even as good as that of the newly popular CHILL GUY.

因此，市場尋求推出更公平的meme板塊，大部分資金都流向鏈上PVP。過去的主流山寨幣都有很大的市值，但流動性卻不如剛爆發的meme項目。例如，市值排名前100的代幣日交易量甚至不如新流行的CHILL GUY。

However, the high intensity of PVP in meme also discourages people, and it is inevitable that funds will return to altcoins, and meme and altcoins begin to rotate funds. The rise of altcoins this time is partly due to the decline in the popularity of memes on the chain, including:

然而meme中高強度的PVP也讓人望而卻步，資金回歸山寨幣是必然的，meme和山寨幣開始輪動資金。這次山寨幣的崛起，部分原因是鏈上表情包熱度下降，包括：

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is about to leave, and altcoins are having a carnival

SEC主席Gary Gensler即將離任，山寨幣正在狂歡

Since the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the crypto market has continued to rise, and the market is also looking forward to the next cryptocurrency to go mainstream.

自從比特幣和以太坊現貨ETF核准以來，加密貨幣市場持續上漲，市場也期待下一個加密貨幣成為主流。

Today, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote: "Cboe has submitted applications to the US SEC for four Solana spot ETFs, the issuers are VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital and Bitwise. If the SEC does not reject the above application, the final deadline will be around early August next year."

今天，彭博社高級 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 寫道：「Cboe 已向美國 SEC 提交了四隻 Solana 現貨 ETF 的申請，發行人為 VanEck、21Shares、Canary Capital 和 Bitwise。如果 SEC 不拒絕上述申請，最終截止日期明年八月初左右。

The application for a cryptocurrency spot ETF requires the issuer to prepare two documents, namely S-1 and 19b-4. This time it is the S-1 document, which represents the document required for the SOL spot ETF to be listed. The documents that really face review difficulties are mostly concentrated in 19b-4. Therefore, the SOL spot ETF is just getting started.

申請加密貨幣現貨ETF需要發行人準備兩份文件，即S-1和19b-4。這次是S-1文件，代表SOL現貨ETF上市所需的文件。真正面臨審核困難的文件大多集中在19b-4。因此，SOL現貨ETF才剛起步。

However, SEC Chairman Gary announced on the X platform that he would officially resign on January 20. The new SEC Chairman may speed up the review of the SOL spot ETF, and it may not have to be extended to the final deadline like the previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

不過，SEC 主席 Gary 在 X 平台宣布，將於 1 月 20 日正式辭職。

In addition, Gary's upcoming departure also gave the heavily regulated altcoin projects a respite. Ripple, which has always had a grudge with the US SEC, saw its token XRP rise by nearly 30% in a single day.

此外，Gary即將離職也給了受到嚴格監管的山寨幣計畫喘息的機會。一直與美國SEC結怨的Ripple，其代幣XRP單日漲幅近30%。

With the support of regulation and SOL spot ETF, it is reasonable for altcoins to rise.

在監管和SOL現貨ETF的支撐下，山寨幣上漲也在情理之中。

Can altcoins continue to rise?

山寨幣還能繼續漲嗎？

Whether the rise of altcoins can continue still requires observation and verification from more dimensions.

山寨幣的崛起能否持續，仍需要更多維度的觀察與驗證。

In addition, from historical experience, the market of altcoins is often driven by short-term popularity, but whether the price can be truly maintained depends on the long-term development ability of the project and the coordination of the overall market environment. Although there are calls for a "altcoin season" in the current market, if there is a lack of new technological breakthroughs, application landing or ecological development support, this wave of market may be more of a game of short-term capital rotation rather than a trend of increase.

另外，從歷史經驗來看，山寨幣的行情往往受到短期人氣的推動，但能否真正維持價格，取決於專案的長期發展能力以及整體市場環境的配合。儘管當前市場有人呼喚“山寨幣季”，但如果缺乏新的技術突破、應用落地或生態發展支撐，這波行情可能更多是一場短期資本輪動的遊戲，而非呈增加趨勢。

Therefore, both institutional and individual investors need to remain vigilant in the face of this round of altcoin market. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to changes in the flow of funds in the market, such as key indicators such as on-chain token transfer data; on the other hand, we also need to guard against the risk of a correction after a short-term increase, especially the capital flow of the leading project parties may become an important indicator of the subsequent market.

因此，面對本輪山寨幣行情，無論是機構投資者或個人投資者都需要保持警惕。一方面，需要關注市場資金流向的變化，例如鏈上代幣轉帳資料等關鍵指標；另一方面，我們也需要警惕短期上漲後的回檔風險，尤其是龍頭專案方的資金流向可能成為後續市場的重要指標。

At present, the "copycat season" is still a game field where opportunities and risks coexist, and investors should remain calm

目前「山寨季」仍是機遇與風險並存的博弈場，投資人應保持冷靜