山寨币季节已经到来？反弹背后原因及能否持续分析

比特币似乎并不是唯一表现良好的货币，资金开始流入主流山寨币。

Bitcoin is not the only one that is performing well, and funds are flowing into mainstream altcoins.

比特币并不是唯一表现良好的货币，资金正在流入主流山寨币。

According to Quantify Crypto data, 185 of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value rose in the past 24 hours, and only 15 fell. The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value rose by more than 8%, with ETH breaking through 3,400 USDT, up 9.7% in 24 hours; SOL breaking through 260 USDT, a record high; Ethereum’s second-layer OP and ARB both rose by more than 15%. On social media, many investors said that the "copycat season" has finally arrived.

根据Quantify Crypto数据，市值排名前200的加密货币中有185种在过去24小时内上涨，只有15种下跌。市值前100名加密货币涨幅超8%，其中ETH突破3400 USDT，24小时涨幅9.7%； SOL突破260 USDT，创历史新高；以太坊第二层OP和ARB涨幅均超过15%。社交媒体上，不少投资者表示“山寨季”终于到来了。

Has the altcoin season arrived? Odaily Planet Daily will explain the reasons for the altcoin price rebound and analyze whether it can continue. (Note: The author separates the memes on the chain from the altcoin team, and the memes listed on the top exchanges are classified as altcoins.)

山寨币季节到来了吗？ Odaily星球日报将解释山寨币价格反弹的原因并分析是否可以持续。 （注：作者将链上的 meme 与山寨币团队分开，顶级交易所上架的 meme 归为山寨币。）

Why are altcoins rising?

为什么山寨币会上涨？

The transaction volume of well-known memes on the chain has decreased, and the community discussion has decreased

链上知名表情包交易量减少，社区讨论减少

Previously, the price of Bitcoin continued to break new highs, while altcoins fell instead of rising, which also led to the market generally not being optimistic about altcoins in this bull market, especially some VC coins that were facing large-scale unlocking.

此前，比特币价格不断突破新高，而山寨币不升反降，这也导致市场普遍不看好本次牛市的山寨币，尤其是一些面临大规模解锁的VC币。

Therefore, the market is looking to launch fairer meme sectors, and most funds are going to the chain for PVP. The mainstream altcoins of the past have a large market value, but their liquidity is not as good as a meme project that has just exploded. For example, the daily trading volume of the top 100 tokens in terms of market value is not even as good as that of the newly popular CHILL GUY.

因此，市场寻求推出更加公平的meme板块，大部分资金都流向链上PVP。过去的主流山寨币都有很大的市值，但流动性却不如刚刚爆发的meme项目。例如，市值排名前100的代币日交易量甚至不如新流行的CHILL GUY。

However, the high intensity of PVP in meme also discourages people, and it is inevitable that funds will return to altcoins, and meme and altcoins begin to rotate funds. The rise of altcoins this time is partly due to the decline in the popularity of memes on the chain, including:

然而meme中高强度的PVP也让人望而却步，资金回归山寨币是必然的，meme和山寨币开始轮动资金。此次山寨币的崛起，部分原因是链上表情包热度下降，包括：

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is about to leave, and altcoins are having a carnival

SEC主席Gary Gensler即将离任，山寨币正在狂欢

Since the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the crypto market has continued to rise, and the market is also looking forward to the next cryptocurrency to go mainstream.

自比特币和以太坊现货ETF获批以来，加密货币市场持续上涨，市场也在期待下一个加密货币成为主流。

Today, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote: "Cboe has submitted applications to the US SEC for four Solana spot ETFs, the issuers are VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital and Bitwise. If the SEC does not reject the above application, the final deadline will be around early August next year."

今天，彭博社高级 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 写道：“Cboe 已向美国 SEC 提交了四只 Solana 现货 ETF 的申请，发行人为 VanEck、21Shares、Canary Capital 和 Bitwise。如果 SEC 不拒绝上述申请，最终截止日期明年八月初左右。”

The application for a cryptocurrency spot ETF requires the issuer to prepare two documents, namely S-1 and 19b-4. This time it is the S-1 document, which represents the document required for the SOL spot ETF to be listed. The documents that really face review difficulties are mostly concentrated in 19b-4. Therefore, the SOL spot ETF is just getting started.

申请加密货币现货ETF需要发行人准备两份文件，即S-1和19b-4。这次是S-1文件，代表SOL现货ETF上市所需的文件。真正面临审核困难的文件大多集中在19b-4。因此，SOL现货ETF才刚刚起步。

However, SEC Chairman Gary announced on the X platform that he would officially resign on January 20. The new SEC Chairman may speed up the review of the SOL spot ETF, and it may not have to be extended to the final deadline like the previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

不过，SEC 主席 Gary 在 X 平台宣布，将于 1 月 20 日正式辞职。新任 SEC 主席可能会加快对 SOL 现货 ETF 的审核，可能不必像之前的比特币那样延长到最终期限和以太坊 ETF。

In addition, Gary's upcoming departure also gave the heavily regulated altcoin projects a respite. Ripple, which has always had a grudge with the US SEC, saw its token XRP rise by nearly 30% in a single day.

此外，Gary即将离职也给了受到严格监管的山寨币项目喘息的机会。一直与美国SEC结怨的Ripple，其代币XRP单日涨幅近30%。

With the support of regulation and SOL spot ETF, it is reasonable for altcoins to rise.

在监管和SOL现货ETF的支撑下，山寨币上涨也在情理之中。

Can altcoins continue to rise?

山寨币还能继续上涨吗？

Whether the rise of altcoins can continue still requires observation and verification from more dimensions.

山寨币的崛起能否持续，仍需要更多维度的观察和验证。

In addition, from historical experience, the market of altcoins is often driven by short-term popularity, but whether the price can be truly maintained depends on the long-term development ability of the project and the coordination of the overall market environment. Although there are calls for a "altcoin season" in the current market, if there is a lack of new technological breakthroughs, application landing or ecological development support, this wave of market may be more of a game of short-term capital rotation rather than a trend of increase.

另外，从历史经验来看，山寨币的行情往往受到短期人气的推动，但能否真正维持价格，取决于项目的长期发展能力以及整体市场环境的配合。尽管当前市场有人呼唤“山寨币季”，但如果缺乏新的技术突破、应用落地或生态发展支撑，这波行情可能更多是一场短期资本轮动的游戏，而非呈增加趋势。

Therefore, both institutional and individual investors need to remain vigilant in the face of this round of altcoin market. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to changes in the flow of funds in the market, such as key indicators such as on-chain token transfer data; on the other hand, we also need to guard against the risk of a correction after a short-term increase, especially the capital flow of the leading project parties may become an important indicator of the subsequent market.

因此，面对本轮山寨币行情，无论是机构投资者还是个人投资者都需要保持警惕。一方面，需要关注市场资金流向的变化，比如链上代币转账数据等关键指标；另一方面，我们也需要警惕短期上涨后的回调风险，尤其是龙头项目方的资金流向可能成为后续市场的重要指标。

At present, the "copycat season" is still a game field where opportunities and risks coexist, and investors should remain calm

目前“山寨季”仍是机遇与风险并存的博弈场，投资者应保持冷静