比特币进入关键阶段，有望获得重大收益

现在，比特币正处于关键时刻，许多分析师预测今年的巨额回报，因为BTC准备再次进入未知领域。

Bitcoin price has been a hot topic lately, and for good reason. After a stellar 2020, many predicted that BTC would continue to surge this year, and so far, it has largely lived up to those expectations.

比特币价格最近是一个热门话题，这是有充分理由的。在2020年出色之后，许多人预测BTC今年将继续激增，到目前为止，它已经达到了这些期望。

But as we approach the final quarter of 2021, some are wondering whether Bitcoin is nearing a cycle top or if the real rally is just beginning. To help answer this question, we turn to on-chain metrics, which provide valuable insights into the health and direction of the Bitcoin market.

但是，随着2021年最后一个季度的接近，有些人想知道比特币是否接近周期顶部，或者真正的集会才刚刚开始。为了帮助回答这个问题，我们转向链指标，这些指标为比特币市场的健康和方向提供了宝贵的见解。

One key metric is realized volatility, which measures the standard deviation of logarithmic returns over a specific time frame. This metric helps us understand how volatile an asset has been recently, which can be crucial in a market like Bitcoin, where large price swings are common.

一个关键指标是实现的波动率，它可以在特定的时间范围内测量对数回报的标准偏差。该指标有助于我们了解最近的资产的波动性，这在像比特币这样的市场中至关重要，而比特币的价格波动很普遍。

According to data from CryptoQuant, BTC’s monthly realized volatility currently stands at 11%. For comparison, during the previous bull market cycles, realized volatility reached peaks of 16% and 14%. This lower volatility could indicate that Bitcoin is still gearing up for its next major move.

根据CryptoQuant的数据，BTC每月实现的波动率目前为11％。为了进行比较，在先前的牛市周期中，实现的波动率达到了16％和14％的峰值。这种较低的波动性可能表明比特币仍在为下一个重大举措做好准备。

Historically, in the final year of the halving cycle, bull markets tend to accelerate aggressively. As we approach the final months of this cycle, Bitcoin's price action and on-chain trends will be closely watched to determine the market's next phase. In the coming weeks, many will be watching the $110K level, which could trigger significant buying if breached.

从历史上看，在减半周期的最后一年，牛市倾向于积极加速。当我们接近本周期的最后几个月时，将密切关注比特币的价格动作和链上趋势，以确定市场的下一阶段。在接下来的几周中，许多人将观看11万美元的水平，如果违反，这可能会引发大量购买。

Meanwhile, long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, with on-chain data showing a persistent flow of Bitcoin leaving exchanges, which reduces the available supply. If history repeats itself, BTC could be on the verge of a parabolic rally, driving the crypto market to new all-time highs.

同时，长期持有人继续积累BTC，链上数据显示了比特币的持续流动，从而减少了可用的供应。如果历史重演，BTC可能处于抛物线集会的边缘，将加密货币市场推向了新的高潮。