比特幣進入關鍵階段，有望獲得重大收益

現在，比特幣正處於關鍵時刻，許多分析師預測今年的巨額回報，因為BTC準備再次進入未知領域。

Bitcoin price has been a hot topic lately, and for good reason. After a stellar 2020, many predicted that BTC would continue to surge this year, and so far, it has largely lived up to those expectations.

比特幣價格最近是一個熱門話題，這是有充分理由的。在2020年出色之後，許多人預測BTC今年將繼續激增，到目前為止，它已經達到了這些期望。

But as we approach the final quarter of 2021, some are wondering whether Bitcoin is nearing a cycle top or if the real rally is just beginning. To help answer this question, we turn to on-chain metrics, which provide valuable insights into the health and direction of the Bitcoin market.

但是，隨著2021年最後一個季度的接近，有些人想知道比特幣是否接近週期頂部，或者真正的集會才剛剛開始。為了幫助回答這個問題，我們轉向鏈指標，這些指標為比特幣市場的健康和方向提供了寶貴的見解。

One key metric is realized volatility, which measures the standard deviation of logarithmic returns over a specific time frame. This metric helps us understand how volatile an asset has been recently, which can be crucial in a market like Bitcoin, where large price swings are common.

一個關鍵指標是實現的波動率，它可以在特定的時間範圍內測量對數回報的標準偏差。該指標有助於我們了解最近的資產的波動性，這在像比特幣這樣的市場中至關重要，而比特幣的價格波動很普遍。

According to data from CryptoQuant, BTC’s monthly realized volatility currently stands at 11%. For comparison, during the previous bull market cycles, realized volatility reached peaks of 16% and 14%. This lower volatility could indicate that Bitcoin is still gearing up for its next major move.

根據CryptoQuant的數據，BTC每月實現的波動率目前為11％。為了進行比較，在先前的牛市週期中，實現的波動率達到了16％和14％的峰值。這種較低的波動性可能表明比特幣仍在為下一個重大舉措做好準備。

Historically, in the final year of the halving cycle, bull markets tend to accelerate aggressively. As we approach the final months of this cycle, Bitcoin's price action and on-chain trends will be closely watched to determine the market's next phase. In the coming weeks, many will be watching the $110K level, which could trigger significant buying if breached.

從歷史上看，在減半週期的最後一年，牛市傾向於積極加速。當我們接近本週期的最後幾個月時，將密切關注比特幣的價格動作和鏈上趨勢，以確定市場的下一階段。在接下來的幾周中，許多人將觀看11萬美元的水平，如果違反，這可能會引發大量購買。

Meanwhile, long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, with on-chain data showing a persistent flow of Bitcoin leaving exchanges, which reduces the available supply. If history repeats itself, BTC could be on the verge of a parabolic rally, driving the crypto market to new all-time highs.

同時，長期持有人繼續積累BTC，鏈上數據顯示了比特幣的持續流動，從而減少了可用的供應。如果歷史重演，BTC可能處於拋物線集會的邊緣，將加密貨幣市場推向了新的高潮。