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随着加密货币努力维持其地位,希夫的分析凸显了一个令人不安的趋势:比特币的表现明显落后于黄金。
Peter Schiff, a well-known financial commentator and Bitcoin skeptic, has issued a stark warning: the cryptocurrency may have entered a bear market.
著名金融评论员、比特币怀疑论者彼得·希夫(Peter Schiff)发出严厉警告:加密货币可能已进入熊市。
With Bitcoin struggling to maintain its footing, Schiff's analysis highlights a troubling trend: the cryptocurrency's performance has significantly lagged behind that of gold.
随着比特币难以站稳脚跟,希夫的分析凸显了一个令人不安的趋势:加密货币的表现明显落后于黄金。
Since its peak nearly three years ago, Bitcoin has seen a drop of approximately 40%, raising questions about its long-term viability as an investment. A Closer Look at Bitcoin's Performance
自近三年前达到顶峰以来,比特币已经下跌了约 40%,引发了人们对其作为投资的长期可行性的质疑。仔细观察比特币的表现
According to Schiff, Bitcoin holders, commonly known as HODLers, might be overlooking the realities of the current market landscape.
希夫表示,比特币持有者(通常称为 HODLers)可能忽视了当前市场格局的现实。
Despite Bitcoin holding above the critical support level of $60,000, Schiff warns that this could be a temporary situation. His perspective is that the persistent difficulties facing Bitcoin are indicative of a broader failure among investors to recognize the shifting dynamics of the market.
尽管比特币保持在 60,000 美元的关键支撑位之上,但 Schiff 警告称,这可能只是暂时的情况。他的观点是,比特币面临的持续困难表明投资者普遍未能认识到市场动态的变化。
Schiff emphasizes that Bitcoin's struggle becomes particularly apparent when compared to gold. Historically viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold has maintained its appeal during times of economic uncertainty, whereas Bitcoin's allure as a store of value has come under scrutiny.
希夫强调,与黄金相比,比特币的困境变得尤为明显。历史上,黄金被视为避险资产,在经济不确定时期仍保持其吸引力,而比特币作为价值储存手段的吸引力却受到密切关注。
This discrepancy is compounded by ongoing global economic challenges that are exerting pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The Economic Landscape
持续的全球经济挑战给包括加密货币在内的风险资产带来压力,加剧了这种差异。经济格局
The current economic climate is marked by inflationary pressures, interest rate fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions. These factors contribute to an atmosphere of uncertainty, affecting investor sentiment and decision-making.
当前的经济环境以通胀压力、利率波动和地缘政治紧张为特征。这些因素造成了不确定的气氛,影响了投资者的情绪和决策。
In this context, Schiff argues that many risk assets, including Bitcoin, may face headwinds that could lead to further declines in value. The Influence of Institutional Investors
在这种背景下,希夫认为,包括比特币在内的许多风险资产可能面临可能导致价值进一步下跌的阻力。机构投资者的影响
Recent data from Glassnode provides a more nuanced view of Bitcoin's recent behavior. It reveals that about 4-5% of all net capital inflows into Bitcoin since January are tied to U.S. spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). The cost basis for these ETFs ranges from $54,900 to $59,100.
Glassnode 的最新数据提供了对比特币近期行为的更细致的看法。报告显示,自 1 月份以来,流入比特币的所有净资本中约有 4-5% 与美国现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 相关。这些 ETF 的成本基础范围为 54,900 美元至 59,100 美元。
This means that many institutional investors are nearing their break-even point, which could incentivize them to sell if Bitcoin's price dips below these levels. This scenario paints a concerning picture for the cryptocurrency.
这意味着许多机构投资者正在接近盈亏平衡点,如果比特币价格跌破这些水平,这可能会激励他们出售。这种情况为加密货币描绘了一幅令人担忧的画面。
If Bitcoin were to drop below $59,000, it might trigger a wave of selling among these institutional investors, further accelerating its decline. Schiff advises those with bullish views on Bitcoin to reassess their positions, especially since the support level of $60,000 has been tested but remains precarious.
如果比特币跌破59,000美元,可能会引发这些机构投资者的抛售潮,进一步加速其下跌。 Schiff 建议那些看好比特币的人重新评估自己的头寸,特别是因为 60,000 美元的支撑位已经受到考验,但仍然不稳定。
Key Price Levels to Monitor
需要监控的关键价格水平
In navigating this uncertain landscape, Schiff underscores the importance of monitoring critical price levels. Two significant thresholds to watch are $59,000 on the downside and $64,000 on the upside. A breach below $59,000 could signal an extended bear market, while a rise above $64,000 may rekindle optimism for a potential recovery.
在应对这种不确定的形势时,希夫强调了监控关键价格水平的重要性。值得关注的两个重要门槛是下行 59,000 美元和上行 64,000 美元。跌破 59,000 美元可能预示着熊市将会延长,而升破 64,000 美元可能会重新点燃对潜在复苏的乐观情绪。
The unpredictability of market trends means that only time will reveal the true strength of Bitcoin. The current situation serves as a reminder that the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and investors must remain vigilant in the face of potential downturns.
市场趋势的不可预测性意味着只有时间才能揭示比特币的真正实力。目前的情况提醒人们,加密货币市场本质上是不稳定的,面对潜在的低迷,投资者必须保持警惕。
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