为什么比特币低于80,000美元以下可能标志着抛售的结束

在过去一周的重大价格损失之后，全球市场投资者Julien Bittel的宏观研究负责人朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）为比特币市场提供了有趣的见解。

Head of Macro Research at Global Market Investor Julien Bittel has provided an interesting insight into the Bitcoin market following a major price loss in the past week. In a bold move, the financial analyst has backed the premier cryptocurrency to soon pull off a rebound linking the recent price fall to broader macroeconomic conditions.

在过去一周的重大价格损失之后，全球市场投资者Julien Bittel的宏观研究负责人朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）为比特币市场提供了有趣的见解。一项大胆的举动，财务分析师支持了总理的加密货币，很快就会实现将最近价格下降与更广泛的宏观经济条件联系起来的反弹。

Why Bitcoin’s Drop Below $80,000 Could Have Marked The End Of The Sell-Off

为什么比特币低于80,000美元以下可能标志着抛售的结束

Over the past week, the BTC market registered a significant bearish price action, with prices falling from over $96,000 to below $80,000. In an X post on February 28, Bittel attributed this price fall to the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 2024, which has drained liquidity from the market, making it harder for speculative assets like Bitcoin to maintain upward momentum.

在过去的一周中，BTC市场进行了重大的看跌价格行动，价格从96,000美元以上下降到低于80,000美元。在2月28日的X帖子中，Bittel将这一价格归因于第四季度2024年财务状况的收紧，该公司已经从市场上耗尽了流动性，这使得像比特币这样的投机资产更难维持向上的势头。

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The world is quickly running out of macroeconomic surprises, and with market liquidity visibly returning, we should start to see a reversal in investor sentiment in March.

全世界迅速消失了宏观经济的惊喜，随着市场流动性明显返回，我们应该在三月份开始看到投资者情绪的逆转。

As the dollar declines rapidly, and oil and Treasury yields follow suit, it becomes clear that financial conditions are rapidly easing.

随着美元迅速下降，石油和国库收益率也随之而来，很明显，财务状况正在迅速缓解。

A video posted by GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR (@global_marketinvestor) on Feb 28, 2024

全球市场投资者（@GloBal_MarketInvestor）于2024年2月28日发布的视频

When market liquidity reduces, economic surprises slow leading to concerns about a potential recession and ultimately inducing market uncertainty and a risk-off behavior. However, Bittel expects these investors’ sentiment to reverse in March making a case for a Bitcoin rebound.

当市场流动性降低时，经济惊喜会引起人们对潜在衰退的担忧，并最终引起市场不确定性和风险行为。但是，比特尔预计这些投资者的情绪将在3月份扭转，为比特币篮板辩护。

The analyst notes that market conditions over the past two weeks have been easing rapidly as indicated by a weakening dollar, decreasing bond yields, and falling oil prices. These macroeconomic developments suggest that liquidity is returning to the financial system signaling a potential rebound in market sentiment.

分析师指出，过去两周的市场状况一直在迅速缓解美元，这是由于美元疲软，债券收益率降低和油价下跌所示。这些宏观经济发展表明，流动性正在返回金融体系，这表明市场情绪可能会反弹。

Notably, with Bitcon’s recent dip below $80,000, Julien Bittel states the effects of tightening liquidity conditions have been fully reflected. And while a potential price fall is still possible, sentiment indicators signal little room for further downside. For example, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently touched 23 representing its most oversold level since August 2023. Such market conditions back the notion of incoming price rebound.

值得注意的是，朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）最近的下跌低于80,000美元，朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）指出，收紧流动性条件的影响已经得到充分反映。尽管仍然有可能下跌的价格下跌，但情感指标表明空间几乎没有偏低。例如，比特币的相对强度指数（RSI）最近触及了23个，代表了其2023年8月以来最高水平。这种市场状况却恢复了不断出现的价格反弹的概念。

The BTC Market: A Contrarian Opportunity?

BTC市场：逆势机会？

In the final remarks of an intriguing analysis, Bittel has urged investors against being too comfortably bearish but rather pushed for a greedy mindset amidst the widespread market fear.

在一项有趣的分析的最后一句话中，贝特尔敦促投资者不要过于舒适的看跌，而是在广泛的市场恐惧中推动贪婪的心态。

Notably, blockchain analytics firm Santiment notes that the “market crowd” tends to go wrong on predictions i.e. when traders are forecasting Bitcoin to go lower, prices go up and vice versa based on historical data. Therefore, the current Bitcoin market may present a unique opportunity for accumulation despite general expectations of a sustained price dip.

值得注意的是，区块链分析公司Santiment指出，“市场人群”在预测中往往会出错，即当交易者预测比特币会下降，价格上涨，反之亦然。因此，尽管普遍期望持续价格下跌，但目前的比特币市场可能会为积累提供独特的机会。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $84,750 following some price gains on Friday amidst a positive US inflation report. With a market cap of $1.68 trillion, the premier cryptocurrency remains the largest digital asset with a staggering market dominance of 60%.

在撰写本文时，比特币在周五的阳性通货膨胀报告中的价格上涨之后以84,750美元的价格交易。总理加密货币仍然具有1.68万亿美元的市值，仍然是最大的数字资产，其惊人的市场优势为60％。