為什麼比特幣低於80,000美元以下可能標誌著拋售的結束

在過去一周的重大價格損失之後，全球市場投資者Julien Bittel的宏觀研究負責人朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）為比特幣市場提供了有趣的見解。

Head of Macro Research at Global Market Investor Julien Bittel has provided an interesting insight into the Bitcoin market following a major price loss in the past week. In a bold move, the financial analyst has backed the premier cryptocurrency to soon pull off a rebound linking the recent price fall to broader macroeconomic conditions.

在過去一周的重大價格損失之後，全球市場投資者Julien Bittel的宏觀研究負責人朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）為比特幣市場提供了有趣的見解。一項大膽的舉動，財務分析師支持了總理的加密貨幣，很快就會實現將最近價格下降與更廣泛的宏觀經濟條件聯繫起來的反彈。

Why Bitcoin’s Drop Below $80,000 Could Have Marked The End Of The Sell-Off

為什麼比特幣低於80,000美元以下可能標誌著拋售的結束

Over the past week, the BTC market registered a significant bearish price action, with prices falling from over $96,000 to below $80,000. In an X post on February 28, Bittel attributed this price fall to the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 2024, which has drained liquidity from the market, making it harder for speculative assets like Bitcoin to maintain upward momentum.

在過去的一周中，BTC市場進行了重大的看跌價格行動，價格從96,000美元以上下降到低於80,000美元。在2月28日的X帖子中，Bittel將這一價格歸因於第四季度2024年財務狀況的收緊，該公司已經從市場上耗盡了流動性，這使得像比特幣這樣的投機資產更難維持向上的勢頭。

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The world is quickly running out of macroeconomic surprises, and with market liquidity visibly returning, we should start to see a reversal in investor sentiment in March.

全世界迅速消失了宏觀經濟的驚喜，隨著市場流動性明顯返回，我們應該在三月份開始看到投資者情緒的逆轉。

As the dollar declines rapidly, and oil and Treasury yields follow suit, it becomes clear that financial conditions are rapidly easing.

隨著美元迅速下降，石油和國庫收益率也隨之而來，很明顯，財務狀況正在迅速緩解。

A video posted by GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR (@global_marketinvestor) on Feb 28, 2024

全球市場投資者（@GloBal_MarketInvestor）於2024年2月28日發布的視頻

When market liquidity reduces, economic surprises slow leading to concerns about a potential recession and ultimately inducing market uncertainty and a risk-off behavior. However, Bittel expects these investors’ sentiment to reverse in March making a case for a Bitcoin rebound.

當市場流動性降低時，經濟驚喜會引起人們對潛在衰退的擔憂，並最終引起市場不確定性和風險行為。但是，比特爾預計這些投資者的情緒將在3月份扭轉，為比特幣籃板辯護。

The analyst notes that market conditions over the past two weeks have been easing rapidly as indicated by a weakening dollar, decreasing bond yields, and falling oil prices. These macroeconomic developments suggest that liquidity is returning to the financial system signaling a potential rebound in market sentiment.

分析師指出，過去兩週的市場狀況一直在迅速緩解美元，這是由於美元疲軟，債券收益率降低和油價下跌所示。這些宏觀經濟發展表明，流動性正在返回金融體系，這表明市場情緒可能會反彈。

Notably, with Bitcon’s recent dip below $80,000, Julien Bittel states the effects of tightening liquidity conditions have been fully reflected. And while a potential price fall is still possible, sentiment indicators signal little room for further downside. For example, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently touched 23 representing its most oversold level since August 2023. Such market conditions back the notion of incoming price rebound.

值得注意的是，朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）最近的下跌低於80,000美元，朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）指出，收緊流動性條件的影響已經得到充分反映。儘管仍然有可能下跌的價格下跌，但情感指標表明空間幾乎沒有偏低。例如，比特幣的相對強度指數（RSI）最近觸及了23個，代表了其2023年8月以來最高水平。這種市場狀況卻恢復了不斷出現的價格反彈的概念。

The BTC Market: A Contrarian Opportunity?

BTC市場：逆勢機會？

In the final remarks of an intriguing analysis, Bittel has urged investors against being too comfortably bearish but rather pushed for a greedy mindset amidst the widespread market fear.

在一項有趣的分析的最後一句話中，貝特爾敦促投資者不要過於舒適的看跌，而是在廣泛的市場恐懼中推動貪婪的心態。

Notably, blockchain analytics firm Santiment notes that the “market crowd” tends to go wrong on predictions i.e. when traders are forecasting Bitcoin to go lower, prices go up and vice versa based on historical data. Therefore, the current Bitcoin market may present a unique opportunity for accumulation despite general expectations of a sustained price dip.

值得注意的是，區塊鏈分析公司Santiment指出，“市場人群”在預測中往往會出錯，即當交易者預測比特幣會下降，價格上漲，反之亦然。因此，儘管普遍期望持續價格下跌，但目前的比特幣市場可能會為積累提供獨特的機會。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $84,750 following some price gains on Friday amidst a positive US inflation report. With a market cap of $1.68 trillion, the premier cryptocurrency remains the largest digital asset with a staggering market dominance of 60%.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣在周五的陽性通貨膨脹報告中的價格上漲之後以84,750美元的價格交易。總理加密貨幣仍然具有1.68萬億美元的市值，仍然是最大的數字資產，其驚人的市場優勢為60％。