随着替代季节发生独特的转变，比特币逐渐远离加密生态系统

比特币最近从 9.9 万美元跌至 9 万美元后，经历了几天的价格波动。目前价格保持在 95,000 美元以上

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a few days of ranging price action following its recent drop from $99K to $90K. The price is now holding above the $95K level, and this area is crucial in determining whether BTC will continue its ascent toward the $100K mark or retrace to find liquidity in lower levels.

比特币 (BTC) 最近从 9.9 万美元跌至 9 万美元，经历了几天的价格波动。目前价格保持在 9.5 万美元以上，这一区域对于决定 BTC 是否会继续上涨至 10 万美元大关或回撤以在较低水平寻找流动性至关重要。

If BTC fails to hold above $95K, a correction could see it test support at $90K or even lower levels.

如果 BTC 未能保持在 9.5 万美元以上，则可能会出现回调，测试 9 万美元甚至更低的支撑位。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared an insightful analysis on X, warning that this alt season won’t be like previous cycles. He describes it as “weird and challenging,” pointing out that while market sentiment remains positive, there isn’t much fresh liquidity to fuel widespread rallies.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 分享了对 X 的深刻分析，警告说这个山寨币季节不会像之前的周期那样。他将其描述为“奇怪且具有挑战性”，并指出虽然市场情绪仍然乐观，但没有太多新的流动性来推动广泛的反弹。

Ju also highlights that BTC seems to be drifting away from the broader crypto ecosystem, with institutions and retail investors increasingly engaging with BTC through paper-based Layer 2 solutions like ETFs and funds.

Ju还强调，比特币似乎正在远离更广泛的加密生态系统，机构和散户投资者越来越多地通过ETF和基金等基于纸质的第二层解决方案来参与比特币。

This shift could make it harder for BTC to maintain its historical correlation with altcoins, suggesting that altcoin rallies may be more fragmented and unpredictable this time around. As Bitcoin faces these unique dynamics, the next few days will be crucial in determining its near-term trajectory.

这种转变可能会使比特币更难维持其与山寨币的历史相关性，这表明这一次山寨币的反弹可能会更加分散和不可预测。由于比特币面临这些独特的动态，未来几天对于确定其近期轨迹至关重要。

Bitcoin Drifts Away From Crypto?

比特币逐渐远离加密货币？

Over the past few years, Bitcoin has ironically evolved into a global asset that is increasingly being adopted by traditional finance. This shift has led BTC to drift away from the crypto ecosystem that originally nurtured its growth. Instead of being an independent digital asset, BTC is now becoming more integrated into the legacy financial system.

具有讽刺意味的是，在过去的几年里，比特币已经发展成为一种全球资产，并越来越多地被传统金融所采用。这种转变导致 BTC 脱离了最初培育其增长的加密生态系统。比特币现在不再是一种独立的数字资产，而是越来越融入传统金融系统。

With vehicles like ETFs, MSTR (MicroStrategy), and other institutional funds, BTC is effectively creating its own paper-based Layer 2 ecosystem. This move into traditional finance has created a disconnect between Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market, making it more difficult for altcoins to follow Bitcoin’s lead as they once did.

借助 ETF、MSTR (MicroStrategy) 和其他机构基金等工具，BTC 正在有效地创建自己的纸质第 2 层生态系统。这种向传统金融领域的进军造成了比特币与加密货币市场其他部分之间的脱节，使得山寨币更难像以前那样追随比特币的脚步。

This dynamic is set to change during this Alt season, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. In a recent analysis, he highlighted that this Alt season won’t follow the familiar patterns of previous cycles. It will be “weird and challenging,” with only a few winners emerging from the market.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，这种动态将在这个 Alt 季节发生变化。在最近的一次分析中，他强调说，这个 Alt 赛季将不会遵循之前周期的熟悉模式。这将是“奇怪且具有挑战性的”，市场上只会出现少数赢家。

Market sentiment remains positive, but a lack of fresh liquidity could stymie widespread growth. While Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance has provided significant support, it has also made it more detached from altcoins, breaking the correlation that once existed between BTC and the broader crypto ecosystem.

市场情绪依然乐观，但缺乏新的流动性可能会阻碍广泛的增长。虽然比特币与传统金融的融合提供了重要支持，但也使其与山寨币更加脱离，打破了比特币与更广泛的加密生态系统之间曾经存在的相关性。

As a result, only a few altcoins are now showing independent trends, driven by new liquidity that could lead to price surges. This shift in dynamics will likely lead to a more fragmented Alt season, where the winners will be few and far between.

因此，在可能导致价格飙升的新流动性的推动下，现在只有少数山寨币表现出独立的趋势。这种动态的转变可能会导致 Alt 赛季更加分散，获胜者将寥寥无几。

What Price Action Tells Us

价格行为告诉我们什么

Bitcoin’s price is showing a calm and measured behavior after weeks of aggressive rallies that consistently set new all-time highs. Currently trading at $94,850, the market seems to be in a phase of indecision, with traders uncertain about the short-term direction of BTC.

经过数周的大幅上涨并不断创下历史新高后，比特币的价格表现出平静和谨慎的行为。目前交易价格为 94,850 美元，市场似乎处于犹豫不决的阶段，交易者对 BTC 的短期方向不确定。

Despite this, the price is holding firm above critical levels, and the next few days will be crucial in determining whether BTC can maintain its momentum. If BTC can stay above the $92,000 mark, the path to a retest of the previous all-time high just below $100,000 becomes more likely. This could signal the continuation of the bullish trend, as buyers remain active in this key demand zone.

尽管如此，价格仍坚守在关键水平之上，未来几天对于决定比特币能否维持其势头至关重要。如果 BTC 能够保持在 92,000 美元大关之上，那么重新测试略低于 100,000 美元的历史高点的可能性就更大。这可能预示着看涨趋势的持续，因为买家在这个关键需求区域仍然活跃。

However, a failure to hold the $92K level might shift sentiment, increasing the likelihood of a correction or a consolidation period. For now, all eyes are on whether BTC can solidify support above $92K and push towards its next price targets, as the market remains in a critical moment of balance. The coming days will likely reveal whether this pause is a temporary consolidation or a precursor to further bullish price action.

然而，未能守住 92,000 美元的水平可能会改变市场情绪，增加回调或盘整期的可能性。目前，随着市场仍处于平衡的关键时刻，所有人的目光都集中在 BTC 能否巩固 9.2 万美元上方的支撑并推动其下一个价格目标。未来几天可能会揭示这种暂停是暂时的盘整还是进一步看涨价格走势的前兆。

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from Trading

精选图片来自 Dall-E，图表来自 Trading