隨著替代季節發生獨特的轉變，比特幣逐漸遠離加密生態系統

比特幣最近從 9.9 萬美元跌至 9 萬美元後，經歷了幾天的價格波動。目前價格維持在 95,000 美元以上

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a few days of ranging price action following its recent drop from $99K to $90K. The price is now holding above the $95K level, and this area is crucial in determining whether BTC will continue its ascent toward the $100K mark or retrace to find liquidity in lower levels.

比特幣 (BTC) 最近從 9.9 萬美元跌至 9 萬美元，經歷了幾天的價格波動。目前價格保持在 9.5 萬美元以上，這一區域對於決定 BTC 是否會繼續上漲至 10 萬美元大關或回撤以在較低水平尋找流動性至關重要。

If BTC fails to hold above $95K, a correction could see it test support at $90K or even lower levels.

如果 BTC 未能保持在 9.5 萬美元以上，則可能會出現回調，測試 9 萬美元甚至更低的支撐位。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared an insightful analysis on X, warning that this alt season won’t be like previous cycles. He describes it as “weird and challenging,” pointing out that while market sentiment remains positive, there isn’t much fresh liquidity to fuel widespread rallies.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 分享了對 X 的深刻分析，警告這個山寨幣季節不會像之前的周期那樣。他將其描述為“奇怪且具有挑戰性”，並指出雖然市場情緒仍然樂觀，但沒有太多新的流動性來推動廣泛的反彈。

Ju also highlights that BTC seems to be drifting away from the broader crypto ecosystem, with institutions and retail investors increasingly engaging with BTC through paper-based Layer 2 solutions like ETFs and funds.

Ju也強調，比特幣似乎正在遠離更廣泛的加密生態系統，機構和散戶投資者越來越多地透過ETF和基金等基於紙質的第二層解決方案來參與比特幣。

This shift could make it harder for BTC to maintain its historical correlation with altcoins, suggesting that altcoin rallies may be more fragmented and unpredictable this time around. As Bitcoin faces these unique dynamics, the next few days will be crucial in determining its near-term trajectory.

這種轉變可能會使比特幣更難維持與山寨幣的歷史相關性，這表明這次山寨幣的反彈可能會更加分散和不可預測。由於比特幣面臨這些獨特的動態，未來幾天對於確定其近期軌跡至關重要。

Bitcoin Drifts Away From Crypto?

比特幣逐漸遠離加密貨幣？

Over the past few years, Bitcoin has ironically evolved into a global asset that is increasingly being adopted by traditional finance. This shift has led BTC to drift away from the crypto ecosystem that originally nurtured its growth. Instead of being an independent digital asset, BTC is now becoming more integrated into the legacy financial system.

諷刺的是，在過去的幾年裡，比特幣已經發展成為一種全球資產，並且越來越多地被傳統金融所採用。這種轉變導致 BTC 脫離了最初培育其成長的加密生態系統。比特幣現在不再是獨立的數位資產，而是越來越融入傳統金融體系。

With vehicles like ETFs, MSTR (MicroStrategy), and other institutional funds, BTC is effectively creating its own paper-based Layer 2 ecosystem. This move into traditional finance has created a disconnect between Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market, making it more difficult for altcoins to follow Bitcoin’s lead as they once did.

借助 ETF、MSTR (MicroStrategy) 和其他機構基金等工具，BTC 正在有效地創建自己的紙本第 2 層生態系統。這種向傳統金融領域的進軍造成了比特幣與加密貨幣市場其他部分之間的脫節，使得山寨幣更難像以前那樣追隨比特幣的腳步。

This dynamic is set to change during this Alt season, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. In a recent analysis, he highlighted that this Alt season won’t follow the familiar patterns of previous cycles. It will be “weird and challenging,” with only a few winners emerging from the market.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 表示，這種動態將在這個 Alt 季節發生變化。在最近的一次分析中，他強調說，這個 Alt 賽季將不會遵循先前週期的熟悉模式。這將是“奇怪且具有挑戰性的”，市場上只會出現少數贏家。

Market sentiment remains positive, but a lack of fresh liquidity could stymie widespread growth. While Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance has provided significant support, it has also made it more detached from altcoins, breaking the correlation that once existed between BTC and the broader crypto ecosystem.

市場情緒依然樂觀，但缺乏新的流動性可能會阻礙廣泛的成長。雖然比特幣與傳統金融的整合提供了重要支持，但也使其與山寨幣更加脫離，打破了比特幣與更廣泛的加密生態系統之間曾經存在的相關性。

As a result, only a few altcoins are now showing independent trends, driven by new liquidity that could lead to price surges. This shift in dynamics will likely lead to a more fragmented Alt season, where the winners will be few and far between.

因此，在可能導致價格飆升的新流動性的推動下，現在只有少數山寨幣表現出獨立的趨勢。這種動態的轉變可能會導致 Alt 賽季更加分散，獲勝者將寥寥無幾。

What Price Action Tells Us

價格行為告訴我們什麼

Bitcoin’s price is showing a calm and measured behavior after weeks of aggressive rallies that consistently set new all-time highs. Currently trading at $94,850, the market seems to be in a phase of indecision, with traders uncertain about the short-term direction of BTC.

經過數週的大幅上漲並不斷創下歷史新高後，比特幣的價格表現出平靜和謹慎的行為。目前交易價格為 94,850 美元，市場似乎處於猶豫不決的階段，交易者對 BTC 的短期方向不確定。

Despite this, the price is holding firm above critical levels, and the next few days will be crucial in determining whether BTC can maintain its momentum. If BTC can stay above the $92,000 mark, the path to a retest of the previous all-time high just below $100,000 becomes more likely. This could signal the continuation of the bullish trend, as buyers remain active in this key demand zone.

儘管如此，價格仍堅守在關鍵水平之上，未來幾天對於決定比特幣能否維持其勢頭至關重要。如果 BTC 能夠保持在 92,000 美元大關之上，那麼重新測試略低於 100,000 美元的歷史高點的可能性就更大。這可能預示著看漲趨勢的持續，因為買家在這個關鍵需求區域仍然活躍。

However, a failure to hold the $92K level might shift sentiment, increasing the likelihood of a correction or a consolidation period. For now, all eyes are on whether BTC can solidify support above $92K and push towards its next price targets, as the market remains in a critical moment of balance. The coming days will likely reveal whether this pause is a temporary consolidation or a precursor to further bullish price action.

然而，未能守住 92,000 美元的水平可能會改變市場情緒，增加回調或盤整期的可能性。目前，隨著市場仍處於平衡的關鍵時刻，所有人的目光都集中在 BTC 能否鞏固 9.2 萬美元上方的支撐並推動其下一個價格目標。未來幾天可能會揭示這種暫停是暫時的盤整還是進一步看漲價格走勢的前兆。

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from Trading

精選圖片來自 Dall-E，圖表來自 Trading