比特币的下跌趋势预示着未来将面临更多痛苦，情绪和链上数据暗示

过去三周，比特币的加权情绪一直为负面，同时价格从 73,750 美元下跌 10% 至 66,572 美元。链上指标表明可能会进一步下跌，包括自 3 月 8 日以来接受者买卖比率低于零线以及 NVT Golden Cross 最近发出的卖出信号。

Bitcoin's Downward Trajectory: Sentiment and On-Chain Indicators Signal Further Decline

比特币的下行轨迹：情绪和链上指标预示着进一步下跌

Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, has been facing relentless bearish pressure in recent weeks. Its weighted sentiment, a gauge of market sentiment, has remained negative for the past three consecutive weeks, casting a pall over the asset's prospects. This bearish sentiment, which took hold on March 14th, has coincided with BTC's price tumbling from its all-time high of $73,750.

全球领先的加密货币比特币（BTC）最近几周一直面临持续的看跌压力。衡量市场情绪的加权情绪在过去连续三周仍然为负，给该资产的前景蒙上了阴影。这种看跌情绪在 3 月 14 日盛行，恰逢 BTC 价格从 73,750 美元的历史高点暴跌。

Historical data reveals a notable pattern: BTC's price often deviates from crowd expectations. When market participants are overly optimistic and anticipate a sustained rally, BTC tends to correct downward. Conversely, when sentiment is pessimistic and the market expects further decline, BTC has been known to initiate an uptrend. This pattern has been evident even in recent times.

历史数据揭示了一个显着的模式：比特币的价格经常偏离大众的预期。当市场参与者过于乐观并预期持续上涨时，比特币往往会向下修正。相反，当情绪悲观且市场预期进一步下跌时，比特币就会启动上涨趋势。即使在最近，这种模式也很明显。

On April 4th, BTC briefly surged above $69,000 before retracing to the $66,500 zone. With new resistance established at $69,000, on-chain data suggests the possibility of a further decline in the short term.

4 月 4 日，BTC 短暂飙升至 69,000 美元上方，然后回落至 66,500 美元区域。新阻力位为 69,000 美元，链上数据表明短期内可能进一步下跌。

Firstly, BTC's 30-day taker buy-sell ratio, which measures the ratio between buy volume and sell volume in the futures market, has been below 1 since March 8th. This indicates a preponderance of sell volume, suggesting that more traders are seeking to unload their BTC holdings than acquire them. As long as sentiment remains bearish, this trend is likely to persist, exerting downward pressure on BTC's price.

首先，自3月8日以来，BTC的30天吃单者买卖比率（衡量期货市场买入量与卖出量之间的比率）一直低于1。这表明卖出量占主导地位，表明更多的交易者寻求抛售比特币，而不是购买比特币。只要市场情绪仍然看跌，这种趋势就可能持续下去，从而对比特币的价格造成下行压力。

Furthermore, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Tugbachain recently reported that BTC's NVT Golden Cross, which compares the 30-day moving average of the coin's network value to transactions ratio with its 10-day moving average, flashed a sell signal at the end of March. This indicator generates a long signal when it returns a value less than 1.6, and a short signal when it exceeds 2.2. According to Tugbachain, the NVT value reaching "3.17" levels in late March, when BTC's price was around $71,000, served as an indication of a local peak.

此外，化名的 CryptoQuant 分析师 Tugbachain 最近报道称，比特币的 NVT Golden Cross（将比特币网络价值与交易比率的 30 天移动平均线与其 10 天移动平均线进行比较）在 3 月底闪出了卖出信号。该指标在返回值小于 1.6 时生成多头信号，在超过 2.2 时生成空头信号。根据 Tugbachain 的数据，NVT 值在 3 月下旬达到“3.17”水平，当时 BTC 的价格约为 71,000 美元，这是局部峰值的迹象。

In conclusion, BTC's negative weighted sentiment, combined with bearish on-chain indicators, points to the possibility of further price decline in the short term. However, it is crucial to note that the market is prone to unexpected fluctuations and reversals. Investors should exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and manage their risk exposure accordingly.

总之，BTC 的负权重情绪，加上看跌的链上指标，表明短期内价格可能进一步下跌。然而，值得注意的是，市场很容易出现意想不到的波动和逆转。投资者应谨慎行事，充分研究并相应管理风险敞口。