比特幣的下跌趨勢預示著未來將面臨更多痛苦，情緒和鏈上數據暗示

過去三週，比特幣的加權情緒一直為負面，同時價格從 73,750 美元下跌 10% 至 66,572 美元。鏈上指標顯示可能會進一步下跌，包括自 3 月 8 日以來受助者買賣比率低於零線以及 NVT Golden Cross 最近發出的賣出訊號。

Bitcoin's Downward Trajectory: Sentiment and On-Chain Indicators Signal Further Decline

比特幣的下行軌跡：情緒和鏈上指標預示著進一步下跌

Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, has been facing relentless bearish pressure in recent weeks. Its weighted sentiment, a gauge of market sentiment, has remained negative for the past three consecutive weeks, casting a pall over the asset's prospects. This bearish sentiment, which took hold on March 14th, has coincided with BTC's price tumbling from its all-time high of $73,750.

全球領先的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）最近幾週一直面臨持續的看跌壓力。衡量市場情緒的加權情緒在過去連續三週仍然為負，給該資產的前景蒙上了陰影。這種看跌情緒在 3 月 14 日盛行，恰逢 BTC 價格從 73,750 美元的歷史高點暴跌。

Historical data reveals a notable pattern: BTC's price often deviates from crowd expectations. When market participants are overly optimistic and anticipate a sustained rally, BTC tends to correct downward. Conversely, when sentiment is pessimistic and the market expects further decline, BTC has been known to initiate an uptrend. This pattern has been evident even in recent times.

歷史數據揭示了一個顯著的模式：比特幣的價格經常偏離大眾的預期。當市場參與者過於樂觀並預期持續上漲時，比特幣往往會向下修正。相反，當情緒悲觀且市場預期進一步下跌時，比特幣就會啟動上漲趨勢。即使在最近，這種模式也很明顯。

On April 4th, BTC briefly surged above $69,000 before retracing to the $66,500 zone. With new resistance established at $69,000, on-chain data suggests the possibility of a further decline in the short term.

4 月 4 日，BTC 短暫飆升至 69,000 美元上方，然後回落至 66,500 美元區域。新阻力位為 69,000 美元，鏈上數據表明短期內可能進一步下跌。

Firstly, BTC's 30-day taker buy-sell ratio, which measures the ratio between buy volume and sell volume in the futures market, has been below 1 since March 8th. This indicates a preponderance of sell volume, suggesting that more traders are seeking to unload their BTC holdings than acquire them. As long as sentiment remains bearish, this trend is likely to persist, exerting downward pressure on BTC's price.

首先，自3月8日以來，BTC的30天吃單者買賣比率（衡量期貨市場買進量與賣出量之間的比率）一直低於1。這表明賣出量占主導地位，表明更多的交易者尋求拋售比特幣，而不是購買比特幣。只要市場情緒仍然看跌，這種趨勢就可能持續下去，對比特幣的價格造成下行壓力。

Furthermore, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Tugbachain recently reported that BTC's NVT Golden Cross, which compares the 30-day moving average of the coin's network value to transactions ratio with its 10-day moving average, flashed a sell signal at the end of March. This indicator generates a long signal when it returns a value less than 1.6, and a short signal when it exceeds 2.2. According to Tugbachain, the NVT value reaching "3.17" levels in late March, when BTC's price was around $71,000, served as an indication of a local peak.

此外，化名的CryptoQuant 分析師Tugbachain 最近報道稱，比特幣的NVT Golden Cross（將比特幣網路價值與交易比率的30 天移動平均線與其10 天移動平均線進行比較）在3 月底閃出了賣出訊號.此指標在傳回值小於 1.6 時產生多頭訊號，在超過 2.2 時產生空頭訊號。根據 Tugbachain 的數據，NVT 值在 3 月下旬達到「3.17」水平，當時 BTC 的價格約為 71,000 美元，這是局部峰值的跡象。

In conclusion, BTC's negative weighted sentiment, combined with bearish on-chain indicators, points to the possibility of further price decline in the short term. However, it is crucial to note that the market is prone to unexpected fluctuations and reversals. Investors should exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and manage their risk exposure accordingly.

總之，BTC 的負權重情緒，加上看跌的鏈上指標，顯示短期內價格可能會進一步下跌。然而，值得注意的是，市場很容易出現意想不到的波動和逆轉。投資者應謹慎行事，充分研究並相應管理風險敞口。