比特币会在2025年再次加倍吗？这是专家所说的

rth于2023年1月11日更新

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price predictions for 2025 are through the roof, with some expecting the cryptocurrency to double in value and hit $200,000. But is that really realistic? Let's take a closer look at the factors that could drive Bitcoin's price higher and whether or not it's likely to reach $200,000 this year.

2025年的比特币（加密：BTC）的价格预测通过屋顶，有些人期望加密货币价值翻倍，达到200,000美元。但这真的很现实吗？让我们仔细研究一下可能使比特币价格更高的因素以及今年是否可能达到200,000美元。

Several investment and financial services firms are predicting that Bitcoin will hit the $200,000 mark in 2025. For example, Standard Chartered thinks that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, $300,000 by the end of 2026, and $500,000 by the end of 2028.

几家投资和金融服务公司预测，比特币将在2025年达到200,000美元的成绩。例如，《标准特许》认为，到2025年底，比特币将达到200,000美元，到2026年底将达到300,000美元，到2028年底，比特币将达到200,000美元。

Standard Chartered's central investment thesis is that investors will continue to pile into the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). First-time crypto investors will continue to embrace the ETF investment product as the easiest way to get exposure to Bitcoin. At the same time, large institutional investors will continue to ratchet up their portfolio allocations to Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered的中央投资论文是，投资者将继续累积到新的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETFS）中。首次加密投资者将继续将ETF投资产品作为接触比特币的最简单方法。同时，大型机构投资者将继续将其投资组合分配给比特币。

Right now, institutional investors are allocating about 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. But that number could easily double. According to BlackRock, the optimal allocation to Bitcoin is 2%. And other investment firms, such as Fidelity, now think that an allocation as much as 5% might be appropriate for some investors.

目前，机构投资者将其投资组合的约1％分配给比特币。但是这个数字很容易加倍。根据贝莱德（Blackrock）的说法，对比特币的最佳分配为2％。现在，其他投资公司（例如Fidelity）现在认为，分配多达5％可能适合某些投资者。

Investment firm Bernstein also thinks Bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025. The investment thesis here also builds in the narrative around the spot Bitcoin ETFs. But it also layers in what the firm calls the "Infinity Age" of crypto. This is basically a belief that, under the pro-crypto Trump administration, there will be a broad flowering of all things crypto. Bitcoin will become a bigger and bigger part of the global financial system, entering the investment mainstream.

投资公司伯恩斯坦还认为，比特币将在2025年达到200,000美元。此处的投资论文也建立在现货比特币ETF周围的叙述中。但这也层面是公司所谓的加密“无限时代”。这基本上是一种信念，即在Pro-Crypto Trump政府下，将会在所有事物中都有广泛的开花。比特币将成为全球金融体系越来越大的部分，进入投资主流。

Amid all that pro-crypto exuberance, Bitcoin has nowhere to go but up, right? After all, if the U.S. Government does decide to move ahead with a strategic Bitcoin reserve, that could unlock an unprecedented amount of Bitcoin buying. The current plan is to buy 200,000 bitcoins per year, over a five-year time period, for a total of 1 million bitcoins.

在所有这些亲克赖普托的兴旺中，比特币无处可去，但对吗？毕竟，如果美国政府确实决定继续进行战略性比特币储备，那可能会解锁前所未有的比特币购买。当前的计划是在五年内每年购买200,000比特币，总计100万比特币。

But what if I told you that, even if Cathie Wood's Bitcoin price target is correct, it's still possible that Bitcoin doesn't hit $200,000 this year?

但是，如果我告诉您，即使Cathie Wood的比特币价格目标正确，今年比特币仍然没有达到200,000美元，该怎么办？

Here's the thing: Cathie Wood's base-case scenario for Bitcoin is that it grows at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% and hits $1.5 million by 2030. But even in her best-case scenario, she's only assuming a CAGR of 58%.

事情是：Cathie Wood的比特币的基本场景是，它以40％的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长，到2030年达到150万美元。但是，即使在她的最佳情况下，她也只会假设出现的复合年增长率58％。

Let's assume a base price of $100,000 for Bitcoin at the start of 2025. Even if it grows at a steady 58% clip, year in and year out, Bitcoin will only hit $158,000 by the end of this year, $250,000 by the end of 2026, $400,000 by the end of 2027, $625,000 by the end of 2028, and $1 million by the end of 2029. Finally, it will hit $1.5 million by the end of 2030.

让我们假设比特币在2025年初的基本价格为100,000美元。即使它以稳定的58％剪辑，年份又一年的稳定剪辑增长，到今年年底，比特币也只能达到158,000美元，到2026年底，比特币将达到25万美元，到2027年底到40万美元，到2028年底为625,000美元，到2029年底到100万美元。最后，到2030年底，它将达到150万美元。

So, while it might sound counterintuitive, it's quite possible that Bitcoin could be on a path to $1.5 million, but still not crack $200,000 this year. In fact, Cathie Wood's base-case scenario calls for Bitcoin to grow at a CAGR of 40%. So it's entirely within the realm of possibility that Bitcoin might not even get to $150,000 this year.

因此，虽然听起来可能违反直觉，但比特币很有可能会达到150万美元的道路，但今年仍然不会赚200,000美元。实际上，凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的基本场景要求比特币以40％的复合年增长率生长。因此，今年比特币甚至可能无法达到15万美元。

It really depends on how much new money flows into Bitcoin this year. According to the "money multiplier effect" model used by some crypto analysts, every $1 in new money flowing into Bitcoin can lead to a market cap gain of anywhere from $2.50 to $ six.73. Based on current assumptions, Bitcoin could hit a price of anywhere from $150,000 to $250,000 in 2025.

这实际上取决于今年有多少新资金流入比特币。根据某些加密分析师使用的“货币乘数效应”模型，每一笔新的款项流入比特币的新资金可能会导致市值从2.50美元到6.73美元不等。根据当前的假设，比特币在2025年的价格可能从150,000美元到250,000美元不等。

Obviously, the more money that flows into Bitcoin, and the stronger the money multiplier effect, the higher the price of Bitcoin might go. So you should be rooting for corporations, institutional investors, and governments to ratchet up their buying of Bitcoin and for members of the

显然，流入比特币的钱越多，货币乘数效应就越强大，比特币的价格越高。因此，您应该为公司，机构投资者和政府扎根，以加强他们对比特币的购买和成员