比特幣會在2025年再次加倍嗎？這是專家所說的

rth於2023年1月11日更新

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price predictions for 2025 are through the roof, with some expecting the cryptocurrency to double in value and hit $200,000. But is that really realistic? Let's take a closer look at the factors that could drive Bitcoin's price higher and whether or not it's likely to reach $200,000 this year.

2025年的比特幣（加密：BTC）的價格預測通過屋頂，有些人期望加密貨幣價值翻倍，達到200,000美元。但這真的很現實嗎？讓我們仔細研究一下可能使比特幣價格更高的因素以及今年是否可能達到200,000美元。

Several investment and financial services firms are predicting that Bitcoin will hit the $200,000 mark in 2025. For example, Standard Chartered thinks that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, $300,000 by the end of 2026, and $500,000 by the end of 2028.

幾家投資和金融服務公司預測，比特幣將在2025年達到200,000美元的成績。例如，《標準特許》認為，到2025年底，比特幣將達到200,000美元，到2026年底將達到300,000美元，到2028年底，比特幣將達到200,000美元。

Standard Chartered's central investment thesis is that investors will continue to pile into the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). First-time crypto investors will continue to embrace the ETF investment product as the easiest way to get exposure to Bitcoin. At the same time, large institutional investors will continue to ratchet up their portfolio allocations to Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered的中央投資論文是，投資者將繼續累積到新的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFS）中。首次加密投資者將繼續將ETF投資產品作為接觸比特幣的最簡單方法。同時，大型機構投資者將繼續將其投資組合分配給比特幣。

Right now, institutional investors are allocating about 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. But that number could easily double. According to BlackRock, the optimal allocation to Bitcoin is 2%. And other investment firms, such as Fidelity, now think that an allocation as much as 5% might be appropriate for some investors.

目前，機構投資者將其投資組合的約1％分配給比特幣。但是這個數字很容易加倍。根據貝萊德（Blackrock）的說法，對比特幣的最佳分配為2％。現在，其他投資公司（例如Fidelity）現在認為，分配多達5％可能適合某些投資者。

Investment firm Bernstein also thinks Bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025. The investment thesis here also builds in the narrative around the spot Bitcoin ETFs. But it also layers in what the firm calls the "Infinity Age" of crypto. This is basically a belief that, under the pro-crypto Trump administration, there will be a broad flowering of all things crypto. Bitcoin will become a bigger and bigger part of the global financial system, entering the investment mainstream.

投資公司伯恩斯坦還認為，比特幣將在2025年達到200,000美元。此處的投資論文也建立在現貨比特幣ETF周圍的敘述中。但這也層面是公司所謂的加密“無限時代”。這基本上是一種信念，即在Pro-Crypto Trump政府下，將會在所有事物中都有廣泛的開花。比特幣將成為全球金融體系越來越大的部分，進入投資主流。

Amid all that pro-crypto exuberance, Bitcoin has nowhere to go but up, right? After all, if the U.S. Government does decide to move ahead with a strategic Bitcoin reserve, that could unlock an unprecedented amount of Bitcoin buying. The current plan is to buy 200,000 bitcoins per year, over a five-year time period, for a total of 1 million bitcoins.

在所有這些親克賴普託的興旺中，比特幣無處可去，但對嗎？畢竟，如果美國政府確實決定繼續進行戰略性比特幣儲備，那可能會解鎖前所未有的比特幣購買。當前的計劃是在五年內每年購買200,000比特幣，總計100萬比特幣。

But what if I told you that, even if Cathie Wood's Bitcoin price target is correct, it's still possible that Bitcoin doesn't hit $200,000 this year?

但是，如果我告訴您，即使Cathie Wood的比特幣價格目標正確，今年比特幣仍然沒有達到200,000美元，該怎麼辦？

Here's the thing: Cathie Wood's base-case scenario for Bitcoin is that it grows at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% and hits $1.5 million by 2030. But even in her best-case scenario, she's only assuming a CAGR of 58%.

事情是：Cathie Wood的比特幣的基本場景是，它以40％的複合年增長率（CAGR）增長，到2030年達到150萬美元。但是，即使在她的最佳情況下，她也只會假設出現的複合年增長率58％。

Let's assume a base price of $100,000 for Bitcoin at the start of 2025. Even if it grows at a steady 58% clip, year in and year out, Bitcoin will only hit $158,000 by the end of this year, $250,000 by the end of 2026, $400,000 by the end of 2027, $625,000 by the end of 2028, and $1 million by the end of 2029. Finally, it will hit $1.5 million by the end of 2030.

讓我們假設比特幣在2025年初的基本價格為100,000美元。即使它以穩定的58％剪輯，年份又一年的穩定剪輯增長，到今年年底，比特幣也只能達到158,000美元，到2026年底，比特幣將達到25萬美元，到2027年底到40萬美元，到2028年底為625,000美元，到2029年底到100萬美元。最後，到2030年底，它將達到150萬美元。

So, while it might sound counterintuitive, it's quite possible that Bitcoin could be on a path to $1.5 million, but still not crack $200,000 this year. In fact, Cathie Wood's base-case scenario calls for Bitcoin to grow at a CAGR of 40%. So it's entirely within the realm of possibility that Bitcoin might not even get to $150,000 this year.

因此，雖然聽起來可能違反直覺，但比特幣很有可能會達到150萬美元的道路，但今年仍然不會賺200,000美元。實際上，凱茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的基本場景要求比特幣以40％的複合年增長率生長。因此，今年比特幣甚至可能無法達到15萬美元。

It really depends on how much new money flows into Bitcoin this year. According to the "money multiplier effect" model used by some crypto analysts, every $1 in new money flowing into Bitcoin can lead to a market cap gain of anywhere from $2.50 to $ six.73. Based on current assumptions, Bitcoin could hit a price of anywhere from $150,000 to $250,000 in 2025.

這實際上取決於今年有多少新資金流入比特幣。根據某些加密分析師使用的“貨幣乘數效應”模型，每一筆新的款項流入比特幣的新資金可能會導致市值從2.50美元到6.73美元不等。根據當前的假設，比特幣在2025年的價格可能從150,000美元到250,000美元不等。

Obviously, the more money that flows into Bitcoin, and the stronger the money multiplier effect, the higher the price of Bitcoin might go. So you should be rooting for corporations, institutional investors, and governments to ratchet up their buying of Bitcoin and for members of the

顯然，流入比特幣的錢越多，貨幣乘數效應就越強大，比特幣的價格越高。因此，您應該為公司，機構投資者和政府紮根，以加強他們對比特幣的購買和成員