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比特币通常被视为加密货币的“王者”,但我们如何知道它对市场的真正控制力有多大?
Bitcoin is often touted as the ‘king’ of cryptocurrencies, but how can we know how much control it really has over the market? The answer lies in an indicator called Bitcoin ‘dominance’, a fundamental measure to understand the role of this cryptocurrency compared to others. In this article, we will explore how Bitcoin dominance works, why it is important, and how it can help traders and investors make strategic decisions to invest in cryptocurrencies. We will delve particularly into the concept of Bitcoin’s “true” dominance, and how this can be a useful indicator for making investment and risk management decisions.
比特币经常被誉为加密货币“之王”,但我们如何知道它对市场到底有多少控制权?答案在于一个名为比特币“主导地位”的指标,这是了解这种加密货币相对于其他加密货币的作用的基本衡量标准。在本文中,我们将探讨比特币的主导地位如何运作,为什么它很重要,以及它如何帮助交易者和投资者做出投资加密货币的战略决策。我们将特别深入探讨比特币“真正”主导地位的概念,以及它如何成为做出投资和风险管理决策的有用指标。
What is Bitcoin Dominance?
什么是比特币主导地位?
The “dominance” of Bitcoin is a measure that indicates the percentage of Bitcoin’s market capitalization (market cap) compared to the total capitalization of all existing cryptocurrencies. In other words, it is Bitcoin’s market share compared to the total cryptocurrency market.
比特币的“主导地位”是衡量比特币市值(市值)相对于所有现有加密货币总市值的百分比的指标。换句话说,它是比特币与整个加密货币市场相比的市场份额。
The “dominance” of Bitcoin is calculated using the following formula:
比特币的“主导地位”使用以下公式计算:
Bitcoin dominance = {(Market Cap BTC) / (Market Cap of all cryptocurrencies)} * 100
比特币主导地位 = {(BTC 市值)/(所有加密货币的市值)} * 100
To better visualize this concept, one can calculate the market cap of Bitcoin using the circulating supply and the price. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) amounts to approximately 57,050 dollars. In 2024, the circulating supply of BTC will reach 19.6 million units. Multiplying these two values gives approximately 1,118 billion dollars of market cap, which represents the current valuation of BTC.
为了更好地形象化这一概念,我们可以使用流通供应量和价格来计算比特币的市值。截至撰写本文时,比特币 (BTC) 的价格约为 57,050 美元。 2024年,BTC的流通量将达到1960万枚。将这两个值相乘得出约 11,180 亿美元的市值,这代表了 BTC 当前的估值。
To calculate the Bitcoin dominance ratio, you must then divide this market cap by the overall market cap of criptovalute, which currently amounts to 1.95 trillion dollars. Consequently, the current “dominance” of Bitcoin is around 57%. This percentage can vary slightly depending on the sources and methodologies used to calculate it.
要计算比特币的主导比例,您必须将该市值除以 criptovalute 的整体市值(目前为 1.95 万亿美元)。因此,比特币目前的“主导地位”约为 57%。该百分比可能会略有不同,具体取决于计算它的来源和方法。
How to calculate the “true” Dominance of Bitcoin and why it is important for traders and investors
如何计算比特币的“真实”主导地位以及为什么它对交易者和投资者很重要
Many analysts believe that the standard dominance of Bitcoin does not accurately reflect its leadership position, because it also includes cryptocurrencies that are not direct competitors, such as stablecoins. For this reason, the concept of ‘true’ dominance of Bitcoin has developed.
许多分析师认为,比特币的标准主导地位并不能准确反映其领导地位,因为它还包括非直接竞争对手的加密货币,例如稳定币。因此,比特币“真正”主导地位的概念已经形成。
For example, including stablecoins, which are not competitors of Bitcoin but rather tools for trading and liquidity, could distort the evaluation. These are designed to maintain a stable value tied to a fiat currency (for example, the US dollar), and allow investors to invest in crypto without having to endure huge market volatility risks. USDT and USDC were the first generation of stablecoins, occupying an increasingly significant part of the market and thus leading to the creation of a brand new ratio called the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which is calculated by dividing the market cap of Bitcoin by the total market cap of the stablecoins.
例如,包括稳定币,它不是比特币的竞争对手,而是交易和流动性的工具,可能会扭曲评估。这些旨在维持与法定货币(例如美元)挂钩的稳定价值,并允许投资者投资加密货币而不必承受巨大的市场波动风险。 USDT 和 USDC 是第一代稳定币,占据着越来越重要的市场份额,从而催生了一个全新的比率,称为稳定币供应比率(SSR),其计算方法是用比特币的市值除以稳定币的总市值。
Furthermore, the true dominance should focus only on assets that share Bitcoin’s main objective: being a decentralized currency and a store of value. The exclusion of some cryptocurrencies, such as platform tokens or utility tokens, would therefore be desirable.
此外,真正的主导地位应该只关注与比特币具有共同主要目标的资产:成为去中心化货币和价值储存手段。因此,排除某些加密货币(例如平台代币或实用代币)是可取的。
In this way, a much more “truthful” index of Bitcoin’s position within the sector would be obtained, but it would also become more difficult to calculate, as there is currently no simple way to keep track of all the coins to exclude. Most platforms indeed only show the basic dominance ratio, in addition to the main total metrics: for example, you can access the Bitcoin dominance chart on TradingView with the symbol BTC.D, as well as the total cryptocurrency market capitalization with the symbol TOTAL.
通过这种方式,将获得比特币在该领域内的地位的更“真实”的指数,但它也将变得更难以计算,因为目前没有简单的方法来跟踪所有要排除的代币。除了主要的总指标之外,大多数平台确实只显示基本的主导比例:例如,您可以使用符号 BTC.D 访问 TradingView 上的比特币主导地位图表,以及使用符号 TOTAL 访问加密货币总市值。
To simplify the calculation, therefore, one could exclude from the total capitalization only the main stablecoins (USDT and USDC), which currently represent about 154 billion dollars, thus obtaining the following chart for the true dominance of Bitcoin:
因此,为了简化计算,可以将主要的稳定币(USDT和USDC)从总市值中剔除,目前这两个稳定币的市值约为1540亿美元,从而得出比特币真正的主导地位如下图:
True Dominance of BTC = {(Market Cap BTC) / (TOTAL – USDC – USDT)} * 100
BTC 的真实主导地位 = {(BTC 市值) / (总计 – USDC – USDT)} * 100
Finally, in order to represent the trend of the Altcoin market compared to that of BTC, the inverse ratio to the true dominance of Bitcoin can be plotted on the chart. In this case, however, it is preferred to exclude from the total capitalization not only stablecoins but also BTC and ETH (Ethereum), using the symbol TOTAL3 from TradingView. Ethereum, in fact, although it is an Altcoin, has now carved out such a market share that it distinguishes itself from the others as the main alternative to BTC.
最后,为了代表山寨币市场相对于 BTC 的趋势,可以在图表上绘制与比特币真实主导地位的反比。然而,在这种情况下,最好使用 TradingView 中的符号 TOTAL3 从总资本中排除稳定币以及 BTC 和 ETH(以太坊)。事实上,以太坊虽然是一种山寨币,但现在已经占据了一定的市场份额,使其成为比特币的主要替代品,与其他货币区分开来。
This gives the true ratio between the market cap of Altcoins and that of Bitcoin, widely used to monitor when Altcoins grow more than BTC (Bitcoin dominance decreases), indicating the probable start of the so-called “Altseason”, like the one seen at the beginning of 2021:
这给出了山寨币市值与比特币市值之间的真实比率,广泛用于监控山寨币何时增长超过 BTC(比特币主导地位下降),表明所谓的“山寨币季节”可能开始,就像在2021 年初:
1 / (True Dominance of BTC) = {(TOTAL3 – USDC – USDT) / (Market Cap
1 / (BTC 的真实主导地位) = {(TOTAL3 – USDC – USDT) / (市值
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