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比特幣通常被視為加密貨幣的“王者”,但我們如何知道它對市場的真正控制力有多大?
Bitcoin is often touted as the ‘king’ of cryptocurrencies, but how can we know how much control it really has over the market? The answer lies in an indicator called Bitcoin ‘dominance’, a fundamental measure to understand the role of this cryptocurrency compared to others. In this article, we will explore how Bitcoin dominance works, why it is important, and how it can help traders and investors make strategic decisions to invest in cryptocurrencies. We will delve particularly into the concept of Bitcoin’s “true” dominance, and how this can be a useful indicator for making investment and risk management decisions.
比特幣經常被譽為加密貨幣“之王”,但我們如何知道它對市場到底有多少控制權?答案在於一個名為比特幣「主導地位」的指標,這是了解這種加密貨幣相對於其他加密貨幣的作用的基本衡量標準。在本文中,我們將探討比特幣的主導地位如何運作,為什麼它很重要,以及它如何幫助交易者和投資者做出投資加密貨幣的策略決策。我們將特別深入探討比特幣「真正」主導地位的概念,以及它如何成為做出投資和風險管理決策的有用指標。
What is Bitcoin Dominance?
什麼是比特幣主導地位?
The “dominance” of Bitcoin is a measure that indicates the percentage of Bitcoin’s market capitalization (market cap) compared to the total capitalization of all existing cryptocurrencies. In other words, it is Bitcoin’s market share compared to the total cryptocurrency market.
比特幣的「主導地位」是衡量比特幣市值(市值)相對於所有現有加密貨幣總市值的百分比的指標。換句話說,它是比特幣與整個加密貨幣市場相比的市場份額。
The “dominance” of Bitcoin is calculated using the following formula:
比特幣的「主導地位」使用以下公式計算:
Bitcoin dominance = {(Market Cap BTC) / (Market Cap of all cryptocurrencies)} * 100
比特幣主導地位 = {(BTC 市值)/(所有加密貨幣的市值)} * 100
To better visualize this concept, one can calculate the market cap of Bitcoin using the circulating supply and the price. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) amounts to approximately 57,050 dollars. In 2024, the circulating supply of BTC will reach 19.6 million units. Multiplying these two values gives approximately 1,118 billion dollars of market cap, which represents the current valuation of BTC.
為了更好地形象化這個概念,我們可以使用流通供應量和價格來計算比特幣的市值。截至撰寫本文時,比特幣 (BTC) 的價格約為 57,050 美元。 2024年,BTC的流通量將達到1,960萬枚。將這兩個值相乘得出約 11,180 億美元的市值,這代表了 BTC 目前的估值。
To calculate the Bitcoin dominance ratio, you must then divide this market cap by the overall market cap of criptovalute, which currently amounts to 1.95 trillion dollars. Consequently, the current “dominance” of Bitcoin is around 57%. This percentage can vary slightly depending on the sources and methodologies used to calculate it.
要計算比特幣的主導比例,您必須將該市值除以 criptovalute 的整體市值(目前為 1.95 兆美元)。因此,比特幣目前的「主導地位」約為 57%。該百分比可能會略有不同,具體取決於計算它的來源和方法。
How to calculate the “true” Dominance of Bitcoin and why it is important for traders and investors
如何計算比特幣的「真實」主導地位以及為什麼它對交易者和投資者很重要
Many analysts believe that the standard dominance of Bitcoin does not accurately reflect its leadership position, because it also includes cryptocurrencies that are not direct competitors, such as stablecoins. For this reason, the concept of ‘true’ dominance of Bitcoin has developed.
許多分析師認為,比特幣的標準主導地位並不能準確反映其領導地位,因為它還包括非直接競爭對手的加密貨幣,例如穩定幣。因此,比特幣「真正」主導地位的概念已經形成。
For example, including stablecoins, which are not competitors of Bitcoin but rather tools for trading and liquidity, could distort the evaluation. These are designed to maintain a stable value tied to a fiat currency (for example, the US dollar), and allow investors to invest in crypto without having to endure huge market volatility risks. USDT and USDC were the first generation of stablecoins, occupying an increasingly significant part of the market and thus leading to the creation of a brand new ratio called the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which is calculated by dividing the market cap of Bitcoin by the total market cap of the stablecoins.
例如,包括穩定幣,它不是比特幣的競爭對手,而是交易和流動性的工具,可能會扭曲評估。這些旨在維持與法定貨幣(例如美元)掛鉤的穩定價值,並允許投資者投資加密貨幣而不必承受巨大的市場波動風險。 USDT 和 USDC 是第一代穩定幣,佔據著越來越重要的市場份額,從而催生了一個全新的比率,稱為穩定幣供應比率(SSR),其計算方法是用比特幣的市值除以穩定幣的總市值。
Furthermore, the true dominance should focus only on assets that share Bitcoin’s main objective: being a decentralized currency and a store of value. The exclusion of some cryptocurrencies, such as platform tokens or utility tokens, would therefore be desirable.
此外,真正的主導地位應該只關注與比特幣具有共同主要目標的資產:成為去中心化貨幣和價值儲存手段。因此,排除某些加密貨幣(例如平台代幣或實用代幣)是可取的。
In this way, a much more “truthful” index of Bitcoin’s position within the sector would be obtained, but it would also become more difficult to calculate, as there is currently no simple way to keep track of all the coins to exclude. Most platforms indeed only show the basic dominance ratio, in addition to the main total metrics: for example, you can access the Bitcoin dominance chart on TradingView with the symbol BTC.D, as well as the total cryptocurrency market capitalization with the symbol TOTAL.
透過這種方式,將獲得比特幣在該領域內的地位的更「真實」的指數,但它也將變得更難以計算,因為目前沒有簡單的方法來追蹤所有要排除的代幣。除了主要的總指標之外,大多數平台確實只顯示基本的主導比例:例如,您可以使用符號 BTC.D 存取 TradingView 上的比特幣主導地位圖表,以及使用符號 TOTAL 存取加密貨幣總市值。
To simplify the calculation, therefore, one could exclude from the total capitalization only the main stablecoins (USDT and USDC), which currently represent about 154 billion dollars, thus obtaining the following chart for the true dominance of Bitcoin:
因此,為了簡化計算,可以將主要的穩定幣(USDT和USDC)從總市值中剔除,目前這兩個穩定幣的市值約為1540億美元,從而得出比特幣真正的主導地位如下圖:
True Dominance of BTC = {(Market Cap BTC) / (TOTAL – USDC – USDT)} * 100
BTC 的真實主導地位 = {(BTC 市值) / (總計 – USDC – USDT)} * 100
Finally, in order to represent the trend of the Altcoin market compared to that of BTC, the inverse ratio to the true dominance of Bitcoin can be plotted on the chart. In this case, however, it is preferred to exclude from the total capitalization not only stablecoins but also BTC and ETH (Ethereum), using the symbol TOTAL3 from TradingView. Ethereum, in fact, although it is an Altcoin, has now carved out such a market share that it distinguishes itself from the others as the main alternative to BTC.
最後,為了代表山寨幣市場相對於 BTC 的趨勢,可以在圖表上繪製與比特幣真實主導地位的反比。然而,在這種情況下,最好使用 TradingView 中的符號 TOTAL3 從總資本中排除穩定幣以及 BTC 和 ETH(以太坊)。事實上,以太坊雖然是一種山寨幣,但現在已經佔據了一定的市場份額,使其成為比特幣的主要替代品,與其他貨幣區分開來。
This gives the true ratio between the market cap of Altcoins and that of Bitcoin, widely used to monitor when Altcoins grow more than BTC (Bitcoin dominance decreases), indicating the probable start of the so-called “Altseason”, like the one seen at the beginning of 2021:
這給出了山寨幣市值與比特幣市值之間的真實比率,廣泛用於監控山寨幣何時增長超過 BTC(比特幣主導地位下降),表明所謂的“山寨幣季節”可能開始,就像在2021 年初:
1 / (True Dominance of BTC) = {(TOTAL3 – USDC – USDT) / (Market Cap
1 / (BTC 的真實主導地位) = {(TOTAL3 – USDC – USDT) / (市值
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