比特币的主导地位在减半预期中飙升

比特币一直是社交媒体讨论的焦点，因为交易者猜测在减半后通过潜在的长期调整持有比特币的好处。与经历大幅回调的山寨币板块不同，比特币因其预期减半而保持关注，减半将使年通胀率从1.73%降至0.85%。尽管担心清算，但比特币仍然是焦点，分析师强调由于减半而带来有利的供需技术面。

Bitcoin Dominance Soars Amidst Halving Anticipation

比特币的主导地位在减半预期中飙升

Amidst the ongoing social media buzz surrounding Bitcoin, traders are speculating on the potential benefits of holding the cryptocurrency through a protracted market correction following the upcoming halving event. Despite persistent fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) leading to liquidations, attention remains firmly focused on Bitcoin and fiat currencies. In contrast, the altcoin sector, encompassing artificial intelligence (AI), gaming, decentralized finance (DeFi), and meme coins, has experienced a significant retracement, further redirecting focus to Bitcoin.

在围绕比特币的社交媒体热议中，交易者正在猜测在即将到来的减半事件之后通过长期市场调整持有加密货币的潜在好处。尽管持续的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD）导致清算，但人们的注意力仍然集中在比特币和法定货币上。相比之下，包括人工智能（AI）、游戏、去中心化金融（DeFi）和模因币在内的山寨币行业经历了大幅回调，进一步将焦点转向比特币。

Halving Dynamics: A Unique Precedent

减半动态：独特的先例

The upcoming halving event is unique in that the price of Bitcoin has increased in the lead-up to the event, which is projected to occur on April 19 or 20. Following the halving, the potential balance sheet of each Bitcoin miner will be reduced by 50%. Additionally, the halving is anticipated to decrease the coin's annual inflation rate from 1.73% to 0.85%, due to the reduction in new block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. At the current price, this translates to approximately $11 billion of new annual supply being removed from the market.

即将到来的减半事件的独特之处在于，比特币的价格在该事件发生之前有所上涨，预计该事件发生在 4 月 19 日或 20 日。减半后，每个比特币矿工的潜在资产负债表将减少50%。此外，由于新区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少至 3.125 BTC，预计减半将使代币的年通胀率从 1.73% 降低至 0.85%。按照目前的价格计算，这意味着每年大约有 110 亿美元的新增供应从市场上消失。

Historical Trends: Halving's Positive Impact

历史趋势：减半的积极影响

Historically, halving events have been beneficial for Bitcoin's price in the long term. The following table illustrates the impact of previous BTC halvings on price:

从历史上看，减半事件从长远来看对比特币的价格有利。下表说明了历次BTC减半对价格的影响：

(Source: Bitwise)

减半年份 价格变化%（1个月后） 价格变化%（1年后）2012+9%+8,839%2016-10%+285%2020+6%+548%（来源：Bitwise）

Economic Context: Federal Reserve and Bitcoin's Outlook

经济背景：美联储和比特币的前景

Despite indications of a robust economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with plans to cut rates this year, as short-term interest rates remain above policymakers' estimates of "neutral." However, Grayscale Research presents a contrasting view, highlighting the favorable supply/demand technicals resulting from the halving, which could support further increases in Bitcoin's price this year.

尽管有迹象表明经济强劲，但预计美联储今年将继续实施降息计划，因为短期利率仍高于政策制定者的“中性”预期。然而，灰度研究提出了相反的观点，强调减半带来的有利的供需技术面，这可能支持今年比特币价格的进一步上涨。

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiments

技术分析和市场情绪

Technical indicators from IntoTheBlock suggest that Bitcoin is hovering above a critical demand zone. Close to 1 million addresses have acquired over 530k BTC tokens at an average price of $64.3K. This price threshold could serve as a significant demand zone, providing substantial support for the coin's value.

IntoTheBlock 的技术指标表明，比特币徘徊在关键需求区域之上。近 100 万个地址以平均价格 6.43 万美元购买了超过 53 万个 BTC 代币。这个价格阈值可以作为一个重要的需求区，为代币的价值提供实质性支持。

However, not all analyses are universally positive. There are lingering concerns that this support level may ultimately break down. Market experts indicate that the next major demand zone will be near the $56k mark, suggesting the price may continue to decline.

然而，并非所有分析都是普遍积极的。人们一直担心这一支撑位最终可能会被打破。市场专家表示，下一个主要需求区域将接近 56,000 美元大关，这表明价格可能会继续下跌。

Conclusion

结论

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event has generated significant excitement and speculation among traders and investors. While the potential benefits of holding through a protracted correction are being debated, the historical impact of halving events suggests a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. However, it remains important to consider both positive and negative market sentiments and carefully evaluate technical indicators before making investment decisions. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions and their potential impact on the broader economy will also be closely monitored as they may influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

即将到来的比特币减半事件在交易者和投资者中引起了极大的兴奋和猜测。尽管在长期调整中持有比特币的潜在好处仍在争论中，但减半事件的历史影响表明比特币的长期前景乐观。然而，在做出投资决策之前，考虑积极和消极的市场情绪并仔细评估技术指标仍然很重要。美联储的货币政策行动及其对更广泛经济的潜在影响也将受到密切监控，因为它们可能会影响比特币的价格轨迹。