比特幣的主導地位在減半預期中飆升

比特幣一直是社群媒體討論的焦點，因為交易者猜測在減半後透過潛在的長期調整持有比特幣的好處。與經歷大幅回檔的山寨幣板塊不同，比特幣因其預期減半而保持關注，減半將使年通膨率從1.73%降至0.85%。儘管擔心清算，但比特幣仍然是焦點，分析師強調因減半而帶來有利的供需技術面。

Bitcoin Dominance Soars Amidst Halving Anticipation

比特幣的主導地位在減半預期中飆升

Amidst the ongoing social media buzz surrounding Bitcoin, traders are speculating on the potential benefits of holding the cryptocurrency through a protracted market correction following the upcoming halving event. Despite persistent fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) leading to liquidations, attention remains firmly focused on Bitcoin and fiat currencies. In contrast, the altcoin sector, encompassing artificial intelligence (AI), gaming, decentralized finance (DeFi), and meme coins, has experienced a significant retracement, further redirecting focus to Bitcoin.

在圍繞比特幣的社群媒體熱議中，交易者正在猜測在即將到來的減半事件之後透過長期市場調整持有加密貨幣的潛在好處。儘管持續的恐懼、不確定性和懷疑（FUD）導致清算，但人們的注意力仍然集中在比特幣和法定貨幣上。相較之下，包括人工智慧（AI）、遊戲、去中心化金融（DeFi）和迷因幣在內的山寨幣產業經歷了大幅回調，進一步將焦點轉向比特幣。

Halving Dynamics: A Unique Precedent

減半動態：獨特的先例

The upcoming halving event is unique in that the price of Bitcoin has increased in the lead-up to the event, which is projected to occur on April 19 or 20. Following the halving, the potential balance sheet of each Bitcoin miner will be reduced by 50%. Additionally, the halving is anticipated to decrease the coin's annual inflation rate from 1.73% to 0.85%, due to the reduction in new block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. At the current price, this translates to approximately $11 billion of new annual supply being removed from the market.

即將到來的減半事件的獨特之處在於，比特幣的價格在該事件發生之前有所上漲，預計該事件發生在4 月19 日或20 日。負債表將減少50%。此外，由於新區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少至 3.125 BTC，預計減半將使代幣的年通膨率從 1.73% 降至 0.85%。以目前的價格計算，這意味著每年約有 110 億美元的新增供應從市場上消失。

Historical Trends: Halving's Positive Impact

歷史趨勢：減半的正面影響

Historically, halving events have been beneficial for Bitcoin's price in the long term. The following table illustrates the impact of previous BTC halvings on price:

從歷史上看，減半事件從長遠來看對比特幣的價格有利。下表說明了歷次BTC減半對價格的影響：

(Source: Bitwise)

減半年份 價格變動%（1個月後） 價格變動%（1年後）2012+9%+8,839%2016-10%+285%2020+6%+548%（資料來源：Bitwise）

Economic Context: Federal Reserve and Bitcoin's Outlook

經濟背景：聯準會和比特幣的前景

Despite indications of a robust economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with plans to cut rates this year, as short-term interest rates remain above policymakers' estimates of "neutral." However, Grayscale Research presents a contrasting view, highlighting the favorable supply/demand technicals resulting from the halving, which could support further increases in Bitcoin's price this year.

儘管有跡象表明經濟強勁，但預計聯準會今年將繼續實施降息計劃，因為短期利率仍高於政策制定者的「中性」預期。然而，灰度研究提出了相反的觀點，強調減半帶來的有利的供需技術面，這可能支持今年比特幣價格的進一步上漲。

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiments

技術分析與市場情緒

Technical indicators from IntoTheBlock suggest that Bitcoin is hovering above a critical demand zone. Close to 1 million addresses have acquired over 530k BTC tokens at an average price of $64.3K. This price threshold could serve as a significant demand zone, providing substantial support for the coin's value.

IntoTheBlock 的技術指標表明，比特幣徘徊在關鍵需求區域之上。近 100 萬個地址以平均價格 6.43 萬美元購買了超過 53 萬個 BTC 代幣。這個價格閾值可以作為一個重要的需求區，為代幣的價值提供實質支持。

However, not all analyses are universally positive. There are lingering concerns that this support level may ultimately break down. Market experts indicate that the next major demand zone will be near the $56k mark, suggesting the price may continue to decline.

然而，並非所有分析都是普遍正面的。人們一直擔心這支撐位最終可能會被打破。市場專家表示，下一個主要需求區域將接近 56,000 美元大關，這表明​​價格可能會繼續下跌。

Conclusion

結論

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event has generated significant excitement and speculation among traders and investors. While the potential benefits of holding through a protracted correction are being debated, the historical impact of halving events suggests a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. However, it remains important to consider both positive and negative market sentiments and carefully evaluate technical indicators before making investment decisions. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions and their potential impact on the broader economy will also be closely monitored as they may influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

即將到來的比特幣減半事件在交易者和投資者中引起了極大的興奮和猜測。儘管在長期調整中持有比特幣的潛在好處仍在爭論中，但減半事件的歷史影響表明比特幣的長期前景樂觀。然而，在做出投資決策之前，考慮積極和消極的市場情緒並仔細評估技術指標仍然很重要。聯準會的貨幣政策行動及其對更廣泛經濟的潛在影響也將受到密切監控，因為它們可能會影響比特幣的價格軌跡。