随着美国总统选举临近，比特币的主导地位上升，可能会削弱人们对山寨币季节的希望

随着美国总统大选的临近，比特币在加密货币市场的主导地位正在上升。这可能会削弱人们对山寨币季节的希望。

As the US Presidential Election draws near, Bitcoin’s dominance over the cryptocurrency market is rising. This potentially dampens hopes for an altcoin season.

随着美国总统大选的临近，比特币在加密货币市场的主导地位正在上升。这可能会削弱人们对山寨币季节的希望。

Bitcoin’s dominance, measured by BTC.D, has climbed to its highest level since 2021. This surge coincides with significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a relatively stagnant performance of many altcoins.

以 BTC.D 衡量的比特币主导地位已攀升至 2021 年以来的最高水平。这种飙升恰逢大量资本流入比特币 ETF 以及许多山​​寨币的表现相对停滞。

Bitcoin For the Win

比特币是为了胜利

Bitcoin dominance measures the coin’s market capitalization relative to the total market capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies. As of this writing, it sits at 59.77, its highest level since April 2021.

比特币的主导地位衡量的是该货币相对于所有其他加密货币总市值的市值。截至撰写本文时，该指数为 59.77，为 2021 年 4 月以来的最高水平。

When BTC.D climbs, Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is increasing relative to altcoins. BeInCrypto’s assessment of its key momentum indicators confirms the strengthening bullish bias toward the leading coin and the likelihood of extended dominance.

当 BTC.D 攀升时，比特币在加密货币总市值中的份额相对于山寨币正在增加。 BeInCrypto 对其关键动量指标的评估证实了对领先代币的看涨偏见的加强以及扩大主导地位的可能性。

For example, readings from the BTC.D’s moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) show its MACD (blue) resting above its signal line (orange) as of this writing.

例如，BTC.D 的移动平均收敛/发散 (MACD) 读数显示，截至撰写本文时，其 MACD（蓝色）位于信号线（橙色）之上。

This setup suggests that Bitcoin is currently seeing increasing strength within the crypto market, outpacing altcoins in terms of market cap share. It indicates that the current market conditions are less conducive for an altcoin season, with Bitcoin likely to outperform many of these assets in the near term.

这种设置表明，比特币目前在加密货币市场中的实力不断增强，在市值份额方面超过了山寨币。这表明当前的市场状况不利于山寨币季节，比特币在短期内可能会跑赢许多此类资产。

Demand for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged recently, highlighting strong interest in the leading cryptocurrency. In a recent report, digital asset research firm 10X Research indicated that rising BTC ETF demand could drive Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 by January 2025.

最近，对比特币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求激增，凸显了人们对这种领先加密货币的浓厚兴趣。数字资产研究公司 10X Research 在最近的一份报告中表示，BTC ETF 需求的增长可能会在 2025 年 1 月推动比特币价格达到 10 万美元。

“Bitcoin spot ETFs purchased $4.1 billion in October alone — the highest volume since March 2024 — with buy momentum showing no signs of slowing as all ETF buyers remain profitable. Last night, spot ETFs acquired an additional $830 million in Bitcoin, bringing the 5-day total to $2.1 billion. With ETF demand going parabolic, Bitcoin is set to follow suit. If this trend holds, our quant signal also projects a potential rally to $100,000 by the end of January 2025,” the research firm wrote.

“仅 10 月份，比特币现货 ETF 就购买了 41 亿美元——这是自 2024 年 3 月以来的最高成交量——购买势头没有放缓的迹象，因为所有 ETF 买家都保持盈利。昨晚，现货 ETF 额外买入了 8.3 亿美元的比特币，使 5 天的总额达到 21 亿美元。随着 ETF 需求呈抛物线增长，比特币也将效仿。如果这种趋势持续下去，我们的量化信号还预计到 2025 年 1 月底可能会上涨至 10 万美元，”该研究公司写道。

TOTAL2 Consolidates Within a Range

TOTAL2 在一定范围内盘整

With capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, individual and institutional investors are more likely to prioritize BTC investments over less-established altcoins. As a result, less capital flows into the altcoin market reducing their price momentum and trading volumes.

随着资本流入比特币 ETF，个人和机构投资者更有可能优先考虑 BTC 投资，而不是不太成熟的山寨币。因此，流入山寨币市场的资本减少，从而降低了其价格动力和交易量。

This has played out as reflected by TOTAL2’s (the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin) sideways movements since early August. While BTC.D has rallied, TOTAL2 has consolidated within the $967 billion and $856 billion price range.

TOTAL2（除比特币外的所有加密货币的总市值）自 8 月初以来的横盘走势就反映了这一点。虽然 BTC.D 有所上涨，但 TOTAL2 已在 9,670 亿美元和 8,560 亿美元的价格区间内盘整。

This consolidation indicates that altcoin traders have been uncertain about the next direction prices will take. This has led to decreased volatility and trading volume, further delaying the altcoin season.

这种整合表明山寨币交易者一直不确定价格的下一个方向。这导致波动性和交易量下降，进一步推迟了山寨币季节。

Moreover, the altcoin season commences when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a three-month period. Recent data from Blockchain Center reveals that only 29% of these top altcoins have surpassed Bitcoin’s performance in the past 90 days — well below the 75% threshold required to declare an altcoin season officially.

此外，当前 50 名山寨币中至少有 75% 在三个月内表现优于比特币时，山寨币季节就开始了。区块链中心的最新数据显示，在过去 90 天内，这些顶级山寨币中只有 29% 的表现超过了比特币，远低于正式宣布山寨币季节所需的 75% 门槛。