隨著美國總統選舉臨近，比特幣的主導地位上升，可能會削弱人們對山寨幣季節的希望

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，比特幣在加密貨幣市場的主導地位正在上升。這可能會削弱人們對山寨幣季節的希望。

As the US Presidential Election draws near, Bitcoin’s dominance over the cryptocurrency market is rising. This potentially dampens hopes for an altcoin season.

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，比特幣在加密貨幣市場的主導地位正在上升。這可能會削弱人們對山寨幣季節的希望。

Bitcoin’s dominance, measured by BTC.D, has climbed to its highest level since 2021. This surge coincides with significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a relatively stagnant performance of many altcoins.

以 BTC.D 衡量的比特幣主導地位已攀升至 2021 年以來的最高水平。 這種飆升恰逢大量資本流入比特幣 ETF 以及許多山寨幣的表現相對停滯。

Bitcoin For the Win

比特幣是為了勝利

Bitcoin dominance measures the coin’s market capitalization relative to the total market capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies. As of this writing, it sits at 59.77, its highest level since April 2021.

比特幣的主導地位衡量的是貨幣相對於所有其他加密貨幣總市值的市值。截至撰寫本文時，該指數為 59.77，為 2021 年 4 月以來的最高水準。

When BTC.D climbs, Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is increasing relative to altcoins. BeInCrypto’s assessment of its key momentum indicators confirms the strengthening bullish bias toward the leading coin and the likelihood of extended dominance.

當 BTC.D 攀升時，比特幣在加密貨幣總市值中的份額相對於山寨幣正在增加。 BeInCrypto 對其關鍵動量指標的評估證實了對領先代幣的看漲偏見的加強以及擴大主導地位的可能性。

For example, readings from the BTC.D’s moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) show its MACD (blue) resting above its signal line (orange) as of this writing.

例如，BTC.D 的移動平均收斂/發散 (MACD) 讀數顯示，截至撰寫本文時，其 MACD（藍色）位於訊號線（橙色）上方。

This setup suggests that Bitcoin is currently seeing increasing strength within the crypto market, outpacing altcoins in terms of market cap share. It indicates that the current market conditions are less conducive for an altcoin season, with Bitcoin likely to outperform many of these assets in the near term.

這種設定表明，比特幣目前在加密貨幣市場中的實力不斷增強，在市值份額方面超過了山寨幣。這表明當前的市場狀況不利於山寨幣季節，比特幣在短期內可能會跑贏許多此類資產。

Demand for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged recently, highlighting strong interest in the leading cryptocurrency. In a recent report, digital asset research firm 10X Research indicated that rising BTC ETF demand could drive Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 by January 2025.

最近，對比特幣現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求激增，凸顯了人們對這種領先加密貨幣的濃厚興趣。數位資產研究公司 10X Research 在最近的報告中表示，BTC ETF 需求的成長可能會在 2025 年 1 月推動比特幣價格達到 10 萬美元。

“Bitcoin spot ETFs purchased $4.1 billion in October alone — the highest volume since March 2024 — with buy momentum showing no signs of slowing as all ETF buyers remain profitable. Last night, spot ETFs acquired an additional $830 million in Bitcoin, bringing the 5-day total to $2.1 billion. With ETF demand going parabolic, Bitcoin is set to follow suit. If this trend holds, our quant signal also projects a potential rally to $100,000 by the end of January 2025,” the research firm wrote.

「光是 10 月份，比特幣現貨 ETF 就購買了 41 億美元——這是自 2024 年 3 月以來的最高成交量——購買勢頭沒有放緩的跡象，因為所有 ETF 買家都保持盈利。昨晚，現貨 ETF 額外買入了 8.3 億美元的比特幣，使 5 天的總額達到 21 億美元。隨著 ETF 需求呈現拋物線成長，比特幣也將跟進。如果這一趨勢持續下去，我們的量化訊號還預計到 2025 年 1 月底可能會上漲至 10 萬美元。

TOTAL2 Consolidates Within a Range

TOTAL2 在一定範圍內盤整

With capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, individual and institutional investors are more likely to prioritize BTC investments over less-established altcoins. As a result, less capital flows into the altcoin market reducing their price momentum and trading volumes.

隨著資本流入比特幣 ETF，個人和機構投資者更有可能優先考慮 BTC 投資，而不是不太成熟的山寨幣。因此，流入山寨幣市場的資本減少，從而降低了其價格動力和交易量。

This has played out as reflected by TOTAL2’s (the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin) sideways movements since early August. While BTC.D has rallied, TOTAL2 has consolidated within the $967 billion and $856 billion price range.

TOTAL2（除比特幣外的所有加密貨幣的總市值）自 8 月初以來的橫盤走勢就反映了這一點。雖然 BTC.D 有所上漲，但 TOTAL2 已在 9,670 億美元和 8,560 億美元的價格區間內盤整。

This consolidation indicates that altcoin traders have been uncertain about the next direction prices will take. This has led to decreased volatility and trading volume, further delaying the altcoin season.

這種整合表明山寨幣交易者一直不確定價格的下一個方向。這導致波動性和交易量下降，進一步推遲了山寨幣季節。

Moreover, the altcoin season commences when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a three-month period. Recent data from Blockchain Center reveals that only 29% of these top altcoins have surpassed Bitcoin’s performance in the past 90 days — well below the 75% threshold required to declare an altcoin season officially.

此外，目前 50 名山寨幣中至少有 75% 在三個月內表現優於比特幣時，山寨幣季節就開始了。區塊鏈中心的最新數據顯示，在過去 90 天內，這些頂級山寨幣中只有 29% 的表現超過了比特幣，遠低於正式宣布山寨幣季節所需的 75% 門檻。