比特币从未跌破老鲸鱼的实际价格

链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的创始人透露了一个比特币指标，该指标在过去 15 年来一直保持其价格。

The founder of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has highlighted a Bitcoin metric that has held for 15 years.

链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的创始人强调了一个已经持续 15 年的比特币指标。

Bitcoin Price Has Never Dipped Below Old Whales’ Realized Price

比特币价格从未低于老鲸鱼的实际价格

In a recent post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju discussed the Bitcoin Realized Price of old whales.

在 X 最近的一篇文章中，CryptoQuant 创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 讨论了老鲸鱼的比特币实现价格。

The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that essentially tells us about the average cost basis of the investors or addresses on the BTC network.

“实际价格”是一个链上指标，本质上告诉我们 BTC 网络上投资者或地址的平均成本基础。

When the asset’s spot price is trading above this indicator, it means the average holder can be assumed to be net positive in terms of profit. On the other hand, the BTC value being below the metric would imply the prevalence of loss in the market.

当资产的现货价格高于该指标时，就意味着普通持有者的利润可以被认为是净正值。另一方面，比特币价值低于该指标将意味着市场普遍存在亏损。

In the context of the current topic, we’re interested in the Realized Price of a specific segment of the sector: the old whales, which are also called long-term holder whales.

在当前主题的背景下，我们感兴趣的是该行业特定部分的已实现价格：老鲸鱼，也称为长期持有鲸鱼。

The long-term holders (LTHs) are the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins for over 155 days. As such, the LTH whales would be the large hands that have kept their coins不动 for long enough to fall into this category. To be more specific, these are the LTHs with at least 1,000 BTC in their wallets.

长期持有者（LTH）是持有比特币超过 155 天的比特币投资者。因此，LTH 鲸鱼将是长期持有其代币的大手，属于这一类别。更具体地说，这些是钱包中至少有 1,000 BTC 的 LTH。

Historically, LTHs have proven themselves to be the sticky hands of the market that don’t easily sell no matter what may be happening in the broader market. Considering that whales naturally hold a key position on the network due to their large holdings, the LTH whales, in particular, can be important investors to follow.

从历史上看，LTH 已证明自己是市场的粘手，无论大盘发生什么，它们都不会轻易出售。考虑到鲸鱼由于持有大量股份，自然在网络上占据着关键地位，尤其是 LTH 鲸鱼，可能是值得关注的重要投资者。

Here’s the chart for the Bitcoin Realized Price shared by Young Ju, showcasing how the metric’s value has changed for the old whales over the past decade:

下面是 Young Ju 分享的比特币实现价格图表，展示了过去十年中老鲸鱼的指标价值发生了怎样的变化：

As you can see in the graph, the spot price of Bitcoin is currently at a significant distance from the Realized Price of the old whales, which suggests that the patience of these sticky hands has provided them with massive profits.

如图所示，比特币的现货价格目前与老鲸鱼的实际价格差距很大，这表明这些粘手的耐心为他们提供了巨额利润。

But what’s more interesting is the historical pattern that the BTC price has followed with respect to this indicator. “For 15 years, BTC price has never dropped below the cost basis of long-term whales, which currently stands at $30K,” the CryptoQuant founder explained.

但更有趣的是 BTC 价格相对于该指标所遵循的历史模式。 CryptoQuant 创始人解释道：“15 年来，BTC 价格从未跌破长期鲸鱼的成本基础，目前为 3 万美元。”

However, the main point of Young Ju’s post wasn’t to reveal this fact; it was actually to show how the bet of Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy is looking safer by the day.

不过，Young Ju发帖的主要目的并不是要揭露这个事实，而是要揭露这个事实。这实际上是为了表明迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的微观策略（Microstrategy）的赌注如今看起来如何更加安全。

The analyst pointed out that based on BTC holdings alone, the liquidation price of the company would be $16,500. If the past pattern continues to hold for Bitcoin, then it might not dip below $30,000 again, which would suggest that the firm won’t be getting liquidated, except maybe during extreme circumstances.

该分析师指出，仅根据 BTC 持有量，该公司的清算价格将为 16,500 美元。如果过去的模式继续适用于比特币，那么它可能不会再次跌破 30,000 美元，这表明该公司不会被清算，除非在极端情况下。

BTC Price

比特币价格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around $107,000, showing an increase of almost 10% in the last seven days.

截至撰写本文时，比特币价格约为 107,000 美元，过去 7 天内上涨了近 10%。