比特幣從未跌破老鯨魚的實際價格

鏈上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的創始人透露了一個比特幣指標，該指標在過去 15 年來一直保持其價格。

The founder of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has highlighted a Bitcoin metric that has held for 15 years.

鏈上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的創始人強調了一個已經持續 15 年的比特幣指標。

Bitcoin Price Has Never Dipped Below Old Whales’ Realized Price

比特幣價格從未低於老鯨魚的實際價格

In a recent post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju discussed the Bitcoin Realized Price of old whales.

在 X 最近的一篇文章中，CryptoQuant 創辦人兼執行長 Ki Young Ju 討論了老鯨魚的比特幣實現價格。

The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that essentially tells us about the average cost basis of the investors or addresses on the BTC network.

「實際價格」是一個鏈上指標，本質上告訴我們 BTC 網路上投資者或地址的平均成本基礎。

When the asset’s spot price is trading above this indicator, it means the average holder can be assumed to be net positive in terms of profit. On the other hand, the BTC value being below the metric would imply the prevalence of loss in the market.

當資產的現貨價格高於該指標時，就表示普通持有者的利潤可以假定為淨正值。另一方面，比特幣價值低於該指標將意味著市場普遍存在虧損。

In the context of the current topic, we’re interested in the Realized Price of a specific segment of the sector: the old whales, which are also called long-term holder whales.

在當前主題的背景下，我們感興趣的是該行業特定部分的已實現價格：老鯨魚，也稱為長期持有鯨魚。

The long-term holders (LTHs) are the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins for over 155 days. As such, the LTH whales would be the large hands that have kept their coins不动 for long enough to fall into this category. To be more specific, these are the LTHs with at least 1,000 BTC in their wallets.

長期持有者（LTH）是持有比特幣超過 155 天的比特幣投資者。因此，LTH 鯨魚將是長期持有其代幣的大手，足以屬於這一類別。更具體地說，這些是錢包中至少有 1,000 BTC 的 LTH。

Historically, LTHs have proven themselves to be the sticky hands of the market that don’t easily sell no matter what may be happening in the broader market. Considering that whales naturally hold a key position on the network due to their large holdings, the LTH whales, in particular, can be important investors to follow.

從歷史上看，LTH 已證明自己是市場的粘手，無論大盤發生什麼，它們都不會輕易出售。考慮到鯨魚由於持有大量股份，自然在網路上佔據關鍵地位，尤其是 LTH 鯨魚，可能是值得關注的重要投資者。

Here’s the chart for the Bitcoin Realized Price shared by Young Ju, showcasing how the metric’s value has changed for the old whales over the past decade:

以下是 Young Ju 分享的比特幣實現價格圖表，展示了過去十年中老鯨魚的指標價值發生了怎樣的變化：

As you can see in the graph, the spot price of Bitcoin is currently at a significant distance from the Realized Price of the old whales, which suggests that the patience of these sticky hands has provided them with massive profits.

如圖所示，比特幣的現貨價格目前與老鯨魚的實際價格相差很大，這表明這些黏手的耐心為他們提供了巨額利潤。

But what’s more interesting is the historical pattern that the BTC price has followed with respect to this indicator. “For 15 years, BTC price has never dropped below the cost basis of long-term whales, which currently stands at $30K,” the CryptoQuant founder explained.

但更有趣的是 BTC 價格相對於該指標所遵循的歷史模式。 CryptoQuant 創辦人解釋道：“15 年來，BTC 價格從未跌破長期鯨魚的成本基礎，目前為 3 萬美元。”

However, the main point of Young Ju’s post wasn’t to reveal this fact; it was actually to show how the bet of Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy is looking safer by the day.

不過，Young Ju發文的主要目的並不是要揭露這個事實，而是要揭露這個事實。這實際上是為了表明邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的微觀策略（Microstrategy）的賭注如今看起來如何更加安全。

The analyst pointed out that based on BTC holdings alone, the liquidation price of the company would be $16,500. If the past pattern continues to hold for Bitcoin, then it might not dip below $30,000 again, which would suggest that the firm won’t be getting liquidated, except maybe during extreme circumstances.

該分析師指出，僅根據 BTC 持有量，該公司的清算價格將為 16,500 美元。如果過去的模式繼續適用於比特幣，那麼它可能不會再次跌破 30,000 美元，這表明該公司不會被清算，除非在極端情況下。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around $107,000, showing an increase of almost 10% in the last seven days.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣價格約為 107,000 美元，過去 7 天上漲了近 10%。