CryptoQuant首席执行官说，比特币不再定义Altcoin季节

有时，分析师反复宣布了ALT季节的到来，这是非比币资产优于表现的时期。

Several analysts have repeatedly declared the arrival of alt season on multiple occasions.

几位分析师多次宣布了ALT季节的到来。

This period is characterized by the outperformance of non-Bitcoin assets. However, altcoins have largely failed to generate excitement or reach new all-time highs like Bitcoin (BTC).

这一时期的特征是非比币资产的表现。但是，AltCoins在很大程度上未能产生兴奋或达到比特币（BTC）等新的历史高潮。

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the tide may finally be turning. In a Feb. 21 post, Ju claimed that the altcoin season has officially begun.

据CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju说，潮流可能最终转向。在2月21日的一篇文章中，JU声称Altcoin季节已正式开始。

But how true is his position, considering that many altcoins are still significantly down from their peaks?

但是，考虑到许多山顶的峰值仍然显着下降，他的立场有多真实？

Bitcoin No Longer Defines Altcoin Season, Says CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant首席执行官说，比特币不再定义Altcoin季节

Ju defended his stance by pointing out that many market observers still rely on Bitcoin dominance to gauge altcoin season. However, he argued that this is no longer the key indicator, as stablecoin movement and volume have now taken the lead.

JU指出，许多市场观察家仍然依靠比特币优势来衡量Altcoin季节，从而捍卫了自己的立场。但是，他认为这不再是关键指标，因为Stablecoin运动和数量现在已经带头。

Instead, the CryptoQuant CEO emphasized trading volume as the main metric. He highlighted that altcoin trading volume has recently more than doubled Bitcoin’s, calling it a highly selective alt season.

取而代之的是，加密首席执行官强调交易量是主要指标。他强调说，Altcoin交易量最近使比特币翻了一番，称其为高度选择性的ALT季节。

“Alt season has begun. No direct BTC-to-alt rotation, but stablecoin holders are favoring alts. Alt volume is 2.7x BTC. BTC Dominance no longer defines alt season—trading volume does,” Ju stated while sharing an image of the Bitcoin to altcoin volume on centralized exchanges.

“ Alt季节已经开始。没有直接的BTC-to-Alt旋转，但是Stablecoin持有人偏爱Alts。 Alt卷为2.7倍BTC。 BTC的优势不再定义Alt季节 - 交易量确实如此。”

Interestingly, Ju’s position aligns with what he said on Jan. 9. During that period, the analytic platform’s CEO noted that altcoins have rarely seen fresh capital.

有趣的是，JU的立场与他在1月9日所说的。在那个时期，该分析平台的首席执行官指出，Altcoins很少见到新的资本。

Due to that, only a few assets with great utility and narrative will perform well. He also stated the same thing in November 2024, noting that only a few tokens will hit or surpass that previous all-time high.

因此，只有少数具有出色实用性和叙述的资产会表现良好。他还在2024年11月说了同一件事，并指出只有少数几个令牌会击中或超过以前的历史最高水平。

This stance comes as no surprise, given that much of the altcoin market has struggled to match Bitcoin’s performance.

鉴于大部分Altcoin市场都在努力匹配比特币的性能，因此这种立场并不奇怪。

On one hand, Ju’s position might be valid, especially as some altcoins have put impressive performances lately. For instance, in the last 24 hours, Story’s (IP) price has increased by 55%. Sonic (S) and Maker (MKR) have jumped by 18 while seeing an increase in trading volume.

一方面，JU的位置可能是有效的，尤其是由于一些Altcoins最近表现出色的表现。例如，在过去的24小时内，Story（IP）价格上涨了55％。 Sonic（S）和制造商（MKR）在看到交易量增加的同时增长了18。

At the same time, it could be too early to verify that the uptrend will continue.

同时，验证上升趋势将继续下去可能还为时过早。

Data Says Otherwise

数据说其他情况

Nonetheless, it is difficult to confirm if alt season has actually started even without considering Bitcoin’s dominance, which is 61%.

尽管如此，即使没有考虑比特币的统治地位，也很难确认ALT季节是否确实开始，即61％。

According to the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks the performance of the top 50 cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, it is now at 33. This marks a decline from a rating of 61 on Jan. 31.

根据Altcoin季节指数的数据，该指数跟踪了相对于比特币的前50个加密货币的性能，现在为33。这标志着1月31日的61个评分下降。

This suggests that only a handful of the top 50 non-BTC assets have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days.

这表明在过去的90天内，只有少数几个非BTC资产的比特币优于比特币。

While alt season may not have fully begun, it could be in its preliminary stages if we go by the metric the CryptoQuant CEO used.

虽然ALT季节可能尚未完全开始，但如果我们使用的是CryptoQuant CEO所使用的指标，则可能处于初步阶段。

Another Analyst’s Position

另一个分析师的立场

Contrary to Ju’s view, analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin dominance remains crucial. On Feb. 19, Cowen, who is also the founder of IntoTheCryptoVerse, revealed that he once believed the ALT/BTC pair would continue to bleed—and he still maintains that stance.

与JU的观点相反，分析师本杰明·科文（Benjamin Cowen）认为，比特币优势仍然至关重要。 2月19日，科恩（Cowen）也是IntotheCryptoverse的创始人，他透露，他曾经相信Alt/BTC对将继续流血 - 他仍然坚持这一立场。

Regarding alt season, Cowen emphasized that the ETH/BTC pair must hit its bottom and begin trending higher for confirmation. However, he also stated that rising Bitcoin dominance is a net positive for altcoins.

关于ALT季节，Cowen强调，ETH/BTC对必须击中其底部，并开始更高趋势以进行确认。但是，他还指出，比特币优势升高是山寨币的净净值。

“In order to get “ALT season” like so many people want, ETH/BTC needs to bottom and start trending higher. As long as ETH/BTC goes lower, then ALT season is delayed. So many people assume that BTC dominance going higher is a negative thing for crypto, when in reality it is a positive thing,” The analyst posted on Feb. 14.

“为了像许多人想要的那样获得“ ALT季节”，ETH/BTC需要降低并开始更高的趋势。只要ETH/BTC降低，ALT季节就会延迟。这么多人认为，BTC的主导地位对加密货币来说是负面的事情，而实际上这是一件积极的事情。”分析师于2月14日发布。

What’s the Verdict?

什么是判决？

In conclusion, while the CryptoQuant CEO’s position hints that altcoin season could be on the horizon, prices have not steadily increased for 30 days, not to mention 90.

总而言之，尽管加密首席执行官的立场表明，Altcoin季节可能会出现，但价格并未在30天内稳步上涨，更不用说90。

In addition, the Altcoin Season Index confirms that the period has not arrived yet. Whether Bitcoin dominance or trading volume will be the key metric to measure it remains something to debate about in the future as only time will tell.

此外，Altcoin季节指数确认该时期尚未到来。比特币优势或交易量是否是衡量它的关键指标，这仍然是将来的辩论。