Bitcoin No Longer Defines Altcoin Season, Says CryptoQuant CEO

On several occasions, analysts have repeatedly declared the arrival of alt season—the period when non-Bitcoin assets outperform.

Several analysts have repeatedly declared the arrival of alt season on multiple occasions.

This period is characterized by the outperformance of non-Bitcoin assets. However, altcoins have largely failed to generate excitement or reach new all-time highs like Bitcoin (BTC).

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the tide may finally be turning. In a Feb. 21 post, Ju claimed that the altcoin season has officially begun.

But how true is his position, considering that many altcoins are still significantly down from their peaks?

Bitcoin No Longer Defines Altcoin Season, Says CryptoQuant CEO

Ju defended his stance by pointing out that many market observers still rely on Bitcoin dominance to gauge altcoin season. However, he argued that this is no longer the key indicator, as stablecoin movement and volume have now taken the lead.

Instead, the CryptoQuant CEO emphasized trading volume as the main metric. He highlighted that altcoin trading volume has recently more than doubled Bitcoin’s, calling it a highly selective alt season.

“Alt season has begun. No direct BTC-to-alt rotation, but stablecoin holders are favoring alts. Alt volume is 2.7x BTC. BTC Dominance no longer defines alt season—trading volume does,” Ju stated while sharing an image of the Bitcoin to altcoin volume on centralized exchanges.

Interestingly, Ju’s position aligns with what he said on Jan. 9. During that period, the analytic platform’s CEO noted that altcoins have rarely seen fresh capital.

Due to that, only a few assets with great utility and narrative will perform well. He also stated the same thing in November 2024, noting that only a few tokens will hit or surpass that previous all-time high.

This stance comes as no surprise, given that much of the altcoin market has struggled to match Bitcoin’s performance.

On one hand, Ju’s position might be valid, especially as some altcoins have put impressive performances lately. For instance, in the last 24 hours, Story’s (IP) price has increased by 55%. Sonic (S) and Maker (MKR) have jumped by 18 while seeing an increase in trading volume.

At the same time, it could be too early to verify that the uptrend will continue.

Data Says Otherwise

Nonetheless, it is difficult to confirm if alt season has actually started even without considering Bitcoin’s dominance, which is 61%.

According to the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks the performance of the top 50 cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, it is now at 33. This marks a decline from a rating of 61 on Jan. 31.

This suggests that only a handful of the top 50 non-BTC assets have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days.

While alt season may not have fully begun, it could be in its preliminary stages if we go by the metric the CryptoQuant CEO used.

Another Analyst’s Position

Contrary to Ju’s view, analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin dominance remains crucial. On Feb. 19, Cowen, who is also the founder of IntoTheCryptoVerse, revealed that he once believed the ALT/BTC pair would continue to bleed—and he still maintains that stance.

Regarding alt season, Cowen emphasized that the ETH/BTC pair must hit its bottom and begin trending higher for confirmation. However, he also stated that rising Bitcoin dominance is a net positive for altcoins.

“In order to get “ALT season” like so many people want, ETH/BTC needs to bottom and start trending higher. As long as ETH/BTC goes lower, then ALT season is delayed. So many people assume that BTC dominance going higher is a negative thing for crypto, when in reality it is a positive thing,” The analyst posted on Feb. 14.

What’s the Verdict?

In conclusion, while the CryptoQuant CEO’s position hints that altcoin season could be on the horizon, prices have not steadily increased for 30 days, not to mention 90.

In addition, the Altcoin Season Index confirms that the period has not arrived yet. Whether Bitcoin dominance or trading volume will be the key metric to measure it remains something to debate about in the future as only time will tell.