CryptoQuant首席執行官說，比特幣不再定義Altcoin季節

有時，分析師反复宣布了ALT季節的到來，這是非比幣資產優於表現的時期。

Several analysts have repeatedly declared the arrival of alt season on multiple occasions.

幾位分析師多次宣布了ALT季節的到來。

This period is characterized by the outperformance of non-Bitcoin assets. However, altcoins have largely failed to generate excitement or reach new all-time highs like Bitcoin (BTC).

這一時期的特徵是非比幣資產的表現。但是，AltCoins在很大程度上未能產生興奮或達到比特幣（BTC）等新的歷史高潮。

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the tide may finally be turning. In a Feb. 21 post, Ju claimed that the altcoin season has officially begun.

據CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju說，潮流可能最終轉向。在2月21日的一篇文章中，JU聲稱Altcoin季節已正式開始。

But how true is his position, considering that many altcoins are still significantly down from their peaks?

但是，考慮到許多山頂的峰值仍然顯著下降，他的立場有多真實？

Bitcoin No Longer Defines Altcoin Season, Says CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant首席執行官說，比特幣不再定義Altcoin季節

Ju defended his stance by pointing out that many market observers still rely on Bitcoin dominance to gauge altcoin season. However, he argued that this is no longer the key indicator, as stablecoin movement and volume have now taken the lead.

JU指出，許多市場觀察家仍然依靠比特幣優勢來衡量Altcoin季節，從而捍衛了自己的立場。但是，他認為這不再是關鍵指標，因為Stablecoin運動和數量現在已經帶頭。

Instead, the CryptoQuant CEO emphasized trading volume as the main metric. He highlighted that altcoin trading volume has recently more than doubled Bitcoin’s, calling it a highly selective alt season.

取而代之的是，加密首席執行官強調交易量是主要指標。他強調說，Altcoin交易量最近使比特幣翻了一番，稱其為高度選擇性的ALT季節。

“Alt season has begun. No direct BTC-to-alt rotation, but stablecoin holders are favoring alts. Alt volume is 2.7x BTC. BTC Dominance no longer defines alt season—trading volume does,” Ju stated while sharing an image of the Bitcoin to altcoin volume on centralized exchanges.

“ Alt季節已經開始。沒有直接的BTC-to-Alt旋轉，但是Stablecoin持有人偏愛Alts。 Alt卷為2.7倍BTC。 BTC的優勢不再定義Alt季節 - 交易量確實如此。”

Interestingly, Ju’s position aligns with what he said on Jan. 9. During that period, the analytic platform’s CEO noted that altcoins have rarely seen fresh capital.

有趣的是，JU的立場與他在1月9日所說的。在那個時期，該分析平台的首席執行官指出，Altcoins很少見到新的資本。

Due to that, only a few assets with great utility and narrative will perform well. He also stated the same thing in November 2024, noting that only a few tokens will hit or surpass that previous all-time high.

因此，只有少數具有出色實用性和敘述的資產會表現良好。他還在2024年11月說了同一件事，並指出只有少數幾個令牌會擊中或超過以前的歷史最高水平。

This stance comes as no surprise, given that much of the altcoin market has struggled to match Bitcoin’s performance.

鑑於大部分Altcoin市場都在努力匹配比特幣的性能，因此這種立場並不奇怪。

On one hand, Ju’s position might be valid, especially as some altcoins have put impressive performances lately. For instance, in the last 24 hours, Story’s (IP) price has increased by 55%. Sonic (S) and Maker (MKR) have jumped by 18 while seeing an increase in trading volume.

一方面，JU的位置可能是有效的，尤其是由於一些Altcoins最近表現出色的表現。例如，在過去的24小時內，Story（IP）價格上漲了55％。 Sonic（S）和製造商（MKR）在看到交易量增加的同時增長了18。

At the same time, it could be too early to verify that the uptrend will continue.

同時，驗證上升趨勢將繼續下去可能還為時過早。

Data Says Otherwise

數據說其他情況

Nonetheless, it is difficult to confirm if alt season has actually started even without considering Bitcoin’s dominance, which is 61%.

儘管如此，即使沒有考慮比特幣的統治地位，也很難確認ALT季節是否確實開始，即61％。

According to the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks the performance of the top 50 cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, it is now at 33. This marks a decline from a rating of 61 on Jan. 31.

根據Altcoin季節指數的數據，該指數跟踪了相對於比特幣的前50個加密貨幣的性能，現在為33。這標誌著1月31日的61個評分下降。

This suggests that only a handful of the top 50 non-BTC assets have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days.

這表明在過去的90天內，只有少數幾個非BTC資產的比特幣優於比特幣。

While alt season may not have fully begun, it could be in its preliminary stages if we go by the metric the CryptoQuant CEO used.

雖然ALT季節可能尚未完全開始，但如果我們使用的是CryptoQuant CEO所使用的指標，則可能處於初步階段。

Another Analyst’s Position

另一個分析師的立場

Contrary to Ju’s view, analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin dominance remains crucial. On Feb. 19, Cowen, who is also the founder of IntoTheCryptoVerse, revealed that he once believed the ALT/BTC pair would continue to bleed—and he still maintains that stance.

與JU的觀點相反，分析師本傑明·科文（Benjamin Cowen）認為，比特幣優勢仍然至關重要。 2月19日，科恩（Cowen）也是IntotheCryptoverse的創始人，他透露，他曾經相信Alt/BTC對將繼續流血 - 他仍然堅持這一立場。

Regarding alt season, Cowen emphasized that the ETH/BTC pair must hit its bottom and begin trending higher for confirmation. However, he also stated that rising Bitcoin dominance is a net positive for altcoins.

關於ALT季節，Cowen強調，ETH/BTC對必須擊中其底部，並開始更高趨勢以進行確認。但是，他還指出，比特幣優勢升高是山寨幣的淨淨值。

“In order to get “ALT season” like so many people want, ETH/BTC needs to bottom and start trending higher. As long as ETH/BTC goes lower, then ALT season is delayed. So many people assume that BTC dominance going higher is a negative thing for crypto, when in reality it is a positive thing,” The analyst posted on Feb. 14.

“為了像許多人想要的那樣獲得“ ALT季節”，ETH/BTC需要降低並開始更高的趨勢。只要ETH/BTC降低，ALT季節就會延遲。這麼多人認為，BTC的主導地位對加密貨幣來說是負面的事情，而實際上這是一件積極的事情。”分析師於2月14日發布。

What’s the Verdict?

什麼是判決？

In conclusion, while the CryptoQuant CEO’s position hints that altcoin season could be on the horizon, prices have not steadily increased for 30 days, not to mention 90.

總而言之，儘管加密首席執行官的立場表明，Altcoin季節可能會出現，但價格並未在30天內穩步上漲，更不用說90。

In addition, the Altcoin Season Index confirms that the period has not arrived yet. Whether Bitcoin dominance or trading volume will be the key metric to measure it remains something to debate about in the future as only time will tell.

此外，Altcoin季節指數確認該時期尚未到來。比特幣優勢或交易量是否是衡量它的關鍵指標，這仍然是將來的辯論。