比特币最近的下降不仅是一个加密货币问题，而且紧随主要科技股的表现非常紧密

比特币最近的下降不仅是一个加密货币问题，而且紧随苹果，特斯拉和微软等主要科技股的表现。

Bitcoin's recent price decline is closely linked to the performance of major tech stocks, which an economist at Standard Chartered has grouped together as the “Magnificent Seven plus Bitcoin.”

比特币最近的价格下跌与主要科技股的业绩密切相关，这是标准特许的经济学家将其归类为“巨大的七个加比特币”。

As the crypto market navigates a "risk-off" phase, investors are turning away from high-risk assets amid a bleak outlook and potential macroeconomic shifts.

当加密货币市场涉及“冒险”阶段时，投资者在黯淡的前景和潜在的宏观经济转变中偏离了高风险资产。

Top Tech Stocks and Bitcoin in Close Knit Group

顶级科技股和比特币紧密编织组

Geoff Kendrick, an economist at Standard Chartered, has been following a basket of seven large-cap tech stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Meta, and Samsung—which he calls the Magnificent Seven, plus Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered的经济学家Geoff Kendrick一直在追随七个大型科技股（Apple，Microsoft，Tesla，Tesla，Nvidia，Meta和Samsung）的篮子，他称其为七个巨大的七个，再加上比特币。

While Tesla has encountered difficulties, Meta and Apple have displayed greater resilience. However, the bulk of Bitcoin's price movements are being driven by broader market instability rather than internal crypto factors.

尽管特斯拉遇到困难，但梅塔和苹果表现出了更大的弹性。但是，大部分比特币的价格变动是由更广泛的市场不稳定而不是内部加密因素驱动的。

"The Magnificent Seven are all in deep bear markets, apart from Apple and Meta which have shown some resilience, while Tesla is struggling in particular. If the US administration manages to reach a last-minute deal to postpone the new trade tariffs on Canada, we might see a slight recovery in the stock market, which could also benefit Bitcoin."

“宏伟的七个都在深熊市中，除了苹果和元表现出了一些韧性，而特斯拉尤其是在挣扎。如果美国政府设法达成最后一分钟的交易来推迟加拿大的新贸易关税，我们可能会看到股票市场的轻微恢复，这也可能使比特币受益。”

Also Read: Best Crypto to Buy Guide: Explores Hottest Coins For March 2025

另请阅读：购买指南的最佳加密货币：探索2025年3月的最热硬币

The Build-Up to a Potential Bitcoin Rebound

潜在比特币反弹的积累

According to Kendrick, Bitcoin needs one of two things to start bouncing back: either stocks, especially tech, begin climbing again, or the Federal Reserve hints at cutting interest rates.

根据肯德里克（Kendrick）的说法，比特币需要两件事之一才能开始弹跳：尤其是技术的股票开始攀升，或者美联储暗示降低利率。

"A small possibility exists that we could witness a large move in Bitcoin if the Fed signals at its next meeting, in late April, that it is pivoting towards looser monetary policy—for instance, a rate cut in May. Currently, traders assign a 50% likelihood to such a scenario."

“如果美联储在4月下旬的下一次会议上发出信号，我们可能会目睹比特币的一小部分可能性，例如，它正在朝着更松散的货币政策转移，例如，5月。目前，交易者为这种情况分配了50％的可能性。”

"A stronger hint of a rate cut or, even better, an actual cut at the meeting could be the spark that ignites a rapid rally in Bitcoin from the current price level of $76,500 to $69,000, in our view. Nevertheless, we remain optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term. Our forecasts indicate that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 if the Fed does begin to ease up."

“更强烈的提示降低速率，甚至更好的是，在会议上的实际削减可能是火花可能会在当前的价格水平从76,500美元到69,000美元的迅速集会，在我们看来，长期我们对比特币仍然对比特币保持乐观。我们的预测表明，如果比特币在2025年结束时可能会达到200,000美元，则可以在20225年开始使用。

The upcoming meeting of the Fed, scheduled for March 19, will be a crucial event to monitor as it could influence the trajectory of Bitcoin's price.

原定于3月19日举行的美联储即将举行的会议将是一个关键的活动，因为它可能会影响比特币价格的轨迹。

"The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at its meeting later this month is 97%, which might disappoint investors and keep downward pressure on Bitcoin. In this scenario, we anticipate further price declines, potentially pushing Bitcoin to the $70,000 level. This downturn could also drag down other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana to some extent."

“美联储在本月晚些时候会议上保持利率不变的可能性为97％，这可能使投资者失望并保持对比特币的压力。在这种情况下，我们预计进一步的价格下降，可能会将比特币推向70,000美元的水平。这种下跌可能还会拖延以太坊和索拉纳（Ethereum and Solana）和某种程度的其他加密货币。”

Trump’s Trade Tariffs Might Affect Bitcoin

特朗普的贸易关税可能会影响比特币

Furthermore, the administration is planning to impose new trade tariffs, such as a 25% tax on all imports from Mexico and Canada, which is spooking the markets even more. This trade war could slow down economic growth and hurt riskier assets like stocks and crypto even more.

此外，政府计划征收新的贸易关税，例如对墨西哥和加拿大进口的所有进口税的税，这对市场更加震惊。这场贸易战可能会减缓经济增长，并损害股票和加密货币等风险更高的资产。

Some analysts believe that the administration’s hardline trade tactics are a deliberate gambit to pressure the Fed into cutting interest rates sooner. The theory is that the White House could spur the Fed to step in with rate relief by undermining market confidence and straining the economy.

一些分析人士认为，政府的艰难贸易策略是一种故意向美联储提早降低利率的善意。理论是，白宫可以通过破坏市场信心和劳累经济来促使美联储介入速度。

"Interest-rate futures have shifted rapidly to reflect growing expectations of Fed easing. As of the beginning of the year, traders assigned a 46% probability to a rate cut by May. However, this probability has since soared to nearly 90% as of yesterday. This shift in sentiment suggests that markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will have to respond to mounting economic and geopolitical risks in the coming months."

“利率期货已经迅速转移，反映了对美联储缓解的期望。截至年初，交易员分配了46％的可能性，到5月份降低的税率。然而，这种概率自昨天截至昨天开始飙升至近90％。这种观点的转变表明，这种市场越来越多地表明，市场越来越多地押注美联储的经济和地理宗教风险，这一概率越来越多。

After the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on a vast range of Chinese goods in September 2018, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of about 10% over the subsequent three months.

在2018年9月，特朗普政府对广泛的中国商品征收10％的关税之后，标准普尔500指数在随后的三个月中的下降约为10％。

Despite the recent rally in the stock market, which has been driven in part by optimism over a trade truce between the U.S. and China, equity markets have struggled amid the current mix of Fed tightening and trade disputes.

尽管最近在股票市场举行的集会，这部分是由于对美国和中国之间的贸易休战的乐观态度所驱动的，但在美联储收紧和贸易纠纷的混合中，股票市场仍在挣扎。

For instance, the S&P 500’s gain since the start of Trump’s second term is much smaller than during the equivalent period of his first term, reflecting weaker investor confidence and growth concerns.

例如，自特朗普第二任期开始以来，标准普尔500指数的收益远小于他的第一任期期间，这反映了投资者的信心和增长问题较弱。

The World Bank has also expressed concern over the potential impact of tariffs on the global economy, stating that they could reduce global trade by up to 7% and output by 1.5%.

世界银行还对关税对全球经济的潜在影响表示关注，并指出，它们可以将全球贸易减少多达7％，而产出1.5％。

"The good news is that the administration might postpone the new trade tariffs if a last-minute deal is reached to keep the North American trade agreement after all, and if the U.S. manages to strike a new trade deal with China. In this scenario, we might see a slight recovery in

“好消息是，如果达成最后一刻的交易以保持北美贸易协定，如果美国设法与中国达成新的贸易协议，则政府可能会推迟新的贸易关税。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到略有恢复