比特幣最近的下降不僅是一個加密貨幣問題，而且緊隨主要科技股的表現非常緊密

比特幣最近的下降不僅是一個加密貨幣問題，而且緊隨蘋果，特斯拉和微軟等主要科技股的表現。

Bitcoin's recent price decline is closely linked to the performance of major tech stocks, which an economist at Standard Chartered has grouped together as the “Magnificent Seven plus Bitcoin.”

比特幣最近的價格下跌與主要科技股的業績密切相關，這是標準特許的經濟學家將其歸類為“巨大的七個加比特幣”。

As the crypto market navigates a "risk-off" phase, investors are turning away from high-risk assets amid a bleak outlook and potential macroeconomic shifts.

當加密貨幣市場涉及“冒險”階段時，投資者在黯淡的前景和潛在的宏觀經濟轉變中偏離了高風險資產。

Top Tech Stocks and Bitcoin in Close Knit Group

頂級科技股和比特幣緊密編織組

Geoff Kendrick, an economist at Standard Chartered, has been following a basket of seven large-cap tech stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Meta, and Samsung—which he calls the Magnificent Seven, plus Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered的經濟學家Geoff Kendrick一直在追隨七個大型科技股（Apple，Microsoft，Tesla，Tesla，Nvidia，Meta和Samsung）的籃子，他稱其為七個巨大的七個，再加上比特幣。

While Tesla has encountered difficulties, Meta and Apple have displayed greater resilience. However, the bulk of Bitcoin's price movements are being driven by broader market instability rather than internal crypto factors.

儘管特斯拉遇到困難，但梅塔和蘋果表現出了更大的彈性。但是，大部分比特幣的價格變動是由更廣泛的市場不穩定而不是內部加密因素驅動的。

"The Magnificent Seven are all in deep bear markets, apart from Apple and Meta which have shown some resilience, while Tesla is struggling in particular. If the US administration manages to reach a last-minute deal to postpone the new trade tariffs on Canada, we might see a slight recovery in the stock market, which could also benefit Bitcoin."

“宏偉的七個都在深熊市中，除了蘋果和元表現出了一些韌性，而特斯拉尤其是在掙扎。如果美國政府設法達成最後一分鐘的交易來推遲加拿大的新貿易關稅，我們可能會看到股票市場的輕微恢復，這也可能使比特幣受益。”

Also Read: Best Crypto to Buy Guide: Explores Hottest Coins For March 2025

另請閱讀：購買指南的最佳加密貨幣：探索2025年3月的最熱硬幣

The Build-Up to a Potential Bitcoin Rebound

潛在比特幣反彈的積累

According to Kendrick, Bitcoin needs one of two things to start bouncing back: either stocks, especially tech, begin climbing again, or the Federal Reserve hints at cutting interest rates.

根據肯德里克（Kendrick）的說法，比特幣需要兩件事之一才能開始彈跳：尤其是技術的股票開始攀升，或者美聯儲暗示降低利率。

"A small possibility exists that we could witness a large move in Bitcoin if the Fed signals at its next meeting, in late April, that it is pivoting towards looser monetary policy—for instance, a rate cut in May. Currently, traders assign a 50% likelihood to such a scenario."

“如果美聯儲在4月下旬的下一次會議上發出信號，我們可能會目睹比特幣的一小部分可能性，例如，它正在朝著更鬆散的貨幣政策轉移，例如，5月。目前，交易者為這種情況分配了50％的可能性。”

"A stronger hint of a rate cut or, even better, an actual cut at the meeting could be the spark that ignites a rapid rally in Bitcoin from the current price level of $76,500 to $69,000, in our view. Nevertheless, we remain optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term. Our forecasts indicate that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 if the Fed does begin to ease up."

“更強烈的提示降低速率，甚至更好的是，在會議上的實際削減可能是火花可能會在當前的價格水平從76,500美元到69,000美元的迅速集會，在我們看來，長期我們對比特幣仍然對比特幣保持樂觀。我們的預測表明，如果比特幣在2025年結束時可能會達到200,000美元，則可以在20225年開始使用。

The upcoming meeting of the Fed, scheduled for March 19, will be a crucial event to monitor as it could influence the trajectory of Bitcoin's price.

原定於3月19日舉行的美聯儲即將舉行的會議將是一個關鍵的活動，因為它可能會影響比特幣價格的軌跡。

"The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at its meeting later this month is 97%, which might disappoint investors and keep downward pressure on Bitcoin. In this scenario, we anticipate further price declines, potentially pushing Bitcoin to the $70,000 level. This downturn could also drag down other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana to some extent."

“美聯儲在本月晚些時候會議上保持利率不變的可能性為97％，這可能使投資者失望並保持對比特幣的壓力。在這種情況下，我們預計進一步的價格下降，可能會將比特幣推向70,000美元的水平。這種下跌可能還會拖延以太坊和索拉納（Ethereum and Solana）和某種程度的其他加密貨幣。”

Trump’s Trade Tariffs Might Affect Bitcoin

特朗普的貿易關稅可能會影響比特幣

Furthermore, the administration is planning to impose new trade tariffs, such as a 25% tax on all imports from Mexico and Canada, which is spooking the markets even more. This trade war could slow down economic growth and hurt riskier assets like stocks and crypto even more.

此外，政府計劃徵收新的貿易關稅，例如對墨西哥和加拿大進口的所有進口稅的稅，這對市場更加震驚。這場貿易戰可能會減緩經濟增長，並損害股票和加密貨幣等風險更高的資產。

Some analysts believe that the administration’s hardline trade tactics are a deliberate gambit to pressure the Fed into cutting interest rates sooner. The theory is that the White House could spur the Fed to step in with rate relief by undermining market confidence and straining the economy.

一些分析人士認為，政府的艱難貿易策略是一種故意向美聯儲提早降低利率的善意。理論是，白宮可以通過破壞市場信心和勞累經濟來促使美聯儲介入速度。

"Interest-rate futures have shifted rapidly to reflect growing expectations of Fed easing. As of the beginning of the year, traders assigned a 46% probability to a rate cut by May. However, this probability has since soared to nearly 90% as of yesterday. This shift in sentiment suggests that markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will have to respond to mounting economic and geopolitical risks in the coming months."

“利率期貨已經迅速轉移，反映了對美聯儲緩解的期望。截至年初，交易員分配了46％的可能性，到5月份降低的稅率。然而，這種概率自昨天截至昨天開始飆升至近90％。這種觀點的轉變表明，這種市場越來越多地表明，市場越來越多地押注美聯儲的經濟和地理宗教風險，這一概率越來越多。

After the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on a vast range of Chinese goods in September 2018, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of about 10% over the subsequent three months.

在2018年9月，特朗普政府對廣泛的中國商品徵收10％的關稅之後，標準普爾500指數在隨後的三個月中的下降約為10％。

Despite the recent rally in the stock market, which has been driven in part by optimism over a trade truce between the U.S. and China, equity markets have struggled amid the current mix of Fed tightening and trade disputes.

儘管最近在股票市場舉行的集會，這部分是由於對美國和中國之間的貿易休戰的樂觀態度所驅動的，但在美聯儲收緊和貿易糾紛的混合中，股票市場仍在掙扎。

For instance, the S&P 500’s gain since the start of Trump’s second term is much smaller than during the equivalent period of his first term, reflecting weaker investor confidence and growth concerns.

例如，自特朗普第二任期開始以來，標準普爾500指數的收益遠小於他的第一任期期間，這反映了投資者的信心和增長問題較弱。

The World Bank has also expressed concern over the potential impact of tariffs on the global economy, stating that they could reduce global trade by up to 7% and output by 1.5%.

世界銀行還對關稅對全球經濟的潛在影響表示關注，並指出，它們可以將全球貿易減少多達7％，而產出1.5％。

"The good news is that the administration might postpone the new trade tariffs if a last-minute deal is reached to keep the North American trade agreement after all, and if the U.S. manages to strike a new trade deal with China. In this scenario, we might see a slight recovery in

“好消息是，如果達成最後一刻的交易以保持北美貿易協定，如果美國設法與中國達成新的貿易協議，則政府可能會推遲新的貿易關稅。在這種情況下，我們可能會看到略有恢復