比特币处于“危险区”：减半后价格下跌和市场洞察

比特币减半后的反弹后，其价格下跌了 6.49%，进入了历史上经历过回调的“危险区”。分析师 Rekt Capital 建议两周内可能回撤至 60,000 美元，这与过去的减半趋势类似。比特币现货 ETF 净流出 2.17 亿美元，其中 GBTC 贡献 1.38 亿美元。

Bitcoin's Post-Halving Performance and the 'Danger Zone'

比特币减半后的表现和“危险区”

Following the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event on April 19, the cryptocurrency's price has exhibited a perplexing trajectory, initially surging by nearly 10% to reach $67,020 on April 24, only to subsequently decline by 6.49% in the past two days, falling below the $63,000 mark.

继4月19日备受期待的比特币减半事件之后，该加密货币的价格呈现出令人困惑的轨迹，最初在4月24日飙升近10%，达到67,020美元，但随后在过去两天下跌6.49%，跌破63,000美元标记。

This unexpected price drop has captivated the attention of investors and market observers, prompting renowned analyst Rekt Capital to propose a theory that sheds light on Bitcoin's recent decline and potentially forecasts its future price movements.

这种意外的价格下跌吸引了投资者和市场观察人士的注意，促使著名分析师 Rekt Capital 提出了一种理论，揭示了比特币近期的下跌趋势，并有可能预测其未来的价格走势。

Post-Halving 'Danger Zone'

减半后的“危险区”

In a post published on April 26, Rekt Capital asserts that Bitcoin has entered the post-halving "Danger Zone," a period characterized by historical price corrections following halving events. In 2016, for instance, Bitcoin experienced price retraces in the three weeks following the halving, with a decline of approximately 11%.

Rekt Capital 在 4 月 26 日发表的一篇文章中声称，比特币已进入减半后的“危险区”，这一时期的特点是减半事件后的历史价格调整。以2016年为例，比特币在减半后的三周内经历了价格回调，跌幅约为11%。

Rekt Capital postulates that the current price fall over the past two days indicates that Bitcoin is now within the post-halving "Danger Zone" of the current bull cycle. Should Bitcoin mirror past price behavior during this phase, it could potentially drop to $60,000 within the next two weeks, as projected by the analyst.

Rekt Capital 假设，过去两天的当前价格下跌表明比特币目前处于当前牛市周期减半后的“危险区”。如果比特币在这一阶段反映过去的价格行为，那么正如分析师预测的那样，它可能会在未来两周内跌至 60,000 美元。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,672, representing a 2.44% decline over the past day and an overall loss of 11.16% in market value during the past month.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 62,672 美元，较过去一天下跌 2.44%，过去一个月市值总体下跌 11.16%。

Bitcoin ETFs: Minor Inflows and Outflows

比特币 ETF：小幅流入和流出

Despite the recent price dip, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced both inflows and outflows, with data from SoSoValue indicating net outflows of $217 million on April 25. Grayscale's GBTC, the largest Bitcoin spot ETF, accounted for $138 million of these outflows, bringing its total outflows to nearly $17 billion.

尽管近期价格下跌，但比特币现货 ETF 仍经历了流入和流出，SoSoValue 的数据显示，4 月 25 日净流出达 2.17 亿美元。最大的比特币现货 ETF Grayscale 旗下的 GBTC 流出量达 1.38 亿美元，使其总流出额达到 1.38 亿美元。资金流出接近170亿美元。

Notably, Fidelity's FBTC and Valkyrie's BRRR recorded net outflows for the first time, estimated at $22 million and $20 million, respectively. ARK Invest's ARKB and Bitwise's BITB also witnessed a decline in investment on Thursday.

值得注意的是，Fidelity 的 FBTC 和 Valkyrie 的 BRRR 首次录得净流出，估计分别为 2200 万美元和 2000 万美元。 ARK Invest 的 ARKB 和 Bitwise 的 BITB 周四的投资也出现下降。

Conversely, all other Bitcoin spot ETFs, with the exception of Franklin Tempton's EZBC, managed to maintain zero net flows. EZBC saw a modest net inflow of $1.87 million. As of writing, the combined value of BTC spot ETFs stands at $128 billion, indicating significant growth since their trading debut on January 11.

相反，除富兰克林邓普顿的 EZBC 外，所有其他比特币现货 ETF 均设法维持零净流量。 EZBC 出现 187 万美元的适度净流入。截至撰写本文时，BTC 现货 ETF 的总价值为 1280 亿美元，表明自 1 月 11 日首次交易以来出现了显着增长。

Conclusion

结论

The post-halving performance of Bitcoin remains uncertain, with analysts such as Rekt Capital suggesting the potential for further price declines within the next two weeks. However, it is crucial to note that investing in cryptocurrencies carries inherent risks, and investors are strongly advised to conduct thorough research and exercise caution before making any investment decisions.

比特币减半后的表现仍不确定，Rekt Capital 等分析师表示，未来两周内价格可能进一步下跌。然而，值得注意的是，投资加密货币具有固有风险，强烈建议投资者在做出任何投资决定之前进行彻底研究并谨慎行事。